Mafia 27: Rainbow Revenge

[Decagon]

Only obvious logic:
Blood fox is Mafia, he claims Doctor on purpose so that the other TPRs (including the actual Doctor, if that person assumed there were 2) do not protect Elypop tonight.

Mafia kills Elypop tonight, Town lynches Blood fox tomorrow, and the Mafia have successfully traded 1 Goon for the strongest TPR in this game.

There are other logical explanations as well, but I won't point them out because it could ruin it, assuming Fox is town.

I don't think the mafia would claim doc because they can risk having a member outed to wait another night to kill Ely, even if Ely does out a scum, it's still a 1 for 1 trade, worst case scenario for them. If Fox was mafia, claiming doc, and this is a ploy, it's still 1 for 1, best case scenario. They get no benefit out of it, so unless Fox made a mistake as mafia, I would guess he's town. A 1v1 trade with Ely and a mafia is not worth it as we know that there is a backup investigator somewhere.

Either way, if Ely turns up dead tonight, we can lynch Fox. A 1v1 trade for us is likely very good.

---------- Post added 2013-06-13 at 01:44 AM ----------

Anyways, it's getting close to 2am here, and my family is loud enough in the morning that they'll wake me up, so I need to sleep.

[Simca]

There are other logical explanations as well, but I won't point them out because it could ruin it, assuming Fox is town.

I don't think the mafia would claim doc because they can risk having a member outed to wait another night to kill Ely, even if Ely does out a scum, it's still a 1 for 1 trade, worst case scenario for them. If Fox was mafia, claiming doc, and this is a ploy, it's still 1 for 1, best case scenario. They get no benefit out of it, so unless Fox made a mistake as mafia, I would guess he's town. A 1v1 trade with Ely and a mafia is not worth it as we know that there is a backup investigator somewhere.

Either way, if Ely turns up dead tonight, we can lynch Fox. A 1v1 trade for us is likely very good.

We -assume- there is a backup investigator. It's a relatively safe assumption that since there is one backup that there are multiple backups, but it isn't always the case. If the Mafia trades 1:1 for the Investigator and there is no backup, then it is a big victory for them, imo. That role is really powerful, probably the most powerful in this current game.

Also, I doubt the other explanations would ruin it because they're all WIFOM-based. If they think he's bullshitting as a VT to buy Elypop a day, then they could be wrong and waste an NK, etc, etc.

It'll be interesting to see if they try it or not.

Also, to Elypop: On that note, probably don't waste your Investigate on Blood fox. If you die, he's dead, and if you don't die, he's at least not under suspicion, which is good enough for moment. Pick somebody else.

[Anakso]

I can't see what reason he'd have done it as a town, he's just guaranteed his protection won't block a kill, but if the doc really did not protect elyaan yesterday that would have been a really good plan to trap their NKtonight and actually stop a NK, but claiming ruined it.

Wait just thought of a reason, prob what Majad thought of too.

---------- Post added 2013-06-13 at 04:00 PM ----------

We -assume- there is a backup investigator. It's a relatively safe assumption that since there is one backup that there are multiple backups, but it isn't always the case. If the Mafia trades 1:1 for the Investigator and there is no backup, then it is a big victory for them, imo. That role is really powerful, probably the most powerful in this current game.

Backup investigator is the confirmed in place roll (by elyaan) we're assuming there is a back up doc.

---------- Post added 2013-06-13 at 04:02 PM ----------

I meant what Deca thought of, his Ava confused me.

[Simca]

Backup investigator is the confirmed in place roll (by elyaan) we're assuming there is a back up doc.

Oh, derp. Then ignore that part. I thought the confirmed role was the backup Doctor.

I must have misread it.

[Blood Fox]

I don't think the mafia would claim doc because they can risk having a member outed to wait another night to kill Ely, even if Ely does out a scum, it's still a 1 for 1 trade, worst case scenario for them. If Fox was mafia, claiming doc, and this is a ploy, it's still 1 for 1, best case scenario. They get no benefit out of it, so unless Fox made a mistake as mafia, I would guess he's town. A 1v1 trade with Ely and a mafia is not worth it as we know that there is a backup investigator somewhere.

Either way, if Ely turns up dead tonight, we can lynch Fox. A 1v1 trade for us is likely very good.[COLOR="red"]

well fires toff ely wont turn up dead, i can guarantee you this. unless they have some sort of strongman kill that shit aint going to happen.

mafia claiming doc tend to only happen when there is the real doc claiming so a mafia player claims at the same time to confuse town. other than that i don't see any real benefit of mafia claiming doc. in fact if mafia claimed doc the real doc would still be doctoring their own target. all would happen is that the town will know at lest one of them is scum and for scum a 1v1 trade off is never worth it unless its a cop.

[Simca]

well fires toff ely wont turn up dead, i can guarantee you this. unless they have some sort of strongman kill that shit aint going to happen.

Or Mafia has backups for their PRs too, and the Backup Mafia Roleblocker blocks you while they kill Elypop.

I just don't see the advantage to claiming here.

[Danner]

I cannot really believe a mafia would out himself like that. Unless there is a huge amount of scum in the mafia team right now, and they are getting really desperate to take out Elypop.
I cannot believe a doc would out himself like that either. No point in painting a target on your back for nothing. Trading a doc for a one night investigation (by pushing a jailer off) does not seem like a good trade either.

So I have been thinking in different lines, and I could not get it to fit. But if Decagon says it may fit, then I will believe that. We shall see what happens!

[Simca]

I cannot really believe a mafia would out himself like that. Unless there is a huge amount of scum in the mafia team right now, and they are getting really desperate to take out Elypop.

They have 10 people in this game, if we go by the 1/3 rule.

30 initial players = 10 Mafia or 9 Mafia and 1-2 Traitors or 8 Mafia and 2-4 Traitors or something like that

So I have been thinking in different lines, and I could not get it to fit. But if Decagon says it may fit, then I will believe that. We shall see what happens!

The only thing that makes sense is a VT bluff.

Then again, things that don't make sense happen.

[Anakso]

I'm thinking it's more likely he's a townie claiming than a mafia claiming at this point, in which case I'll say this. If the doc is still out there and not blood and you think the same as me, protect blood.

If blood is the doc, he'll protect Elyaan. Either way, mafia have to gamble tonight to get a kill on a TPR.

[Deleted]

I personally think there are 3 reasons why Blood Fox would claim doctor here.

1. He actually is the doctor, WIFOM'd the scum last night by protecting someone other then ely and is now RC'ing to prevent the jack from wasting a night of protecting Ely
2. He is actually mafia and there won't be any protection on Ely tonight and Ely will die, where they sacrifice one simple mafia player for arguably the most powerfull TPR role in the game, this seems like a very good trade for them especially if there are indeed ~6+ mafia players. Also considering Anakso's suggestion to have the cop protect him last night and the jack protect him this night and greeney bringing that back that idea very obviously, it would mean that he is protected till eternity.
3. He is actually a townie and is afraid there is no jack in the game and the doctor gave protection yesterday, and is thus trying to bait a kill on himself instead of ely
4. He is actually mafia and they don't want to kill ely just yet because ely said he found a backup investigator, so the mafia will just not perform their NK tonight and blood fox is basically guaranteed to never be lynched for the rest of the game.

I personally think options 2-4 are the most likely, considering it would be a waste to trade a doctor for a single night of investigation (which is what happens if the jack chooses to investigate rather then protect tonight), thus this reasoning seems flawed. Also anakso had suggested that the doc protect him last night and the jack tonight, and it would have been really bad play from the doctor to not follow that idea, and blood fox just doesn't strike me as a bad player.

There is still a chance he is a townie and is actually trying to do the right thing and sacrifice himself in return for the jack getting another night of investigating (not sure if wort, but defo closer then trading a doc for it), it will just be a townie we will lynch and the jack can still protect tonight.

Another thing to note is that most likely the Jack can't even investigate tonight, because is seems logical to investigate in n1 and 3, and you can only investigate every other night.

Having said that, I will
UNVOTE
VOTE BLOOD FOX

[falbacca]

Well - it's happening again - I was all set to vote on one of the two low posters (again because of not really providing any input) until Blood Fox made his claim as doc. I don't understand why he felt the need to reveal it when he was nowhere near having some sort of bandwagon building against him. Treann is still at the top of the list with six votes. I'm going to take a few minutes to think this over.

[Danner]

*lightbulb*

Assumptions:
- Blood Fox is a good player
- The doc cannot protect the same person two days in a row.

With this, I can craft option #5, but it would be bad to reveal that theory if it is true.
Given that theory, Blood Fox's play makes perfect sense.

So... without talking about what that theory is:

Assume Blood Fox is a lying mafia scum.
- That won't change the assumption that the doc cannot save Elypop twice in a row.
- Mafia can just hit Elypop. They did not need to out anyone to do that.

Assume Blood Fox is doing what I think he is doing:
- Protecting Blood Fox will work
- The only risk is mafia watchers. But they already got all they needed last night if they exist.

Concluding:
- If you are a doc, and can protect Elypop, do so.
- If you can not, protect Blood Fox.
- Assuming that Blood Fox is not a lying mafia scum, Elypop will not die.
- Assuming Blood Fox is a lying mafia scum, Elypop will die, but he would have done so anyway.

If Blood fox is a lying mafia scum, Elypop may still die, so it's just wasted a protect that would have otherwise NOT have gone to Elypop anyway. The risk seems low to me. Feel free to argue if you disagree.

--

Leaving me to finally pushing hypermode onto the bad reasoning category.

- Option 1 makes no sense.
-- If he's a doctor, and he could protect Elypop every day, he would simply keep on protecting every day. Certainly not roleclaim.
-- If he cannot protect the same guy every day, he would still not be able to protect Elypop tonight, and he would have outed himself for very little.
-- Trading a doc for a night of investigation is bad play. Blood Fox is assumed not a bad player.
- Option 2 makes no sense.
-- If he is mafia, he could just hit Elypop tonight and kill him, given the assumption of two protections in a row will fail.
-- No need for the mafia to sacrifice anyone to do that!
- Option 3 makes no sense.
-- It's a bad gamble; there is no reason for the mafia to not attack Elypop, and he makes himself a liar, which is bad for town as we want to lynch him for lying if we find Elypop dead.
-- Since I assume Blood Fox is a good player, this makes no sense.
- Option 4...
-- Sure, the mafia gets cred on one of their members. But so what? Two nights into the future, you have to make the same play again, or Blood Fox is suddenly suspicious. Meaning the mafia needs to keep Elypop alive to retain that credibility. Show me the mafia that feels that is a good idea. Anywhere.

In fact... this chain of reasoning was so shoddy that I will end up with doing this.

UNVOTE
VOTE: Hypermode

Feel free to dispute this. I am always open to counterarguments.

[Deleted]

Assumptions:
- Blood Fox is a good player
- The doc cannot protect the same person two days in a row.

I agree with both the assumptions made here.

Assume Blood Fox is a lying mafia scum.
- That won't change the assumption that the doc cannot save Elypop twice in a row.
- Mafia can just hit Elypop. They did not need to out anyone to do that.

Disagree with the second assumption
The thing is, there is very likely a Jack in Town (if you don't know, http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?..._of_all_trades)
Usually, the MMO-Champion Jack can choose 1 role every night but can't be the same role on 2 consecutive nights.
Since we are on D3 atm, assuming he used his ''investigation'' (cop) role during the first night (which is a logical assumption, considering protecting someone on n1 is just rolling a dice randomly, whereas investigations actually help) and he then proceded to use his investigation every time it was up (meaning on n3) he is now able to protect or roleblock someone tonight. This is essential to the strategy anakso posted, because then in the next night, assuming the doc did as he was told earlier, the doc can protect him again and you basically have an endless circle of protections, and with only 1 NK and assuming no strongman mafia/sk, it means Ely can just happily keep investigating away. However, if the Jack thinks that Ely is safely protected tonight, he might choose to be another role tonight, meaning that, if blood fox lies and the jack believes him, elypop is wide open to be slaughtered.

- Option 1 makes no sense.
-- If he's a doctor, and he could protect Elypop every day, he would simply keep on protecting every day. Certainly not roleclaim.
-- If he cannot protect the same guy every day, he would still not be able to protect Elypop tonight, and he would have outed himself for very little.
-- Trading a doc for a night of investigation is bad play. Blood Fox is assumed not a bad player.

I agree, this is why I dismissed my own theory 1 as seemingly improbable.

- Option 2 makes no sense.
-- If he is mafia, he could just hit Elypop tonight and kill him, given the assumption of two protections in a row will fail.
-- No need for the mafia to sacrifice anyone to do that!

Disagree, see my previous reasoning about the Jack which you conveniently forgot about.

- Option 3 makes no sense.
-- It's a bad gamble; there is no reason for the mafia to not attack Elypop, and he makes himself a liar, which is bad for town as we want to lynch him for lying if we find Elypop dead.
-- Since I assume Blood Fox is a good player, this makes no sense.

Again see my previous reasoning and actually read what I posted, he might believe that there is no Jack to protect ely tonight and is thus baiting the mafia into attacking him rather then killing ely, not sure why as a VT sacrificing yourself so your investigator doesn't die means bad play?

- Option 4...
-- Sure, the mafia gets cred on one of their members. But so what? Two nights into the future, you have to make the same play again, or Blood Fox is suddenly suspicious. Meaning the mafia needs to keep Elypop alive to retain that credibility. Show me the mafia that feels that is a good idea. Anywhere.

Nop, they could, assuming that the doc can't protect a person two nights in a row, kill him on one of the nights that he wouldn't be protected by Blood Fox in theory, for example tomorrow.
And like I said before, because Ely said he found a replacement investigator, it might be better for them to try and take him out first before taking out ely, I would guess it is better for the mafia to know who their investigator is over not knowing.

In fact... this chain of reasoning was so shoddy that I will end up with doing this.

I am still not sure why my reasoning is shoddy besides you (I hope not purposefully) overlooking a significant part of my argument.
Also I am really wondering what is so brilliant about Blood Foxes plan that I am failing so desperately to see.

[falbacca]

Ok I've come to a decision ... I went to look back at Hypermode's posts ... he was the one that said he'd rather not know who one of the TPRs was (which now we know of one, for sure) ... he had pushed for the last three votes on Xanjori (everyone knew at this point Xanjori was mafia) ... he's also trying to start a bandwagon on Blood Fox, who has claimed cop. I agree with Decagon's reasoning: if ElyPop dies during the night, then Blood Fox will be one of two people up for lynching (assuming Treann survives somehow).

So:
Vote: Hypermode

[Simca]

Hypermode's logic for the vote is pretty silly, I agree.

Why lynch today what you could lynch tomorrow?

There is virtually no gain in any scenario to kill him now instead of waiting until tomorrow.

Ok I've come to a decision ... I went to look back at Hypermode's posts ... he was the one that said he'd rather not know who one of the TPRs was (which now we know of one, for sure) ... he had pushed for the last three votes on a lynch (forgot to look at which one it was) ... he's also trying to start a bandwagon on Blood Fox, who has claimed cop. I agree with Decagon's reasoning: if ElyPop dies during the night, then Blood Fox will be one of two people up for lynching (assuming Treann survives somehow).

So:
Vote: Hypermode

A minor correction but Blood Fox has claimed Doctor, not Cop.

[Anakso]

Okay, got to do this now.

unvote
vote:Hypermode

I mean really, voting our claimed doc, possible only protection for our claimed cop, not really a smart thing. If he is scum and Elyaan dies tonight we'll have reason to believe he's scum, but voting him now almost guarantees there is no protection for Elyaan tonight. There could be a second protection and possibly they'll protect Elyaan anyway if they don't trust bloods claim but voting blood off right now is a bad move, unless you don't want the cop to have protection.

[falbacca]

A minor correction but Blood Fox has claimed Doctor, not Cop.

Oops - sorry!!! Only have had five hours of sleep.

[Deleted]

he was the one that said he'd rather not know who one of the TPRs was

Actually not wanting to reveal our TPR roles to the mafia is appearently a sign of being mafia, news @ 11, also fyi I wasn't the only one suggesting he didn't say who he investigated, not sure what this proves.

he had pushed for the last three votes on Xanjori (everyone knew at this point Xanjori was mafia)

So appearently wanting to get a lynch on a confirmed mafia player is a sign of being mafia aswell?
I honestly don't get why it is a bad thing to end a day which will be a 100% certain lynch on a known scum player early (as some people seem to think).
There is no way any of his mafia friends are going to do anything but vote for him, so the records are fairly useless.
Also the argument that it's not ''fun'' for people to have short days because they can't play alot really falls short of making sense in determining if someone is suspicious or not. It seems like at least anakso and greeney agree with me on this.

he's also trying to start a bandwagon on Blood Fox, who has claimed doctor. I agree with Decagon's reasoning: if ElyPop dies during the night, then Blood Fox will be one of two people up for lynching (assuming Treann survives somehow).

As I have stated before (and will continue to do) I really rather not lynch lurkers simply on the grounds of them lurking, no matter what people seem to think.
I personally think that Blood Fox obviously fake RC is enough for me to get a vote on him.

---------- Post added 2013-06-13 at 12:55 PM ----------

Why lynch today what you could lynch tomorrow?

There is virtually no gain in any scenario to kill him now instead of waiting until tomorrow.

Brilliant plan, let's ignore the mafia players and all go and lynch townies, since we can still lynch them tomorrow, not sure what to say to this..

Also I really fail to see where my reasoning falls short, so feel free to point that out to me.

Anyways since alot of people seem to have a problem with me voting on what I think is a confirmed mafia, I will see how events progress and if ely dies or not

UNVOTE

[Danner]

Hypermode:

I understand that many games here consist of both a jack and a doc. These could in theory tag-team and protect he cop every other night. Obviously the doc goes first. We do not know if there is a jack. There may or may not be. There may not even be a doc, but it feels like a longshot in assumptions. Let's assume there is a jack and a doc. Per your logic, he would investigate first. That was last night. We started on a night, remember?

- Night before Day 1: Jack investigates.
- Night before Day 2: Jack protects.
- Night before Day 3: Jack investigates.
- Day 3: Elypop Roleclaimed. Finds Xanjori the scum, who is promptly lynched.
- Night before day 4 (today): Jack protects. Docs everywhere jumps to Elypop's defence.
- Today: We argue things, right here.
- This night: Jack cannot protect. We have a problem, don't we?

Obviously, if the the jack or any doc can protect Elypop, then that should be done.
In the case that is not possible... Elypop is spooned. (That's an adventurers comic reference, by the way).

There is no gain for the scum to speak up here. Noone in their right mind would move protection off Elypop onto Blood Fox unless they have to. I hope that is not what we are discussing here, or we're just too misaligned.

--

I don't see Blood Fox's post as a "I'm a doc. Protect me and trust me to not be scum, instead of protecting our cop" bid. I will agree it can be read like that, but it does not make sense. Noone in their right mind would gamble a safe protect on a player that is not certified, risking a claimed cop for a person that can be a scum. If we can protect Elypop, we should.

Blood Fox is not a bad player (an assumption we both agree on). I don't think he claimed doc. I think he is doing something far more clever.

And your logic is still not satisfactory to me.

[Loaf]

24 alive, 13 to lynch
Deadline for Day 4 is 1100 GMT Friday, June 14.

Anakso - Hypermode(1070)
Blood Fox
celtic209 - Treann(958)
Danner - Hypermode(1066)
Decagon - Hypermode(1027)
Dyra - Treann(944)
ElyPop -
Everything Nice - Virothe(955)
falbacca - Hypermode(1068)
foxximcleod - Treann(935)
Greeney - Hypermode(1038)
Hypermode - unvoted(1072)
Kasierith
Krayzy - Anakso(959)
listo95 -
MartMoves
Majad - Anakso(941)
Nightfury Treann - unvoted(1045)
Omertocracy - Treann(1036)
Silkku -
Simca
Robozerim - Treann(989)
Tziva -
Uggorthaholy - Martmoves(1037)
Virothe

Treann - 5
Hypermode - 5
Anakso - 2
Virothe - 1
Martmoves - 1

CalasEU - lynched day 1
Rollo - killed night 2
Kel - lynched day 2
Firebert - killed night 3
Xanjori - lynched day 3
Silkku - killed night 4