WotLK to MoP: A Trend Analysis of Raiding Difficulty.

[D4NNYB0Y]

That is true, I have the experience of leveling alts as rushing them up, this is what I see amongst myself and the people I know. But then you also need to understand, that a lot of people that start this game has friends that are heroic raiders, and they tell them "This is how you level up the fastest", and they follow that route.

Do they? Heroic Raiders make up less than 1% of the player population. Likely a lot less.

[Deleted]

Do they? Heroic Raiders make up less than 1% of the player population. Likely a lot less.

There are many "heroic raiders" that are not currently raiding heroic content that still have the same mindset, aswell as several people that got 'taught' by heroic raiders that never actually stepped into heroic raiders.

Also, say that I start playing a new character, and I wonder how I should level it up. I have 4 friends playing WoW. Do I ask the one that is not raiding, the one that is only playing WoW to do archeology, the one that is raiding LFR or the one that is raiding Heroic. It is fairly likely I would ask the heroic raider for tips on how to play the game well rather than the lower progressed ones.

[D4NNYB0Y]

There are many "heroic raiders" that are not currently raiding heroic content that still have the same mindset, aswell as several people that got 'taught' by heroic raiders that never actually stepped into heroic raiders.

Also, say that I start playing a new character, and I wonder how I should level it up. I have 4 friends playing WoW. Do I ask the one that is not raiding, the one that is only playing WoW to do archeology, the one that is raiding LFR or the one that is raiding Heroic. It is fairly likely I would ask the heroic raider for tips on how to play the game well rather than the lower progressed ones.

Heroic Raiders have always been an incredibly small portion of the playerbase. Even if every one of them was around today the number of players that might know a Heroic Raider is likely so small they're statistically insignificant.

As to your next point: what is that player's aspirations? What does he actually enjoy doing in video games or other MMOs? Unless he wants to be a Heroic Raider himself I doubt he would care one way or the other. He'd probably just play.

[chuck123]

Heroic Raiders have always been an incredibly small portion of the playerbase. Even if every one of them was around today the number of players that might know a Heroic Raider is likely so small they're statistically insignificant.

As to your next point: what is that player's aspirations? What does he actually enjoy doing in video games or other MMOs? Unless he wants to be a Heroic Raider himself I doubt he would care one way or the other. He'd probably just play.

Nike does shoes especially for certain players of certain sports. While those tailored versions obviously dont bring any revenue, they still sell millions of variants of that shoes to the joe averages out there. Same applies for raiders to a degree.

Even newbies do look at those with precious mounts/titles/gear when it sparkles and shines and some may want to get into raiding just because of that.
Hell, I think those people with their warglaives with exe/mongoose in your major cities, will still get silent appreciantion by some people.

[D4NNYB0Y]

Nike does shoes especially for certain players of certain sports. While those tailored versions obviously dont bring any revenue, they still sell millions of variants of that shoes to the joe averages out there. Same applies for raiders to a degree.

Even newbies do look at those with precious mounts/titles/gear when it sparkles and shines and some may want to get into raiding just because of that.
Hell, I think those people with their warglaives with exe/mongoose in your major cities, will still get silent appreciantion by some people.

But these same players quickly realize that it's never going to happen.

[VanishO2]

What we can get about all this is kinda simple (and explained so many times alread).

LFR = wotlk 10man. Except that there is no interaction, nothing. You just queue and mostly afk you way to the loot.

Also, most of the "complainers" were lying about "seeing the content" as LFR does exactly that, but still, ppl complained that they were not seeing "content" wich is clear that they're talking about loot. Wich is NOT content. Normal modes and Heroic modes are not new content. Except for a few things like Sinestra or Ra-den, normal/heroic is the same content.

The most "awesome" fact that is now there for everyone to see is that even the ppl who defended a easy game "'cause it's just a game" are leaving now because their most desired wish, LFR, is boring even for them. There is no progression (except for the artificial LFR wing gatting) because it is what those ppl asked for "I pay for it and have the right to clear the instance no matter what", there is no learning.

So what happens? They want more ilvl, they need to climb up dificulty (next step, normal mode, wich is basically what 25 used to be in wotlk) and of course, no LFR raider is prepared. It's funny that for it's 1st iteration, in DS, LFR and normal DS we're almost the same. Just a few things here and there in normal mode that you could show really fast (like spine where the tentacles would stun ppl in normal, but not in lfr), now, even tough there are a lot more mechanics in LFR that SHOULD get you ready for normal, they're almost all ignored because LFR player can't be bothered in dying/wiping since they'll leave.

In the end, this is really funny to see. Ppl got what they asked, saw it's crap, want to go next, but can't be bothered with it. If Blizzard just conced it by transforming 10man or normal mode raiding in the new LFR "without queue", the next step will be claiming heroic modes since then normal won't prepare ppl for heroic (and they will claim they're being denied "content").

The lessons are all there to be learned, even the huge mistake in FL (with the nerf creating a stupid wall between 6/7h and 7/7h and artificially making ppl think that heroic was suposed to be easy): Easy stuff makes "harder" stuff not worth (LFR vs. normal/heroic, they increased the ilvl gap to try to fix it to a degree). Easy stuff can be boring and lead to public lost the same way or faster. If you give a hand, some will want your entire arm. AND the main thing, some ppl do get bothered that someone else has something that they don't have, no matter how hard it was to get. A player with a piece of higher ilvl gear will piss off a good number of players around him that don't have it. Even if it doesn't change a dime for their enjoyement of the game and it's there for them to also get it.

You just can't achiev such high numbers in player base with a normal game. Only "loot pinatas" achiev that. So either Blizzard choose wow to become a loot pinata cash cow like so many "social" games out there and see their product phasing out as fast as those or they keep it a game and try to keep most of players, alread knowing that they'll not achiev such a higher number, but can keep the game as a game and healthy for longer time.

[fangless]

I think that sums it up pretty much. We ask for way to much convienience. Kinda reminds me of the movie Wall-E when the people are flying aroung being spoonfed in chairs.

More convienience is not always health and I think WoW reached the point where convienience did more harm than good a long time ago. It is obvious blizzard is trying to reverse this, no flying in pandaria between 85-89. Challenge modes requiring to enter the instance manually (great), heroic scenarios requiring pre-made groups.

Very obvious blizzard has realised this and is trying to counteract this. Guess we just have to wait and see if there will be something as dramatic as removing LFR or LFD. Maybe making a better system to looking for groups, similar to the one in wrath where you could write what you wanted to run in LFG menu and find players there.

I can't remember if I agreed with anything else you've said in this thread, but this post sums up my thoughts on today's game 100%.

For years, every change made in this game was mostly due to the original mechanic/thing being slightly cumbersome. That's fine and all if it's done in moderation... but after a year or two of doing this, they paved every dirt road in the woods with a highway.

Players can't be asked to do anything remotely inconvenient anymore. There was actually someone complaining in a thread here that they don't have two people to do heroic scenarios with. It's mind bottling :P

You just can't achiev such high numbers in player base with a normal game. Only "loot pinatas" achiev that. So either Blizzard choose wow to become a loot pinata cash cow like so many "social" games out there and see their product phasing out as fast as those or they keep it a game and try to keep most of players, alread knowing that they'll not achiev such a higher number, but can keep the game as a game and healthy for longer time.

I am agreeing with people on these forums, this must be opposite day, lol.

They need to stop trying to save all the subscriptions at all costs, including game integrity. GC already mentioned that the long standing members are more likely to put up with imbalance, boring stuff, basically the crappy patches/expansions. Probably true, 8 years later, I am pretty easy going as far as game changes. But do you really need to slowly drive the ground into the game every time the casual player stops chasing the ball of yarn just to get them interested again?

[Akraen]

I want them to stop listening to everyone, including me. They need to just make the game to their design philosophy and let the disgruntled be disgruntled.

It's these wishy-washy changes every hotfix, patch, and expansion that's the most draining.

[Pua]

Heroic Raiders have always been an incredibly small portion of the playerbase. Even if every one of them was around today the number of players that might know a Heroic Raider is likely so small they're statistically insignificant.

That's my understanding of it, really. Heroic raiders (or those on the cutting edge before the advent of heroic raiding) have always been an extremely small percentage of the playing population. This means any judgements based on their influence are likely going to be almost as small.

But do you really need to slowly drive the ground into the game every time the casual player stops chasing the ball of yarn just to get them interested again?

I think the problem is that casual players used to stick around and plug gaps all over the place; there's a problem with them sticking nowadays, and the current design team simply don't know how to solve that particular issue. They've tried multiple things, to be fair to them, but this expansion has basically said to everyone that you grind and you raid, while putting up with the most caustic community we've ever had, or your character doesn't develop.

Cue another significant drop in players.

All I'm saying in this series is that raiding is dying on its feet because of content that's too punishing, has too steep a learning curve, and there's nothing meaningful before it. But we have no evidence, none whatsoever, that suggests people are leaving because of the raiding model. We just can't say that. Raiders have always formed such a small percentage of the population, that it's more likely those leaving couldn't care less about raids.

That said, the current design philosophy could arguably be causing the subscription drop indirectly. Because the developers are concentrating all their art, encounter design and tuning assets on raids, they're not providing players with other ways to play the game meaningfully.

At the end of the day, a stop needs to come to this madness. If not, and the next expansion launches with the same intentions at endgame, it'll be the last meaningful expansion this game ever has.

[araine]

I think most heroic raiders agree that activated hard modes was more fun than normal/heroic split. However GC stated several times that they do not want to go back to the ulduar style and that they prefer the normal/heroic version.

Also heroic modes serves an extremely legit purpose.

Mount Everest is the highest mountain in the world. Only very few people managed to climb it, it is indeed extremely challenging and an amazing feat.
It is extremely famous and well known in the world, even by people not into climbing.

If you would blast away the top 4000 meters of mount everest with a nuke, suddenly climbing to the peak of mount everest is not that strong of a feat anymore. Of course it would still be very challenging, but not remotely as challenging as before and another mountain would probably become the most popular as the "hardest mountain in the world" to climb.

Cutting off heroic raiding would probably cause a lot of heroic raiders to quit. That is a small portion of the population you might say. The thing is, heroic raiding attracts people to raiding that are not in heroic raiding. It becomes a goal, something to chase after.
When those hardcore players leave, they are very likely to find another game that suites their needs. The thing is, hardcore players probably get friends that are less progressed then them. So they tell their friends "Hey, come check out this game". Suddenly you have the effect of normal mode raiders leaving to follow those HC raiders to another game. Then they have friends that are raiding LFR, then LFR raiders start leaving the game, then they have friends that are not even raiding, and suddenly, people from all levels of raiding is leaving the game for another game, just because the top end was not catered.

Because that is the thing, the top end raiders got a lot of influence on the lower end of raiders. If the top players in the world says "this game sucks, try this one instead", then a lot of people would do it.

Same goes for streamer. Most popular wow PvE streamers are streaming heroic content. If they stopped streaming WoW and started another game, that is thousands and thousands of viewers that would probably follow them to that other game.

So while heroic content do not directly affect many people, indirectly it does.

Mt Everest have never been the hardest mountain to climb among climbers it is common knowledge that

The Eiger north wall at 3970 meter ( less than half the altitude of Everest)
Matterhorn 4478 meter about 1/2 of Everest

Than we can add in K2 Annapurna, Nanga Parbat just to name a few some with a lot less elevation to climb as being commonly regarded as more difficult

---------- Post added 2013-06-05 at 11:27 PM ----------

How do you know? More % of raiders were stuck on festergut than Elegon apparently.

And you forget those thousands upon thousands that closed up the shop and said forget this i might as well just hammer my head on the wall for 10hrs a week.

You constantly forget the effect of the massive roadblocks and the massive decline from people that have basically said screw this,

I already looked up the numbers for this tier alone some 7000 guilds in heroic mode and only 5500 guilds at the proper clearance path in normal for this tier. proper as in have cleared normal or is on track time wise to do it based on the average tier length from previous tiers.

The fact that normal mode is basically dying is something you are missing i think.

If we had a healthy relative ratio between heroic and normal guilds think along the lines of 1 to 5 at least so for 7000 guilds in heroic content you should have 35000 guilds in normal mode well when it clocks it at 5500 guilds only on path to clear it while it is current content you gotta admit we have a problem and lets say those 5500 guilds are made up of 20 players each on average ( it is less but whatever, i will count in your favor) that is right now some 11000 players world wide that is doing normal at proper speed for the tier some 14000 that is in heroic progression or cleared heroic 25000 players and if you think your average mom and pop guild fits into that 25000 player category you are delusional.

lets just say we have 10% of the player base even interested in any form of raiding that gives us 800k or so just cut it down to 500k for easy calculations ( in your favor i might add again) you have 5% of the 500k raiding interested people at the proper clearing path or better at this point. Of these 5% 56% of them are in heroic modes. or 2.8% of the 500k raiding interested people. we have 2.2% of raiding interested people that are on a proper clearing path right now in this tier.

Really if you cant see how those numbers are frightening i really am out of words it just makes me think of those in France that to the response of the people dont have bread well they can eat cake fits right in.

[Deleted]

And you forget those thousands upon thousands that closed up the shop and said forget this i might as well just hammer my head on the wall for 10hrs a week.

Checking the amount of players that killed saurfang compared to festergut, and spirit kings to elegon, there was a significantly larger % drop between saurfang and fester.

Again. Not missing the fact that numbers are going down. Just disagreeing on the reason why.


Also, never said everest was the hardest mountain to climb, just as heroic modes are not the hardest content in the world.
Though it is still very hard and the most well known mountain to people that do not climb.

[araine]

Checking the amount of players that killed saurfang compared to festergut, and spirit kings to elegon, there was a significantly larger % drop between saurfang and fester.

Again. Not missing the fact that numbers are going down. Just disagreeing on the reason why.


Also, never said everest was the hardest mountain to climb, just as heroic modes are not the hardest content in the world.
Though it is still very hard and the most well known mountain to people that do not climb.

Again you are falling into the trap where if you extrapolate the numbers down to 100 guilds kill the 1st boss and 99 guilds kill the last boss as we have trivial content. go further and by doing the same flawed math you can have a brand new single instance and lets say 1 guild in the world gets there and they finish it. by this flawed math we are having an instance that is either the easiest in the history of wow with 100% clearing ratio or the hardest one since 0% cleared it if they didnt finish it.

Of course it is easy to see how flawed math is flawed when you put it to the extreme but the same exact flaw is in your numbers and how you judge them right now it just isnt as obvious for the untrained eye as they say.

[Deleted]

-snip-

Your presumption that my math is flawed is based on the premise that the first boss in the instances are significantly harder than before and are actually stopping raids in a larger extent than before, which blue posts have confirmed they are not.

I do not say that the math is perfect, however the same logic you used to "debunk" my math, can be used to debunk the math claiming the opposite. It is a double edged sword.

Still, all math points towards that the average number of wipes and average number of guilds getting stuck on a boss in lower than before. That is undeniable.

If you have a better 'math', please feel free to share it. Provide something to the thread.

[araine]

Your presumption that my math is flawed is based on the premise that the first boss in the instances are significantly harder than before and are actually stopping raids in a larger extent than before, which blue posts have confirmed they are not.

I do not say that the math is perfect, however the same logic you used to "debunk" my math, can be used to debunk the math claiming the opposite. It is a double edged sword.

Still, all math points towards that the average number of wipes and average number of guilds getting stuck on a boss in lower than before. That is undeniable.

If you have a better 'math', please feel free to share it. Provide something to the thread.

And again you totally fail to take into the account all those thousands upon thousands of guild that have died away due to having smashing there heads into roadblocks over and over and over and over and over again. Of course your clearing percentage goes up when you have already killed of thousands upon thousands of mom and pop guilds already.

clearing percentage is an irrelevant statistic totally irrelevant and i think it is blatantly obvious why it is IRRELEVANT to the discussion at hand when we pull it to the extreme and kill of another 25k guilds or 50k guilds or whatever numbers you need to kill of to get down to only 100 left and do the math based on those 100.

I already pulled out numbers based on current status of clearing of this tier and we have 7000 guilds in heroic content and only 5500 that are 12/12 currently or time to progression ratio to become 12/12 before the tier is over.

This is highly disturbing if you ask me since it means that normal most is basically just the unlock feature for the heroic guilds and that the number that actually gets to finish normal mode is LESS than what plays in heroic mode. or in short it is content for mostly the same players.

A healthy level of completion vs folks 1/13H should be 1 to 5 ratio at least perhaps even moving up towards 1 to 10 ratio but lets work with 1 to 5 ratio as a start it would mean we would have 35k guilds give or take that would reach 12/12 before the tier is over. and today we got 27k guilds with a registered 1/12 or better 94 days i think we are coming up on in this tier. And today we have when we are over 3 months into this current tier 5500 guilds give or take that have downed 1/12 so far that are not on the radar for 2/12 kill And if you look you will see numerous guilds that downed jin'rokh normal mode on March 6th 2013 that never moved beyond this in progression.

we see numerous guilds that have failed or disbanded in this tier and quite frankly i am worried for the first time in 9 years about raiding in this game. And the impact this attrition will have on guilds looking towards the future, i am deeply worried and i am sure folks at Blizzard are as well since they can see the numbers even better than i can.

[Pua]

Also, most of the "complainers" were lying about "seeing the content" as LFR does exactly that, but still, ppl complained that they were not seeing "content" wich is clear that they're talking about loot. Wich is NOT content. Normal modes and Heroic modes are not new content. Except for a few things like Sinestra or Ra-den, normal/heroic is the same content.

I feel bad for missing this comment; my apologies.

Essentially, I think you're on to something. Normal mode completions rates are, for me, not really much to do with "seeing the content" because, as you rightly state, there's an easier way to do that for those who aren't interested. The problem we have is that guilds can't progress, and LFR isn't a substitute because that's just not what it was designed for. This is why I've mentioned the argument that LFR is needed if you want more raids to a couple of people; it just looks flat out bogus. During WotLK, when normal raids were easier, those who legitimately wanted to see raiding content could do so. LFR was born, specifically, because Cataclysm's raid content was too hard for everyone who wanted to raid, and those players dumped out needed somewhere to go.

Just take a look at what goes on in LFR. It's horrible. A relatively fair and simple idea has been butchered because Blizzard decided it wasn't just going to be an opportunity for players to get into raiding and see some content, they decided it was part of the progression chain and only frustration has ensued since. It's legitimate audience, those who've never really raided and want to see what it's all about have seen frustrated people who'd like to raid but can't slammed in there with them, while the tier, weapon and trinket drops further exasperate this by putting in those who are clearing normal modes and have no business in it.

It's an undeniable fact that people are running LFR who do not want to be running it. That means its design intention is a bust, and Blizzard are shoving too many people into the queue.

Mt Everest have never been the hardest mountain to climb among climbers it is common knowledge that

The Eiger north wall at 3970 meter ( less than half the altitude of Everest)
Matterhorn 4478 meter about 1/2 of Everest

Than we can add in K2 Annapurna, Nanga Parbat just to name a few some with a lot less elevation to climb as being commonly regarded as more difficult

Come on - that's got absolutely nothing to do with the point he was making.

[Deleted]

And again you totally fail to take into the account all those thousands upon thousands of guild that have died away due to having smashing there heads into roadblocks over and over and over and over and over again. Of course your clearing percentage goes up when you have already killed of thousands upon thousands of mom and pop guilds already.

clearing percentage is an irrelevant statistic totally irrelevant and i think it is blatantly obvious why it is IRRELEVANT to the discussion at hand when we pull it to the extreme and kill of another 25k guilds or 50k guilds or whatever numbers you need to kill of to get down to only 100 left and do the math based on those 100.

I already pulled out numbers based on current status of clearing of this tier and we have 7000 guilds in heroic content and only 5500 that are 12/12 currently or time to progression ratio to become 12/12 before the tier is over.

This is highly disturbing if you ask me since it means that normal most is basically just the unlock feature for the heroic guilds and that the number that actually gets to finish normal mode is LESS than what plays in heroic mode. or in short it is content for mostly the same players.

A healthy level of completion vs folks 1/13H should be 1 to 5 ratio at least perhaps even moving up towards 1 to 10 ratio but lets work with 1 to 5 ratio as a start it would mean we would have 35k guilds give or take that would reach 12/12 before the tier is over. and today we got 27k guilds with a registered 1/12 or better 94 days i think we are coming up on in this tier. And today we have when we are over 3 months into this current tier 5500 guilds give or take that have downed 1/12 so far that are not on the radar for 2/12 kill And if you look you will see numerous guilds that downed jin'rokh normal mode on March 6th 2013 that never moved beyond this in progression.

we see numerous guilds that have failed or disbanded in this tier and quite frankly i am worried for the first time in 9 years about raiding in this game. And the impact this attrition will have on guilds looking towards the future, i am deeply worried and i am sure folks at Blizzard are as well since they can see the numbers even better than i can.

There is 8900 guilds at 12/12, not 5500.

That is exactly why cleaning %, especially looking at a moving success rate (i.e. the average success rate between each boss) is competely relevant since it shows the successrate between each individual boss.

May I also ask you were you got this mighty fine number that you just pulled out of your ass that there should be a 1:5 / 1:10 ratio between 1/13 hc and 12/12 normal.

That would have the need to make the easiest heroic boss (due to non-linear progression), relatively 25-100% harder than Lei-Shen Heroic, 400-900% harder than horridon is for 1/12 guilds.

I mean, please, I would love to hear the logic between a 1:5 ratio, and why that is healthy.

[ashin]

It's stunning the way that OP completely ignores time as a variable. So much time spent making graphs, but it did not occur to you that there were more Deathwing kills because Deathwing was "current" content for many months longer than anything listed here? And again, not surprised that when T15 is new, less people have cleared it than have T14, which is old? Casual teams and pickup groups are still raiding T14 normals, for example.

[NeverStop]

Jin'rokh the Breaker 27248 (99.85%)
Horridon 21655 (79.35%)
Council of Elders 19545 (71.62%)
Tortos 17262 (63.25%)
Megaera 15640 (57.31%)
Ji-Kun 14728 (53.97%)
Durumu the Forgotten 12899 (47.27%)
Primordius 12557 (46.01%)
Dark Animus 11631 (42.62%)
Iron Qon 10747 (39.38%)
Twin Consorts 10576 (38.75%)
Lei Shen 8976 (32.89%)

With legendary meta gems and ilvl upgrades, we're approaching the point where 50% of guilds who kill N Jin'rokh kill N Lei Shen. We're at 32.89% right now, and there are still 2-3 months left in this tier.

[cabyio]

Very interesting read, I agree somewhat, but I've had this thought for a while and I've never really voiced it, so I just want to know what everyone else thinks about this:

In ICC days, on 10 man Heroic, my guild killed Blood Princes HC (first kill) after being put down to 9 man after about 45s (video on YouTube if anyone wants proof).
Now, if someone dies 45s into Horridon on 10m Normal, it is very VERY difficult to regain that kill. And you can make this comparison between now and WotLK with many many bosses, I think this is WRONG and should be changed but i'm dying to hear other peoples opinion about it on whether they agree or disagree, i'd appreciate any replies.

I think you are way off base on this. It is a TEN man raid. If you can beat it with 9 people (essentially dying 45s in is like not being there at all), then why even bring a 10th person...

[Pua]

It's stunning the way that OP completely ignores time as a variable. So much time spent making graphs, but it did not occur to you that there were more Deathwing kills because Deathwing was "current" content for many months longer than anything listed here? And again, not surprised that when T15 is new, less people have cleared it than have T14, which is old? Casual teams and pickup groups are still raiding T14 normals, for example.

I think you need to read the post again. Time, as a variable, is accounted for. The numbers provided by DisposableHero are based upon the two-month model that (though imperfect) shoots this argument out of the water.

---------- Post added 2013-06-06 at 11:48 PM ----------

Jin'rokh the Breaker 27248 (99.85%)
Horridon 21655 (79.35%)
Council of Elders 19545 (71.62%)
Tortos 17262 (63.25%)
Megaera 15640 (57.31%)
Ji-Kun 14728 (53.97%)
Durumu the Forgotten 12899 (47.27%)
Primordius 12557 (46.01%)
Dark Animus 11631 (42.62%)
Iron Qon 10747 (39.38%)
Twin Consorts 10576 (38.75%)
Lei Shen 8976 (32.89%)

With legendary meta gems and ilvl upgrades, we're approaching the point where 50% of guilds who kill N Jin'rokh kill N Lei Shen. We're at 32.89% right now, and there are still 2-3 months left in this tier.

You're assuming people are still to reach Jin'rokh - his kills aren't climbing particularly quickly, which implies (obviously I could be wrong) that people have sacked off normal raiding before ever pulling him.