Always interesting how many game industry experts come out of the woodwork on posts like this.
It is a bit weird to see the subs so low, but over the years I've noticed that sub numbers go up or down based on whether *I* am playing. Therefore, Blizzard should work hard to earn *my* favor. Silliness aside, I do feel like something of an individual representative of the population Blizzard is trying to court, on both sides of the coin: Hardcore and Casual at the same time.
The fact is that Blizzard's rise to fame came at a time when there just wasn't as much on the market. Now? Any game with a big market share better know its days are numbered, because the truth is many players just aren't invested in
anything the same way. Why would we be?
I'm high on my red wine so, to bore you to death (though it's part of my point), here's my current game roster: My big hours and multiplayer time are in Firefall's beta. Some nights I jump into Planetside 2 because I just love the scale of it all. I play Neverwinter (which is awful) for ~10 minutes/day because I like the professions. I occasionally play Towns (mediocre Dwarf Fortress clone on Steam) because I hate myself. When I feel ambitious I work on getting through the various Dragon Age DLC/sequels, or similar Mass Effect. I sometimes play Minecraft, Diablo 3, Monaco, Torchlight 2, Payday, Civ 5, Fallen Enchantress, and a dozen other games.
My point? Why would I play WoW? How much content can Pandaria offer? I played it a bit, thought it was solid, but... why pay $15/month for it? I've been through the raiding song and dance so many times. I've geared up in heroics and PVP so many times. I've leveled so many times. I've done all this with
alts so many times. I've spent hour after hour building spreadsheets to figure out some new feature, poking at EJ to see whether my numbers are right. I've done it all a thousand times (probably more like 4-6 times, considering number of xpacs): Why would I do it again?
This is what every post-WoW MMO is failing at. Why do I care about doing 15/20/25/whatever-man raids? The same mechanics, the same character development, the same
stories FFS.
Free to play isn't the problem. Catering to casuals isn't the problem. Quality of design isn't the problem, talent changes aren't the problem, lack of change or too much change aren't the problem. It's just that Blizz can't innovate away from WoW while trying to court the population that
does still enjoy it. It was always going to happen, now it's happening, BFD.
Source: I am a game dev. I spend more hours reading industry post-mortems each week than most in this thread do playing WoW. I'm probably still wrong; nobody knows anything anymore and we'll never have true experts again. C'est la singularité.
Cheers, and long live WoW. The devs have worked hard, and it's been fun to watch usurpers try and fail, year after year. I hope I get to enjoy it a bit longer.