NOTE:
-This is a re-post of the first two posts of a thread on the WoW official forums in the Raid and Guild Leadership forums (a low traffic sub-forum) located here:
http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/8796521581
-Additionally, this thread is simply about seeing the overall average, not to track the ups and downs, nor to discuss the why or how come.
-This thread is dealing currently with US guilds. If EU guilds are added, or other locations, please designate them as such with the appropriate abbreviation. I'll start an additional table(s) to track them as well.
-This thread tracks productive raid guilds only, those who down a boss, and are thereby tracked by wowprogress.
In a recent update to one of my sticky threads, approximately 45 guilds were removed from being listed on a server. This created an interest in ascertaining the mortality rate of guilds on said server, and then others.
During Wrath of the Lich King, the player and raiding populace of World of Warcraft was at its climax with over 12 million subscriptions. The most heavily raided instance at that time was Ice Crown Citadel, as not all guilds proceeded into Ruby Sanctum. Therefor the listing of guilds actively raiding in ICC during that era presents a reliable data source for our gross active raiding guilds at the time. Equally so, Throne of Thunder has been out for 2 months 10 days, and is therefor also a reliable data source for what constitutes 'active raiding' guilds with a slight margin for error.
The process is relatively simple. Here's how you do it.
- Goto WoWprogress
- View your server's cuttent standings for t15 content.
- Hit "next >" until you come to the end of your list. Note the last guild entry and the Rank.
- The rank of the last guild tells you the total number of guilds actively raiding this content on your server.
- Next, click the "wotlk" hyperlink for previous tier progression.
- Select "tier 10 (10)"
- Repeat the above process to record the total number of guilds raiding ICC on your server previously.
- Subtract the t15 number from the t10 total to derive the gross number of guilds lost since this time.
- Cataclysm was released in December 2010, that's approx 30 months ago, or 2.5 years.
- Divide your gross by 2.5, this will be your yearly guild mortality rate.
- Divide that by 12, you get your monthly.
- Divide the yearly by 52 you get your weekly.
This will show you how many guilds a week, a month, and a year in total gross the server is effectively loosing, or gaining as the case may be for some servers. Please note that his is NOT an accurate reflection of guilds lost, which would be higher, but instead this is a guild total for a server mortality rate. This is to see, what servers are dying, and how fast - essential information for those considering server transfers obviously.
Code:
Example:
Malygos -
t15 = 29
t10 = 131
131-29 = 102 / 2.5 = 40.80 yr
40.8 / 12 = 3.40 monthly
40.80 / 52 = 0.78 weekly.
US: Malygos is losing 41 guilds a year, 3 a month, and just under 1 every week on average.
---------- Post added 2013-05-30 at 07:00 PM ----------
Total Guilds Per Server Mortality Rate Averages and Gross Loss: (ICC -> ToT)
Code:
Yearly - Monthly - Weekly - Server --------- Gross Loss
77.20 -- 6.43 ---- 1.48 --- Warsong* ------- 195-002= 193
76.40 -- 6.37 ---- 1.47 --- Argent Dawn ---- 226-035= 191
67.20 -- 5.60 ---- 1.29 --- Feathermoon ---- 216-048= 168
60.00 -- 5.00 ---- 1.15 --- Medivh --------- 180-030= 150
60.00 -- 5.00 ---- 1.15 --- Proudmoore ----- 303-153= 150
58.40 -- 4.86 ---- 1.12 --- Draenor -------- 187-041= 146
57.60 -- 4.80 ---- 1.11 --- Alexstrasza ---- 185-041= 144
55.20 -- 4.60 ---- 1.06 --- Caelestrasz ---- 187-049= 138
54.40 -- 4.53 ---- 1.05 --- Lothar --------- 171-035= 136
52.40 -- 4.37 ---- 1.01 --- Blackhand ------ 187-056= 131
51.60 -- 4.30 ---- 0.99 --- Kirin Tor ------ 162-033= 129
50.40 -- 4.20 ---- 0.97 --- Korgath -------- 239-113= 126
50.00 -- 4.17 ---- 0.96 --- Muradin -------- 147-022= 125
49.60 -- 4.13 ---- 0.95 --- Aggramar ------- 163-039= 124
49.20 -- 4.10 ---- 0.95 --- Cenarion Cir --- 173-050= 123
48.00 -- 4.00 ---- 0.92 --- Surumar -------- 171-051= 120
47.60 -- 3.96 ---- 0.92 --- Drenden -------- 150-031= 119
44.40 -- 3.70 ---- 0.85 --- Zangarmarsh ---- 141-030= 111
43.20 -- 3.60 ---- 0.83 --- Grizzly Hills -- 132-024= 108
42.40 -- 3.53 ---- 0.82 --- Garrosh -------- 140-034= 106
40.80 -- 3.40 ---- 0.78 --- Malygos -------- 131-029= 102
37.20 -- 3.10 ---- 0.72 --- Steamwheedle Ca- 120-027= 093
36.80 -- 3.07 ---- 0.71 --- Tanaris -------- 124-032= 092
34.80 -- 2.90 ---- 0.67 --- Hyjal ---------- 224-137= 087
26.80 -- 2.23 ---- 0.52 --- Illidan** ------ 292-225= 067
14.80 -- 1.23 ---- 0.28 --- Sargeras ------- 245-208= 037
Growing Servers:
32.80 -- 2.73 ---- 0.63 --- Stormrage ------ 268-350= +82
.
.
* Warsong has a population of approx 554 players atm. It has 2 active raiding guilds currently (both Horde), down from 195 during ICC. It is ranked 245th out of 246 total US guilds in progression. This appears to be the least populated US server. Faction Ratio H:A is 1/0.06.
** Illidan has a population of approx 26,345 players atm. It has 225 active raiding guilds currently (all Horde), down from 292 during ICC. It is ranked 2nd out of 246 total US guilds in progression. This appears to be the most populated US server. Faction Ratio H:A is 1/0.00.
The above list will continue to be updated as individuals post.
ADDITIONAL NOTES:
- All math and data will be checked before being added to the chart. Ensure yours is correct.
- Many concerns about how the value of this data and using ICC 10man were addressed in the original thread and answered. If you have concerns about this formula, please read the original thread to see if your concerns have already been addressed (linked at the top of this post).