If you're in the right place at the right time you can find a good pug. And there are things you can do to make sure you're in the right place too. I put some of my alts in an insanely large raiding (6000+ members) guild in hopes that I could fill my "off-time" with more casual raiding. The guild is part of a raiding podcast community so most everyone in the guild has the same aspirations of raiding.
One night I was looking for a ToT pug in that alt guild and couldn't find one...so I started my own. I only required above 495 ilvl and at least ToT LFR experience. I picked up a mix of people ranging from 1/12 to 7/12 (I have a full clear experience). We went 5/12.
On the other hand I would never start a ToT pug on my main's server because...well... I've been in recent groups that wiped on Sha. There is a difference between being inexperienced and just being a terrible player. Since my faction can't even kill Sha (much less Oondasta) then I won't even bother with pugging LFR.
The point is if you're in the wrong guild,faction or server you probably will never find a pug. May be the virtual realms will make this better. If the virtual realms just combine a bunch a small servers I doubt it will because the more raiding driven players have already transfered off to better servers. We'll just end up with a concentration of terrible players who will still wipe on Sha.