View Poll Results: What is your Sub Loss Prediction?

Voters
1318. You may not vote on this poll
  • 0-100k Sub Loss

    225 17.07%
  • 100k - 500k Sub Loss

    446 33.84%
  • 500k - 1M Sub Loss

    320 24.28%
  • Greater than 1 Million Sub Loss

    236 17.91%
  • Other

    91 6.90%
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  1. #501
    I think 5.4 is going to really fudge the numbers so they don't seem as extreme as they really are. I expect Q3 numbers to be down about 700,000, or 7 Million subs total left.

    I think that real number though, after 5.4 is done for a bunch of people since they've resubbed and are, for all intents and purposes, finished with 5.4 is closer to 6.5 million.

    I expect a continued decline through Q4, which doesn't have a new expansion release to prop sales up like past years. In all honesty, I expect the next expansion to launch with around 5.5 million to 6.5 million subs tops.

  2. #502
    Banned Tierbook's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thetruth1400 View Post
    I think 5.4 is going to really fudge the numbers so they don't seem as extreme as they really are. I expect Q3 numbers to be down about 700,000, or 7 Million subs total left.

    I think that real number though, after 5.4 is done for a bunch of people since they've resubbed and are, for all intents and purposes, finished with 5.4 is closer to 6.5 million.

    I expect a continued decline through Q4, which doesn't have a new expansion release to prop sales up like past years. In all honesty, I expect the next expansion to launch with around 5.5 million to 6.5 million subs tops.
    maybe but this quarter started after 5.2 right? If you look on the front page the number of people that completed t13 to t14 went down about 20% and t14 to the first wing of t15 is down another 20% so far

  3. #503
    Quote Originally Posted by Dilbon View Post
    That's the problem of all MMOs nowadays. The segregation of players into hardcores and casuals is just a big mess that causes mutual name calling.
    It's not just MMO's, it's most games with an online community.

    I think the dickwad theory plays a big role in it.

  4. #504
    Over 9000! Glorious Leader's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dilbon View Post
    That's the problem of all MMOs nowadays. The segregation of players into hardcores and casuals is just a big mess that causes mutual name calling.
    The developers tend to exacerbate this in a number of ways.
    The hammer comes down:
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    Normal should be reduced in difficulty. Heroic should be reduced in difficulty.
    And the tiny fraction for whom heroic raids are currently well tuned? Too bad,so sad! With the arterial bleed of subs the fastest it's ever been, the vanity development that gives you guys your own content is no longer supportable.

  5. #505
    Quote Originally Posted by Dilbon View Post
    That's the problem of all MMOs nowadays. The segregation of players into hardcores and casuals is just a big mess that causes mutual name calling.
    That's because game developers think that they can shoe horn everyone into a on-size-fits-all MMO and not understanding why they fail. Greed is king in the genre now days and quality suffers from it.
    There are 10 kinds of people. Those who understand binary and those who dont.

  6. #506
    I am Murloc! ringpriest's Avatar
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    I'm usually completely wrong on guessing sub gains/losses, but I voted "Other" because I'm predicting a mild gain.

    It's my guess/opinion that a lot of the losses MoP has been seeing post-launch were actually delayed reactions to the awfulness that was Cataclysm. Blizz did everything they could to pad sub numbers during Cata, and I think it took a long time for the all the people for whom Cata killed the game, or maybe for whom MoP just wasn't quite enough (for whatever reason) to drop out. But that should have all shaken out of the system by now, and MoP is presumably losing or keeping subs solely on its own merits. 5.4 has clearly been popular, so I'm going to predict a slight gain in subs.

  7. #507
    It will be a mild loss, like 100-300k or something like that.

    I would expect small losses like that every quarter except when expansions come out, which will see small increases.

    Really don't ever expect to see any meaningful increase outside of new expansions ever again.

  8. #508
    Quote Originally Posted by KrazyK923 View Post
    Who cares?

    Why is it that the same few people seemingly relish the idea of sub losses. I'd even go so far as to say its like a gleeful horniness over the game slowing down.

    The game isn't shutting down any time remotely soon. What a sad life it must be to be on a WoW fan website just constantly talking down about the game. Sounds like a huge waste of time broseph.

    Move on already. At least other people provide (sometimes) interesting criticisms that Blizzard should take. I cannot say the same for you.
    I don't think it really has anything to do with them being happy about the actual sub loss or wanting Blizzard to fail.

    I think it's more about a joy and hilarity that is gained from watching a certain group of rabid Blizzard defenders (that defend blizzard no matter what) scramble to make a new defense as to why Blizzard is not failing or this is not the downfall of Blizzard or insert X defense. Your response is actually one of the responses they get excited over.


    Personally, I hope for a huge sub loss, because I don't think that Blizzard is trying hard enough. They produce far too little content for charging $15 bucks a month. The original reason they charged this much was a claim of server costs + adding content. Server costs are extremely low now so that excuse doesn't fly. They rarely put out content, as they spend most of their money developing expansions and other games. To me this is a rip off to the consumer and I hope it hits Blizzard where it hurts most, right in the wallet.

    I mean consider just a moment the over $50 million dollars they are bringing in off subs each month. Most blockbuster games don't cost $50 million to produce. So EVERY single month, they are bringing in more than most companies use to produce an entire blockbuster game. And how much content do we get from this? Timeless isle? Awesome job.
    Last edited by Zurtle; 2013-10-22 at 05:48 AM.

  9. #509
    I could honestly see it being the biggest loss yet purely because the time between 5.2 and 5.4 was pretty much "come back, get korkron gear!" for people who unsubbed but those still subbed at the time had no reason to play if they were casual players and i imagine the drought of content pushed a lot away before 5.4 hit.

  10. #510
    I'm really looking forward to Blizzcon and all the things they're going to announce, especially in WoW.

    Couldn't give less of a shit about the sub numbers.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tojara View Post
    Look Batman really isn't an accurate source by any means
    Quote Originally Posted by Hooked View Post
    It is a fact, not just something I made up.

  11. #511
    Quote Originally Posted by KrazyK923 View Post
    Who cares?

    Why is it that the same few people seemingly relish the idea of sub losses. I'd even go so far as to say its like a gleeful horniness over the game slowing down.

    The game isn't shutting down any time remotely soon. What a sad life it must be to be on a WoW fan website just constantly talking down about the game. Sounds like a huge waste of time broseph.

    Move on already. At least other people provide (sometimes) interesting criticisms that Blizzard should take. I cannot say the same for you.
    The hypocrisy in this post is utterly astounding. I have yet to see you add a single positive thing to ANY discussion on this forum yet.

  12. #512
    Quote Originally Posted by Woceip View Post
    The fact that this is something people want to discuss, and even (based on the ! in the title) are excited to discuss, is rather depressing.
    Morbid isn't it?

    Quote Originally Posted by igame View Post
    And all these people suddenly had all these things happen with the start of cata? Look, I don't want to argue mate but Blizz has been doing bare minimum and making the most illogical decisions for the past couple of years.
    People have been making schadenfreude posts about WoW's inevitable doom as long as I've been reading forums. Even back when the subs were still growing.

    I think you might get away with claiming Blizz coasted during Cata, it was certainly less revolutionary than other expansions, but in MoP they've done anything but the bare minimum. Personally I've felt almost overwhelmed by how much content and variety they put into it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tojara View Post
    Look Batman really isn't an accurate source by any means
    Quote Originally Posted by Hooked View Post
    It is a fact, not just something I made up.

  13. #513
    I guess some of you will be making this threads untill WoW loses last players, then you finally will be happy and free of hate
    my PSN ID - Kobold_Rider

  14. #514
    I am Murloc! prwraith's Avatar
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    I like wow but I'm predicting a sub drop.

    And I'm hoping the trend continues. Innovation via actual competition for the top spot needs to be reintroduced.

  15. #515
    Considering that SoO was released (albeit in the middle of Q3), I would imagine that the damage is less rather than more. Still, that makes me fear for Q4!

  16. #516
    Over 9000! Glorious Leader's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mormolyce View Post
    .

    I think you might get away with claiming Blizz coasted during Cata, it was certainly less revolutionary than other expansions, but in MoP they've done anything but the bare minimum. Personally I've felt almost overwhelmed by how much content and variety they put into it.
    By their own admission mists or any expansion cannot be revolutionary. Mists has been regressive at best, the "content" is basically the same shit but it takes twice as long to do. The "content" is really just raids. On the other hand I could list PLENTY of things to do in cataclysm but nobody did them without any gear apparently and subsequently that wasn't considered content. Standards seem to change depending on the flavor of the expansion I guess.
    The hammer comes down:
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    Normal should be reduced in difficulty. Heroic should be reduced in difficulty.
    And the tiny fraction for whom heroic raids are currently well tuned? Too bad,so sad! With the arterial bleed of subs the fastest it's ever been, the vanity development that gives you guys your own content is no longer supportable.

  17. #517
    Well based on how subs have been trending I think it is squarely in the 500,000 - 1 million range. If it flattens off a bit it will end up closer to 500,000 if it continues full speed closer to 1 million.

    Even though I am not currently playing anymore I hope it starts to level off soon. If it continues as is we are start getting out of encouraging competition area and into the unable to continue to provide content at the same pace area. If it starts to decelerate now maybe things will completely level off at around 4 million subs a couple years from now.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Glorious Leader View Post
    By their own admission mists or any expansion cannot be revolutionary. Mists has been regressive at best, the "content" is basically the same shit but it takes twice as long to do. The "content" is really just raids. On the other hand I could list PLENTY of things to do in cataclysm but nobody did them without any gear apparently and subsequently that wasn't considered content. Standards seem to change depending on the flavor of the expansion I guess.
    I think they have been playing a bit of trial and error since the big sub crash of Cataclysm. LFR only seemed to postpone things for a short time and then the rapid decline in subs has continued on as usual. Hopefully they find the right formula soon.

  18. #518
    Thinking that the sub loss of Q3 will be more extreme than most people think it will be. I won't be surprised if it's more than a million, why?
    - Many people are annoyed by the fact that you can either play on a dead realm or on a realm with a 1+ hour login queue.
    - Many people are annoyed by the fact that virtual realms are rolling out so terribly slow.
    - ToT was a disappointment for a lot of people after all the hype.
    - SoO was an even bigger disappointment, another raid with 60% refurbished scenery and uninspiring trash / old boss mechanics.
    - some good games game out in Q3 that will have pulled people away from playing wow.

    I think it's all for the better though, Blizzard needs this wake-up call. Slowly losing their monopoly might mean they start innovating and making awesome content like in the old times again instead of endlessly milking their customers with 5-minute-made storemounts and refurbished content (scenery etc).
    Currently playing MMO's: WoW --- Played MMO's before: Wildstar, Tibia, Meridian59, ultima Online, EQ, Rift, Lotro, GW2, AOC, WHO, EQ2, SW:TOR, ESO

  19. #519
    Field Marshal Archypew's Avatar
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    Smile

    it will go down to ~7M subs by end of the year. But next year it will raise to ~8.5/9 in the 1st q .

    after that it will go down 1/2 to 4.5/5 M subs and will stay near 4M for a wile. ( wildstar / archeage / eso / eqnext ).

    this is not a prediction. it will indeed happen
    Last edited by Archypew; 2013-10-22 at 08:43 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mudor View Post
    Rumours about several raiders in method getting bent especially Leeds I've been hearing about. Can anyone confirm?
    Quote Originally Posted by Shudder View Post
    Looks like they're closer to 20m.

  20. #520
    Scarab Lord Gimlix's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Voidmaster View Post
    Thinking that the sub loss of Q3 will be more extreme than most people think it will be. I won't be surprised if it's more than a million, why?
    - Many people are annoyed by the fact that you can either play on a dead realm or on a realm with a 1+ hour login queue.
    - Many people are annoyed by the fact that virtual realms are rolling out so terribly slow.
    - ToT was a disappointment for a lot of people after all the hype.
    - SoO was an even bigger disappointment, another raid with 60% refurbished scenery and uninspiring trash / old boss mechanics.
    - some good games game out in Q3 that will have pulled people away from playing wow.

    I think it's all for the better though, Blizzard needs this wake-up call. Slowly losing their monopoly might mean they start innovating and making awesome content like in the old times again instead of endlessly milking their customers with 5-minute-made storemounts and refurbished content (scenery etc).
    Lol nobody was dissapointed in ToT, ToT was a raid most of the 'real' raiders were very happy with.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Archypew View Post
    it will go down to ~7M subs by end of the year. But next year it will raise to ~8.5/9 in the 1st q .

    after that it will go down 1/2 to 4.5/5 M subs and will stay near 4M for a wile. ( wildstar / archeage / eso / eqnext ).

    this is not a prediction. it will indeed happen
    Just like GW2 and SWTOR effected WoW when they were released. ow wait NOT!
    » Active MMO-Champion visitor since: 12-12-2012 «
    » Predict Warlords of Draenor to sell 3 Million copies at first day «

    Quote Originally Posted by bloodkin View Post
    no king rules forever, but WoW is a stubborn bastard.

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