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  1. #41
    The Lightbringer Karizee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fencers View Post
    3 million boxes sold is not 3 million players.

    I understand that Fencers. What I'm saying is since we know the variable in the equation:

    Since WoW is 16,259 = 8,000,000 players
    and
    GW2 is 6,291 = X
    then
    GW2 = 3,095,393 players

    That 3 million in sales number was released in January. They've sold copies of the game since then, evidenced by the raising of server caps every 2 to 3 weeks since January and the servers fill right back up every time they do (not to mention the hordes of new players running around and asking questions in guilds and mapchat).

    I've been hitting overflows all weekend and there is still a queue for Eternal Battlegrounds, even this late at night ;_;
    If you want justice, you've come to the wrong place.
    ~Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones

  2. #42
    Brewmaster Darksoldierr's Avatar
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    For the god of love, dont base assumptions on XFire numbers.
    Time is on our side
    Brutal Gladiator Enhancement Shaman *rawr*

  3. #43
    I agree. Xfire is a crappy gamer platform and people know it. Who uses that crap still?

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    No, but it is 3 millions into the calculations ANet is basing their development on. Unlike other companies, the game doesn't go down the drain because sub money is missing out, because they never expected any. They can plan accordingly. That gives stability to the development I'd say...snip...
    I am pretty sure they have an estimated average monthly income, and their development is based on that. You can't instantly hire and fire people and change a large organization over night. You have to have an estimate/forecast to work off of and I am quite sure they expect income they aren't providing the servers out of the kindness of their hearts. Actually I would be really scared about stability if they didn't have an estimate/forecast to work off of.

  5. #45
    Why do people dismiss Xfire numbers? If the platform isn't bias (Xfire isn't affiliated with any certain game, so it isn't bias) then what does it matter? Couldn't you still pull relevant numbers from the given data? Unless someone can prove, statistically, that the data from Xfire is skewed in some way?

    Although I do wonder why SWTOR, Rift, Diablo 3, SC2, etc. aren't on the Xfire chart? Are they not supported in some way?
    Last edited by Maconi; 2013-06-24 at 05:41 AM.

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by Maconi View Post
    Why do people dismiss Xfire numbers? If the platform isn't bias (Xfire isn't affiliated with any certain game, so it isn't bias) then what does it matter? Couldn't you still pull relevant numbers from the given data? Unless someone can prove, statistically, that the data from Xfire is skewed in some way?

    Although I do wonder why SWTOR and Rift and etc. aren't on the Xfire chart? Are they not supported in some way?
    I doubt you could without a bit of hard research. If you could figure out what kind of people use xfire, then you could probably also figure out what kinds of game they are more likely to play. I used to use xfire when playing WoW with small groups of friends because ingame voice was crap and Vent was a pain the ass. For example you might find games that have excellent voice chat are underrepresented by XFire. That is just an example, but I do think that users that use xfire probably only represent one segment of the whole population and chances are good that it may not accurately represent the entire population.

  7. #47
    I also noticed that the old Xfire Stats page is broken (they say so on another part of their website). Odd they just don't take it down/have it removed from Google's hits.

    There's a top 10 on the front page that seems more accurate for live data, but it's still up for statistical analysis.

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by Maconi View Post
    Unless someone can prove, statistically, that the data from Xfire is skewed in some way?
    This isn't how statistics work. You have to prove that they aren't skewed, requesting the other is silly and shows a lack of understanding of the scientific method.

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by Meledelion View Post
    This isn't how statistics work. You have to prove that they aren't skewed, requesting the other is silly and shows a lack of understanding of the scientific method.
    indeed and the xfire and raptr really look to introduce sampling bias. I guarantee raptr way over represents rift because of all the freebies they give to rift players. I know alot of people who just download raptr for that specific purpose.

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by Karizee View Post
    I understand that Fencers. What I'm saying is since we know the variable in the equation:

    Since WoW is 16,259 = 8,000,000 players
    and
    GW2 is 6,291 = X
    then
    GW2 = 3,095,393 players

    That 3 million in sales number was released in January. They've sold copies of the game since then, evidenced by the raising of server caps every 2 to 3 weeks since January and the servers fill right back up every time they do (not to mention the hordes of new players running around and asking questions in guilds and mapchat).

    I've been hitting overflows all weekend and there is still a queue for Eternal Battlegrounds, even this late at night ;_;
    Lol.

    Xfire does not track China figures, so the number of WoW is around 3.5 million western subscriptions.

    That would mean around 1.3 million GW2 players. And the ratio is dwindling FAST in favor of WoW lately.

    Again: IF Xfire is a 1/1 representation, which it is not.

    Btw you can't compare a subscription based game where players PAY 180 dollars a year just to keep playing it with a subscription FREE game to play.

    It is like comparing the best selling book with some free pamflets of your local library.

    And please stop insulting our intelligence with fabricated lies like "they raise server caps". That's such an old lie as old as dying MMO's exist, it is no longer funny.

    GW2 will keep losing players until their next expansion. And each expansion sells around 40% of the initial one. That's simple facts.

    Those figures are quite good ... On par with GW1 back then ... But nothing to brag about for a free non subscription game.
    Last edited by BenBos; 2013-06-24 at 06:28 AM.

  11. #51
    The Lightbringer Karizee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jbombard View Post
    I doubt you could without a bit of hard research. If you could figure out what kind of people use xfire, then you could probably also figure out what kinds of game they are more likely to play. I used to use xfire when playing WoW with small groups of friends because ingame voice was crap and Vent was a pain the ass. For example you might find games that have excellent voice chat are underrepresented by XFire. That is just an example, but I do think that users that use xfire probably only represent one segment of the whole population and chances are good that it may not accurately represent the entire population.
    Oh, is that why people use xFire? For the voice chat? I never knew why. I certainly never used it nor do I know anyone who does.

    That would explain why games released later are not represented there, everyone uses Mumble or Teamspeak now. A few still use Vent, but Teamspeak is free and you can have hundreds of players on it.



    Btw, I know the xFire numbers don't mean squat, I was just tongue in cheek responding to the person that put them up as evidence the game has lost players lol.
    If you want justice, you've come to the wrong place.
    ~Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones

  12. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by Karizee View Post
    Oh, is that why people use xFire? For the voice chat? I never knew why. I certainly never used it nor do I know anyone who does.

    That would explain why games released later are not represented there, everyone uses Mumble or Teamspeak now. A few still use Vent, but Teamspeak is free and you can have hundreds of players on it.



    Btw, I know the xFire numbers don't mean squat, I was just tongue in cheek responding to the person that put them up as evidence the game has lost players lol.
    Tongue in cheek ? By talking the usual "raising caps" stuff ... LOL

    Comparing figures from an mmorpg where you need to keep paying yearly 180 dollars just to keep playing with a free to play game after initial purchase .... And. STILL loose a ratio every month ...?

    That tells everything really.

    It means the MMORPG business is no longer growing. Other games are replacing them. And the fact F2P is pretty much the standard these days is NOT a good thing either.

    It prohibits huge investments needed for full fledged open world mmorpgs.
    Last edited by BenBos; 2013-06-24 at 06:56 AM.

  13. #53
    The Lightbringer Karizee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    Tongue in cheek ? By talking the usual "raising caps" stuff ... LOL

    Comparing figures from an mmorpg where you need to keep paying yearly 180 dollars just to keep playing with a free to play game after initial purchase .... And. STILL loose a ratio every month ...?

    That tells everything really.

    It means the MMORPG business is no longer growing. Other games are replacing them. And the fact F2P is pretty much the standard these days is NOT a good thing either.

    It prohibits huge investments needed for full fledged open world mmorpgs.
    Tongue in cheek on the xFire extrapolation.
    Serious as a heart attack on the raising server caps. They've def sold more than 3 million.

    FTP or BTP doesn't mean the end of the genre BenBos. They are perfectly viable and sustainable business models.
    If you want justice, you've come to the wrong place.
    ~Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by Darksoldierr View Post
    For the god of love, dont base assumptions on XFire numbers.
    As long as Xfire has a wide enough demographic break, then it would be an accurate tool of % of games played.

    Is there any evidence Xfire's demo breaks are skewed, invalid or falsified? I know of no such source.

    Quote Originally Posted by Karizee View Post
    I understand that Fencers. What I'm saying is since we know the variable in the equation:
    And what I am saying is don't mistake copies sold as active players.

    That applies to WoW too. 8 million sub doesn't necessarily mean 8 million people playing.

  15. #55
    oh look, its BenBos with one of his "factual" posts again. joy. shall we break in down into its component lies?

    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    Xfire does not track China figures, so the number of WoW is around 3.5 million western subscriptions.
    thats amazing, you have the number of western subscriptions, even though that figure hasnt been published by Blizzard for a number of years. are you going to admit thats just a guess, rather than a fact to base subsequent analysis on?

    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    That would mean around 1.3 million GW2 players. And the ratio is dwindling FAST in favor of WoW lately.
    based on what exactly? we know WoW subs are dropping fast, we have published figures for that. what do you base the fact GW2 is going down quicker on? apart from your own delusions and prejuduce, of course.

    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    Btw you can't compare a subscription based game where players PAY 180 dollars a year just to keep playing it with a subscription FREE game to play.
    GW2 isnt F2P, its B2P with micro transactions. as opposed to the WoW model of B2P with subscription and micro transactions and service costs.

    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    And please stop insulting our intelligence with fabricated lies like "they raise server caps". That's such an old lie as old as dying MMO's exist, it is no longer funny.
    there are lies being spouted in this thread, but you may have missed where they are coming from.

    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    GW2 will keep losing players until their next expansion. And each expansion sells around 40% of the initial one. That's simple facts.
    you may want to look up the word "fact". what you have written there seems to be a combination of conjecture and bile. not a pretty combination.

    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    Those figures are quite good ... On par with GW1 back then ... But nothing to brag about for a free non subscription game.
    B2P. not free. maybe being with WoW for so long has confused you about how a fair and reasonable charging system should work?
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.

    The volume of new game features and content in MoP is a direct consequence of people cancelling subscriptions during Cataclysm. You're welcome.

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by Fencers View Post
    As long as Xfire has a wide enough demographic break, then it would be an accurate tool of % of games played.

    Is there any evidence Xfire's demo breaks are skewed, invalid or falsified? I know of no such source.
    This is true. One needs a relatively small sample to get an accurate estimation. The only problem I see in this case is that the sample will be skewed because it's only looking at a specific subset of the client base, in this case, those who use VOIP. In fact, it's likely that this figure would be skewed more towards something like WOW which needs VOIP for raids. Anecdotal Evidence: I often used VOIP for WOW raiding but haven't needed to use it for GW2 yet.

    ---------- Post added 2013-06-24 at 02:00 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    It means the MMORPG business is no longer growing. Other games are replacing them. And the fact F2P is pretty much the standard these days is NOT a good thing either.

    It prohibits huge investments needed for full fledged open world mmorpgs.
    I agree it's shrinking but I disagree with the second part. The investment doesn't need to be that big depending on how the game is developed. It should even be possible to license an engine that can do 90% of what the game developers need.

    I think you need to look at why F2P is taking off before saying it's not a good thing. Blizzard set a precedent with WOW. The $10 monthly cost. It may have had a relation to the support costs right in the beginning but that wouldn't have lasted long. At one point, they were making a billion dollars per year from subscriptions which far exceeded their costs. With all of their discounts they have offered, they have never discounted the subs, probably because these were their biggest earner. IMHO, they abused the situation and it's now coming home to roost. People became tired of paying subs and especially when they have to pay both a subscription and for expansions. It's about value for money and sub games are not providing that any more. I would be happy to pay for an expansion every 6-9 months. I can look at the expansion and decide whether it offers me value for money. Competition is good for the market. The old situation where a single player completely dominated the market was not especially as the social aspect of the game effectively prohibited new entrants (people played because their friends played so unless all of their friends switched to a new game, it wasn't worth going across).

  17. #57
    Dreadlord Iryne's Avatar
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    Any number of active players that doesn't come from gaming companies is simply guess. Companies haven't released accurate numbers of their player-base.

    We can look NCSoft 1Q earnings release and see GW2 box sales numbers. Note: These are box sales, these do not tell anything about how many of buyers are actively playing.

    ~source

    Guild Wars 2 accounted for 21% of sales, down from 45% from previous quarter. The decrease in NA and EU contributions was due to "the reduction in Guild Wars 2 package sales," according to the report. All of NCsoft's subsidiaries posted drops in sales from last quarter except for NC Taiwan.

    This made NCsoft's Nah Seong Chan say that the company is "preparing an expansion pack" but has yet to decide when it might launch. But ArenaNet said as recently as March that it was not working on an expansion. This created some confusion on fanbase and NCSoft corrected their statement to “wait-and-see”.

    I will wait 2Q sales numbers... and continue to play what ever I like. I am currently playing my fourth lvl 80 character on GW2. I do maps, wvw, instances, ect and just have fun with friends I have made in GW2 and friends who I met in WoW. I do like current "story release" system. For those who aren't familiar with that, is the way ArenaNet releases stories for players. Normally it comes ~montly, lately it has been going on much faster.

    This will be long part (read from bottom to top to get idea of story so far):

    June 25 Chaos has come to Lion’s Arch and the culprits responsible for the mayhem have holed up in their hideout. Inspector Ellen Kiel spearheaded the investigation into the murder, and she’s now gathering teams of deputies to capture the perpetrator.
    June 11 Lion’s Arch honors the defiant spirit of its citizenry with the rousing Dragon Bash festival, when revelers laugh in the face of fear.
    June
    18th Effigy Lighting Ceremony goes wrong, June 19th continuation to investigation of crime, June 20th last two missing suspects found. Investigate the suspects and identify culprit behind the attack. (new mini-game, achievements and and solo/story instances)
    May 28 The culprit behind the recent wildlife attacks on Southsun Cove has been revealed: the sylvari renegade Canach.

    In a fatally misguided attempt to free the new settlers from exploitation by The Consortium, Canach has turned the creatures of the island into tools of destruction. (new solo instance, 5-man instance and new meta/world boss)
    May 14 The merchants and traders of The Consortium have given shelter to refugees driven from their lands by the Molten Alliance, but many of these new arrivals feel more like prisoners than guests. With the new settlers on the verge of rioting and someone—or something—driving the local wildlife to new heights of aggression, it’s up to you and Lionguard Inspector Kiel to quell the violence. (open world events to study situation, new mini-game)
    April 30 In secret foundries deep beneath the Shiverpeaks, the Molten Alliance forges deadly new weaponry that combine the fiery power of the Flame Legion with the iron might of the dredge. There, Alliance weapon smiths test their creations on innocent captives, perfecting their cruel technology until it is ready to unleash on all of Tyria.

    Strike at the heart of the Molten Alliance with your comrades Rox the charr and the norn Braham. Take the battle into the enemy’s weapons facilities and defeat a final hybrid menace unlike any Tyria has ever seen (5-man dungeon to fight Molten Alliance)


    March 26 A hybrid army erupts through fiery portals in the Shiverpeaks. A Molten Alliance between the dredge and the charr Flame Legion has created a force powerful enough to massacre any who stand in their way. Join Braham and Rox in a battle to defend their homelands from annihilation. (two solo instances to defend refugee's homelands)
    February 26 Refugees head to Lion's Arch. The Consortium is assisting refugees in Lion's Arch and helping them build homes in Southsun Cove. (open world events to continue help with refugees)
    January 28 Refugees start to appear from north. They are fleeing from an unknown threat in the Shiverpeak Mountains. Build signposts, light campfires, help wounded refugees and retrieve mementos from refugees who have fallen. (open world events to help refugees)
    Sometime after the defeat of Zhaitan, the Consortium representative Canach sent an expedition to the island to survey the island and build an asura gate, as part of the Consortium's development plans for making it a tourist attraction. The team used loopholes in their orders to study the flora of the island, and in turn provoked the native karka, who had settled the island recently when fleeing the horrors of the deep sea dragon. The karka followed the survivors of the team and attacked Lion's Arch, Garrenhoff and Caledon Forest. In response, the Lionguard led a counterattack to wrest control of the island, building roads, siege weapons and outposts along the way. Finally, the Lionguard took down the Ancient Karka, and the island was secured.With the death of the Ancient Karka, the Consortium continued working to turn the island into a research and tourist attraction. (open world events to defend man city and secure island areas)
    Last edited by Iryne; 2013-06-24 at 03:19 PM.

  18. #58
    I am Murloc! draykorinee's Avatar
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    In fairness I paid $10 a month for ultima online back in 1998 so blizzard didnt set any precedents in that regard.
    As to F2P not offering the same investements, the updates of GW2 are fairly lamentable, , I doubt it has anything to do with the financial side, for me its more that they just havent put anything worthwhile doing for a longer period of time than an hour or two, its so short lived or grindy inane stuff by design. F2P is fine, and in fact I dont think I would want to subscribe to another MMO.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Fiend View Post
    Then your a mumbling dumbass who likes to make assumptions about people for the hell of it.

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by draykorinee View Post
    In fairness I paid $10 a month for ultima online back in 1998 so blizzard didnt set any precedents in that regard.
    As to F2P not offering the same investements, the updates of GW2 are fairly lamentable, , I doubt it has anything to do with the financial side, for me its more that they just havent put anything worthwhile doing for a longer period of time than an hour or two, its so short lived or grindy inane stuff by design. F2P is fine, and in fact I dont think I would want to subscribe to another MMO.
    I didn't know that Ultima had a subscription. I should have said $15 which I think is what the subscription for WOW is now. My point still stands, the subscription has no relation to the actual costs and that is the problem with the model. I am happy to do B2P, just not a subscription.

    Agree on the updates from a content point of view. They have added some nice features, fractals, etc and the holiday events have been fun, but the actual new content that has been released has not been a lot. I would really have liked to see some changes to the existing world. Shifts in the balance of power on some of the maps, etc, especially the middle tier maps. Give people a reason to visit those maps again and not 8 hours of new content every month. I would have also liked to see some more instanced content. I am only on about 75% map completion so it's not like I have seen everything yet. I also haven't done all of the dungeons. I am seeing fewer people out in the world and that bothers me.

    What I would like to have seen on the content front is this:

    1) New content between expansions = changes in maps and balance of power in the maps with new events, etc. Would also be nice if they could have added more to the personal story to tie in with this. Also, would be great if they could add a fractal a month. These fractals should be linked to existing zones (like the personal story) so it wouldn't be necessary for the artists to spend a huge amount of time.
    2) Expansion (every 9 months) = 6-7 new zones with events, 5+ dungeons and about 5-6 more fractals. I still feel that fractals is under used and would love to see more variation in there.

    Other wishes I have are:
    1) Instanced versions of the world bosses. This can be linked to guilds, 5 man parties or just zoned so that only 10 people can do a world boss event instance. More people arriving would end up in a new instance.
    2) More tactics and less health, especially for the world events. I really can't see the point in spending 30-40 minutes doing Jormag. If I battle him these days, I wait until the final phase and then join (about 15 minutes after he has landed). I enjoy the shaman fight but even that drags on too long.
    3) Fix the economy.

  20. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by Gray_Matter View Post
    This is true. One needs a relatively small sample to get an accurate estimation. The only problem I see in this case is that the sample will be skewed because it's only looking at a specific subset of the client base, in this case, those who use VOIP. In fact, it's likely that this figure would be skewed more towards something like WOW which needs VOIP for raids. Anecdotal Evidence: I often used VOIP for WOW raiding but haven't needed to use it for GW2 yet.

    ---------- Post added 2013-06-24 at 02:00 PM ----------



    I agree it's shrinking but I disagree with the second part. The investment doesn't need to be that big depending on how the game is developed. It should even be possible to license an engine that can do 90% of what the game developers need.

    I think you need to look at why F2P is taking off before saying it's not a good thing. Blizzard set a precedent with WOW. The $10 monthly cost. It may have had a relation to the support costs right in the beginning but that wouldn't have lasted long. At one point, they were making a billion dollars per year from subscriptions which far exceeded their costs. With all of their discounts they have offered, they have never discounted the subs, probably because these were their biggest earner. IMHO, they abused the situation and it's now coming home to roost. People became tired of paying subs and especially when they have to pay both a subscription and for expansions. It's about value for money and sub games are not providing that any more. I would be happy to pay for an expansion every 6-9 months. I can look at the expansion and decide whether it offers me value for money. Competition is good for the market. The old situation where a single player completely dominated the market was not especially as the social aspect of the game effectively prohibited new entrants (people played because their friends played so unless all of their friends switched to a new game, it wasn't worth going across).
    B2P and certainly F2P are not good alternatives for subscription based MMORPG s in the long run.

    These mmorpg games - when trying to evolve - are simply too costly to make within the set goals.

    That goal is letting the player have a "world to live" in experience.

    So ... Without these monthly assured revenue streams, you have to CUT COSTS everywhere.

    Examples in GW2 ? No seamless background loading world. No fast transport system, no mount or other riding system.

    You ONLY meet loading screens. Loading screens to enter a zone, loading screen for fast travel, loading screen to replace a mount system.

    Reason:cost saving. It is so much easier and cost effective to work in separate created instances than having to design a full fledged open ended world.

    The end result is that we are in regression mode. The more cost saving, the more features will be scrapped in future designs.

    Take World of Tanks: jumping from one saved map to another one. There is no longer a difference berween these kinds of so called mmorpg's and the loading maps of say CoD.

    MMORPG's HAD open worlds and mount systems 10 years ago. Now it is easier and more cost effective to simply load maps with loading screens.

    Free to play games and buy to play games CAN be profitable... in OTHER markets, like iPad games or Facebook games or some smart small scaled pvp content like DOTA games, but not in games that demand open worlds to live and adventure in endlessly.

    That's why MMORPG 's are clearly in regression mode. They now turned to free to play techniques and this simply is not enough to guarantee a world to adventure in... Without having fixed income from subscriptions.

    So GW2, just like GW1 is doomed to have an expansion every 2 years with an ever dwinding user base ... And after 6 years you pull the plug, just like GW1.

    As to former AAA subscription based titles, their future is even more dark, as the next installment will just be enough to give the impression of survival.

    Look at Blizzard: they scrapped Titan for now and will release a free to play mutli platform gamette with 15 co workers. Hearthstone will probably make more money as a CCG than any newly launched MMORPG these days.

    -----


    The MMORPG market drove itself into a dead end and it won't be easely solved because production costs are too high to still design full world content ... AND maintain/let it grow...

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