3rd Quarter Sub Loss Predictions!

[Pejo]

Alright, let's take a closer look at this:
The quote:

I don't know what the exact number is off-hand, but the total number of subscribers we've had is easily more than double - maybe closer to triple - the current subscriber base."

WoW released in Nov 2004, and 5 years later, they did that quote as well as the quote that they believe that the majority of people who was going to play WoW already played WoW. So that means in 5 years, they were losing 6301 players per day (11.5M/365*5) at its most conservative amount of players. If it is indeed closer to triple, they were losing 12602 players per day AT THE MOST. However, during this time, they had a huge draw for players. It was a very popular IP and was had a low gate for trying out the game (only had to buy WoW box which was $40). So during this time, they felt the majority of people who were going to play WoW (let's use the ages of 10-70, we can actually use 5-70 due to being 5 years later). Assuming that quote is true, this means that there is a small minority between ages 5-70 that did not play WoW that did want to play WoW and then we have the new gamers who were just being born to age 1-4 at the time since this only 4 years after that. That is A LOT smaller user base to try to draw from. The entry barrier is the same as WOTLK (two expansions and battlechest so 3 games) BUT it is now 90 levels instead of 80. For those wanting to play with their friends, this would reduce the incentive of wanting to play.

Also, let's say they do give the trial a try - the game is 9 years old so the incentive to teach and be friendly to new players is lower than it was 5 years ago. Hell, they even tried to introduce a guild program for guilds that would be helpful to new players and recommended those servers on new accounts.

From there, there has also been a massive amount of changes over the years (doesn't matter if they're good or bad, they have occurred). For players who were interested in coming back, this adds an additional barrier that can detract from players coming back.

Now, let's talk about competition. At release, WoW was the CASUAL of MMOs that were available. There was Everquest, Eve, Guild Wars 1 and a few others but basically, games that were much more hardcore and also used the subscription model. Let's take a look at the current market: We have SWTOR (very large IP, and F2P...even though it is a shitty model), Guild Wars 2 (B2P), Tera (F2P), Age of Wushu (F2P), Rift (F2P) AND many others, including Everquest and Eve. So for someone who was just interested in a MMORPG, they have games that offer a lower bar for entry and offer a comparative experience (in some ways).

Let's take a look at what has occurred with WoW since 2009: It peaked at 12M quickly after this announcement, then started dropping during this same expansion to 11.5, peaking again in 2011 for Cata. Since then, it has dropped to 7.7M losing 4300 people per day. So all this says that the 9 year old game is still losing people per day, but not bringing in as many due to the many reasons above. I'm sure if I spent some actual time doing this that I could come up with a hell of a lot more reasons.

[chadashcroft22]

Inb4 f2p announcement at blizzcon. How much more do you let the ship sink before trying to cash out?

And people saying that it doesn't affect them when subs drop. Really? My server in vanilla was thriving and you couldn't move a couple feet without running into people in orgrimmar. Now it's pretty much a ghost town with a few people here and there. You can really only pve and pvp because they linked up servers but there is no more community or "life" left in a lot of these servers. Do you like going into nightclubs with only 2 or 3 people in the place or do you like it when it's filled up?

And to the people that think this patch will bring back players. Rofl you got to be trolling. They will be lucky if the next xpac will gain them more than they lose in subs.

[Aquamonkey]

Let's take a look at what has occurred with WoW since 2009: It peaked at 12M quickly after this announcement, then started dropping during this same expansion to 11.5, peaking again in 2011 for Cata.

The first peak was during WotLK launch at 11.8M at the end of 2008. It stabilized around 11.5M until the second peak of 12M in Q3 2010 during WotLK, a couple months before Cata. Cata was constant decline. It went up from 9M to 10M at the end of 2012 when MoP was released.

[Mawnix]

Inb4 f2p announcement at blizzcon. How much more do you let the ship sink before trying to cash out?

And people saying that it doesn't affect them when subs drop. Really? My server in vanilla was thriving and you couldn't move a couple feet without running into people in orgrimmar. Now it's pretty much a ghost town with a few people here and there. You can really only pve and pvp because they linked up servers but there is no more community or "life" left in a lot of these servers. Do you like going into nightclubs with only 2 or 3 people in the place or do you like it when it's filled up?

And to the people that think this patch will bring back players. Rofl you got to be trolling. They will be lucky if the next xpac will gain them more than they lose in subs.

Sigh.

Posts like this just..

I can't.

I really just can't.

I wish threads about subs just weren't allowed here.

[But I Hate You All]

-snip-

Wow did not even start seeing sub loses till Cataclysm at that point the game was 7 year old. The game did not just start losing more subs than it was gaining solely because of the games age, design decisions and the dev's being out of touch with thier player base would seem more probable. Lets face it most people say nothing but negative things about Cataclysm, when people gave feedback to the Devs at the start of cata they were told to suck it up. Once they started losing subs they fixed the design more towards what players wanted. Mop people say negative and good things bu the overall thing you hear is it was meh, did not fit in to the wow universe, did not feel right, ZOMFG PANDAS!!!!, The issues with Dailies and other grinds.

Personally I think the reason subs are still being lost is because we have had two piss poor Expansions where the dev's seem out of touch with what the players really want and they try to fix it when it's too late.

[Sithalos]

Over 9k sub losses, easy.

[But I Hate You All]

Sigh.

Posts like this just..

I can't.

I really just can't.

I wish threads about subs just weren't allowed here.

Than don't click on them....Really you posted just to complain about the thread and add nothing to it.

The first peak was during WotLK launch at 11.8M at the end of 2008. It stabilized around 11.5M until the second peak in Q3 2010 during WotLK. Cata was constant decline. It went up from 9M to 10M at the end of 2012 when MoP was released.

Yeah I think the devs became pretty out of touch with Cata thinking people will play no matter how crappy it is.

- - - Updated - - -

Inb4 f2p announcement at blizzcon. How much more do you let the ship sink before trying to cash out?

And people saying that it doesn't affect them when subs drop. Really? My server in vanilla was thriving and you couldn't move a couple feet without running into people in orgrimmar. Now it's pretty much a ghost town with a few people here and there. You can really only pve and pvp because they linked up servers but there is no more community or "life" left in a lot of these servers. Do you like going into nightclubs with only 2 or 3 people in the place or do you like it when it's filled up?

And to the people that think this patch will bring back players. Rofl you got to be trolling. They will be lucky if the next xpac will gain them more than they lose in subs.

It wont go F2p any time soon. Subs do have a direct effect on all players in the game

[Deleted]

Dumbest thing I ever read. An expansion doesn't make an 8 year old game new again.

yy, MOP is the first expansion and there were no patches in 8 years at all.....where is the wizard of oz when he is needed -.-

[Sharuko]

I will say it loses another 500k easily, and after patch 5.4 settles down it will lose much more. However, it doesn't matter because it will still be king of MMOs. Games like GW2 sold 3.5 million copies and then lost 80%-85% of its population within 6 months and are pretty much dead. Same with other MMOs like SWTOR after launch. The same things happen in F2P games like Tera and Neverwinter, huge bump with F2P and then massive decline. The MMO genre overall is in a slump not because MMOs are failing but because the population is spread out across over a dozen MMOs.

I think the real test for WoW is next year when they go up against MMOs like WildStar and ESO. Because lets be honest right now the MMOs in the market are all pretty much trash. And even though WoW is average right now, it makes other magic and sword MMOs look bad. WoW has no competition, I haven't played FFXIV yet so I am not sure how that is.

[CandyCotton Marshmallows]

If more players quit then that's good.

Chances are they are casual and that means less crappy players to have an unfortunate experience by playing this game together with them in LFD or LFR.

Actually, all the people I know that quit were 'hardcore'. You know, people who worked on heroic progression, loved raiding, had 3-4 raid nights a week, was their main focus, etc. Raiding burnout happens. When you play the game for 6+ years, you get tired of the gear cycles. You get tired of the major class changes. You start to miss the 'good ol' days'; because you miss your class the way it was, and you miss the way raiding use to feel (which can be a community feel, not always the raid design itself).

WoW is casual btw. You just hate to admit it to yourself. EverQuest was hardcore, WoW was made casual to support players who didn't want to lose xp when they died, who didn't want to mob grind until their eyes bled, etc. So this 'casual' bullshit can end already lol

Also, saying 'together with them in LFD/LFR' ... are you calling yourself casual? Because compared to heroic raiders, you would be. Then again, toxicity can be from anyone, 'casual', 'hardcore', 'lazy', 'lifer', etc. Afkers and trash talkers, no matter what demographic they fit in, are the bane of the game in general.


The dropoff of subs will relate to how people do with progression in SoO. If the raid is good, and progress is slow; adding in Blizzcon effects; there might be a sub gain for that quarter ... then, depending on next xpac release/pre-xpac-patching, beta timing, etc ... we could see another rise (perfect world), or see a drastic fall.

summary; coming quarter - positive outlook: 8-8.5 mil ... bad outlook: 7-7.5 mil. next quarter - positive: 8-9 million with new xpac release; negative: 6 mil bottom out waiting for new xpac release.

[Pejo]

The first peak was during WotLK launch at 11.8M at the end of 2008. It stabilized around 11.5M until the second peak of 12M in Q3 2010 during WotLK, a couple months before Cata. Cata was constant decline. It went up from 9M to 10M at the end of 2012 when MoP was released.

My apologies.

Wow did not even start seeing sub loses till Cataclysm at that point the game was 7 year old. The game did not just start losing more subs than it was gaining solely because of the games age, design decisions and the dev's being out of touch with thier player base would seem more probable. Lets face it most people say nothing but negative things about Cataclysm, when people gave feedback to the Devs at the start of cata they were told to suck it up. Once they started losing subs they fixed the design more towards what players wanted. Mop people say negative and good things bu the overall thing you hear is it was meh, did not fit in to the wow universe, did not feel right, ZOMFG PANDAS!!!!, The issues with Dailies and other grinds.

Personally I think the reason subs are still being lost is because we have had two piss poor Expansions where the dev's seem out of touch with what the players really want and they try to fix it when it's too late.

I'm sure there are plenty of design decisions people don't agree with - the point is there has ALWAYS existed reasons for people leaving but has only become more apparent because they aren't drawing as many people to WoW for the many reasons I've stated above. The worst part about all of this is there will be a point that subs will stagnate - not because things have all of a sudden become AWESOME, but rather because they've come to their sub base that like WoW because it's WoW.

Up to Cataclysm, here are some design decisions that people did not agree with:
Maintenance is NEVER how long is stated - game is unplayable for days - I quit.
Starting with Patch 1.2 - Players will now be able to purchase and train mounts from other races in their faction (have to be exalted) - Takes away from race culture and now anyone can have my Nightsaber!
Several instance bosses and sub-bosses have had their levels slightly lowered. / STV Arena being changed - WoW is too casual, they're dumbing it down already.
Battlegrounds are added to the game - WTF, you're killing world pvp, I QUIT.
Corrupted Blood Pandemic - I can't even play the game when I log in, people are griefing me, I quit.
Gates of AQ Event - I can't even log into Silithus, and level my character. Blizzard, you're stupid for causing everyone to come to Silithus and destroying my play.
Cross-Realm Battlegrounds - WTF, no more server reputation, I quit.
BC is announced and the talents to go with - They're taking away my talents and destroying my hybrid builds. Rogues/Locks/Priests/Shamans....and the rest ARE SO f'ing OP, I quit.
PVP Arenas/Flying Added - Taking away from World PVP, I quit.
Dishonorable Kills Removed - Wow, way to casualize this game - WoW is dying.
Achievements/Barbershop added to the game - Decisions that you make in the beginning no longer matter. They may as well add it for everything else because they are dumbing down the game. Achievements is for the console casuals - this is a hardcore PC game!
WOTLK Pre-Event Zombie Event - You could literally bathe in the tears on the forum.
Dual Talent Specialization - This is killing who my character is - I can change who I am in just a click. FUCKING Casual.
Player uses GM item named Martin's Fury, gets multiple world first achievements - Fuck, he is cheating, and now I can't even get a chance at the achievement. Fuck Blizzard.
Faction Change Service: Wow, your faction no longer matters. People are just going to faction change all the time to gain whatever advantage they can. Even worse, you have to pay for it. Fuck you Blizzard, I already pay $15 a month.
Onyxia's Lair Revamp for 80 : REHASH.
WoW Accounts being merged to Battle.Net accounts: This is not cool. I have the perfect wow account name and I can't even play unless I merge it? Go to hell.
Race Change Service: See Faction change, switch out faction with the word race.
Cross server Instance Grouping - Killing server reputation even further!
Lich King Encounter - Wow, 10 people should not be able to kill Lich King - he shouldn't even be killed by 25, he should be a 100 person raid.
Random Battleground System, marks of honor removed - wow, dumb down the game some more, Blizzard.
Real ID is implemented - I'll be stalked and people will know who I really am.
Real ID on Forum announcement - don't even need to add more.
In-Game Events for Cataclysm - WTF Blizzard, I hide in Orgrimmar so I don't die/need to fight. I am quitting, fix your shit.
Cataclysm Commercial during Football game (Cowboys vs Vikings) - Desperate much, Blizzard? Now the game is going to be full of noobs. I'm not going to be here for when that happens.
The Shattering - The old world is removed, and I can't even get it back?! You have killed the WoW I know and used to love.
New Class-Race Combos added - NO, you're destroying lore, Blizzard!@! LORE!
Cataclysm new zones - There is no endgame Blizzard, you spent all your time on 1-60 zones that NOOONE ever does.
Blizzard files complaints with Paypal to make buying gold more difficult - Such bullshit that you waste time with that when you could be making me new zones/dungeons.
ZA/ZG Revamped - no need to add more.
Trial Accounts no longer expire - Wow, now I'm just going to get spammed even more by gold farmers, fuck this game.
Blizzard bans 600k hackers, exploiters, gold sellers accounts - You've banned my friends, I'm no longer playing this fucking game.

Edit: Forgot the disaster that was Alliance getting Shaman and Horde getting Paladins, that was a good one.

[Himora]

Isle where casuals can get easy epics and players can PvP own faction + rogues buffed = tears & rage quits.
Q4 stuff tho

You honestly think a new isle full of more grind and grind and grind is making casuals happy? i dont think so.

[But I Hate You All]

You honestly think a new isle full of more grind and grind and grind is making casuals happy? i dont think so.

Oh yea if SoO is like Ds or ICC and around for a year they will lose tons

[Karizee]

Games like GW2 sold 3.5 million copies and then lost 80%-85% of its population within 6 months and are pretty much dead.

Wrong. There's actually more people playing now than at launch.

[BenBos]

Wrong. There's actually more people playing now than at launch.

Stop spreading false information that anyone can see by simply loggin in.

The fact your GW2 game lost all this activity despite having no subscription is a serious indication it is just GW1 with a new added number.

Copies sold is no active players and since it is an MMORPG that really shows it never can be compared with a SUBSCRIPTION based game.

So stay out with your usual GW2 propaganda in a WoW thread about non existent subscriptions of your game.

[Fatherfork]

Its that time of year again, soon the 3rd Quarter will be over, and we will have another conference call with the latest sub losses released. What are your predictions for sub losses this quarter?

Here is the historical quarterly sub losses since Q1 2012:

Q1 2012: 0 Sub Loss - Remained Steady
Q2 2012: 1.1 Million Subs Lost
Q3 2012: 900,000 Subs Gained; Up to just at 10 Million Subscriptions
Q4 2012: 100,000 Subs Lost
Q1 2013: 1.3 Million Subs Lost
Q2 2013: 600,000 Subs Lost; Down to 7.7 Million Subscriptions

Q3 2012: <Your Predicted Sub Loss Figure>


My prediction is about 200,000 Subs lost, but could be more. I am taking the conservative side in my predictions. What are your predictions?

so... 10 million minus 100k minus 1.3M minus 600k = 8M, not 7.7M. you did some math wrong there somewhere. Or more likely you labeled a quarter wrong.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh yea if SoO is like Ds or ICC and around for a year they will lose tons

I'd expect no more than 6 months of SoO. Blizz recently increased production staff by 40% (back in july) and plan to increase by another 40% by october. If they could previously produce an expansion in a year, nearly doubling the team should give them an expansion in 6 months (from now) with a yearly expansion after that, which is Ghost crawler's goal.

Blizz had wanted to do this back in wrath, but activision said no way to increase in staff. Now that blizz has full control again, we should be seeing content a lot faster beginning with patch 6.0.

They also stated that their intent on content production is that you are able to progress one character steadily, rather than getting bored with one and creating more alts, similar to how vanilla feel was. You never had time for too many alts, because there was still content to do on your main.

[Osmeric]

I'd expect no more than 6 months of SoO.

I should hope so. Even six months may cause damage.

Now that blizz has full control again,

What? How did you come to think that was the case?

[Cosmic Janitor]

I'd expect no more than 6 months of SoO. Blizz recently increased production staff by 40% (back in july) and plan to increase by another 40% by october. If they could previously produce an expansion in a year, nearly doubling the team should give them an expansion in 6 months (from now) with a yearly expansion after that, which is Ghost crawler's goal.

Blizz had wanted to do this back in wrath, but activision said no way to increase in staff. Now that blizz has full control again, we should be seeing content a lot faster beginning with patch 6.0.

They also stated that their intent on content production is that you are able to progress one character steadily, rather than getting bored with one and creating more alts, similar to how vanilla feel was. You never had time for too many alts, because there was still content to do on your main.

Where did you take these informations from, especially the 40% stuff about their staff? Also activision-blizzard bought itself free from VIVENDI not blizzard from activision. Furthermore, where is aquamonkey when you need him? I want the link to the blue post(s) that says all the stuff you talk about.

Edit: Because of a serious case of horrid engrish, and the senteces are still wonky, sry.

[PetersenIII]

Q3 2012: 900,000 Subs Gained; Up to just at 10 Million Subscriptions
Q4 2012: 100,000 Subs Lost
Q1 2013: 1.3 Million Subs Lost
Q2 2013: 600,000 Subs Lost; Down to 7.7 Million Subscriptions

I know my arithmetic can be a little off at times, but 10-7.7 = 2.3; 0.1+1.3+06. = 2. Where did that other 300,000 subscriptions go if they were not lost, but are no longer subscribed (banned? <.<)?

[Osmeric]

Also activision-blizzard bought itself free from VIVENDI not blizzard from activision.

If anything, Blizzard will be less shielded from Activision than it was before, as Vivendi will no longer control the board.