Originally Posted by
Aredyl
Since one can not directly compare subscriptions vs active users (since NCSoft does not release that info), we can break down revenue and use that as a measure of health.
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I seen this argument and figured I'd break down the 1Q 2013 numbers for NCSoft (assuming that its sales are for all aspects of the games, not just box copies).
First, they generated ₩184,875 million in revenue, which translates to about $168 million USD (estimated based on the exchange rate during that period).
That would be split between Lineage (38%), GW2 (21%), Aion (16%), and other sales (25%).
Lineage would account for $63.9 mil, GW2 at $35.3 mil, Aion at $26.9 mil, and other games at $42 mil.
For the previous quarter (4Q2012), they generated around ₩284,423 million, or $237 million USD (estimated exchange rate at the end of that quarter).
That would be split between Lineage (24%), GW2 (45%), Aion (9%), and other sales (22%).
Lineage would account for $56.88 mil, GW2 $106.65 mil, Aion $21.33 mil, and others at $52.14 mil.
That would put GW2 losing about 67% of its reveune from 4Q 2012 to 1Q 2013. (Note: this is for worldwide sales. US sales would be only significantly more drastic. US sales dropped in half from 4Q 2012 to 1Q 2013)
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Wow's primary mode of revenue generation is from subscriptions. Its a bit easier to calculate that, as a 14% decrease in subscriptions translates closely to a 14% decrease in revenue. Also, for comparison purposes, 8.3 million subscribers for a 3 month period would generate around $348.5 million (at the $13.99 rate per month). At 9.6 million subscribers, that would be about $402.9 million for 4Q2013
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In a comparison in revenue, I would say that GW2 has dropped off considerably in this comparison. GW2 generated about 26.5% of the revenue that WoW did for 4Q2012, and dipped to about 10.1% to WoW's in 1Q2013. If anything, its odd to see Lineage to have more revenue generated in a quarter than GW2, especially this early in its life cycle.
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For me, I would think that WoW, even though it has lost 14% of its subscriber base, is the healthier MMO. GW2's drastic drop in revenue from the two quarters has me wondering if it has the staying power. If GW2 has another dip in revenue in the next quarter (especially in the NA and Euro market), I wonder if it'll beat out Lineage or Aion, let alone WoW.