View Poll Results: What is your Sub Loss Prediction?

Voters
1318. You may not vote on this poll
  • 0-100k Sub Loss

    225 17.07%
  • 100k - 500k Sub Loss

    446 33.84%
  • 500k - 1M Sub Loss

    320 24.28%
  • Greater than 1 Million Sub Loss

    236 17.91%
  • Other

    91 6.90%
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  1. #581
    I voted for 500k-1million sub loss because I don't see Flex providing enough incentive to gain players back.

    And Blizzard's response will be more scenarios, more LFR, more welfare rewards, more Timeless Isle-style garbage, more hand-holding, more pet battles and more of what ruined WoW for so many loyal WoW players. People need to realize this game isn't what it used to be and the devs have been very clear that they're striving for a totally different audience than what built their MMO up to 11-12 million people during mid-WotLK. I suppose it's up to us now if we want to continue being taken for granted while the game goes in a direction more suited to the Call of Duty community.

  2. #582
    Quote Originally Posted by Synstir View Post
    Lets just wait and see :-)
    Well lets hope you are right. But to be honest it has nothing to do with Q3 2013 sub numbers so I think it is best we leave it here.

  3. #583
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Well lets hope you are right. But to be honest it has nothing to do with Q3 2013 sub numbers so I think it is best we leave it here.
    I think if we have to run soo 1 year long..... it will cause losses in sub numbers.
    Bringing out the xpac while most players are still playing is the thing to go for and not wait untill lots of players decide to go for a break because they have raided soo enough.

  4. #584
    The release date of the patch will help to minimize sub loss for the third quarter. It will be 100k or so at most. They will however get hammered in the fourth quarter of 2013 and lose more than 2 million subs by the end of the year. If they don't have the next expansion out in the first half of 2014 they will likely fall to less than 2 mil subscribers by the end of the second quarter.

  5. #585
    Quote Originally Posted by thelightthatstrays View Post
    The release date of the patch will help to minimize sub loss for the third quarter. It will be 100k or so at most. They will however get hammered in the fourth quarter of 2013 and lose more than 2 million subs by the end of the year. If they don't have the next expansion out in the first half of 2014 they will likely fall to less than 2 mil subscribers by the end of the second quarter.
    I got the same belief as you on this. Don't expect a big sub drop, if anything maybe even a little growth. But it will be all downhill from there on without the new expansion fast. Not only do we need the next expansion fast, it needs to be a massive expansion that takes the game to a new level. It needs to be more clear on what segment they are catering to. I mean, they need to stop trying to cater to everyone and agree on a player group and don't flicker back and forth like earlier.

  6. #586
    Quote Originally Posted by Koreche View Post
    No it doesn't because you have no idea why people left wow. Someone could have left because they felt Mages were too OP QQ, and at the same time a mage left because Rogues were too strong QQ. Maybe one person left because LFR is too accessible but a LFR player just left because SoO lfr wipes too many times.

    and some people might have left just because they were simply bored of the game or real life issues.
    There are at least as many reasons why people quit as there are people who quit. Basically what the haters can never accept is that different people like different things and that their pet issues are not the issues of others.

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    Quote Originally Posted by igame View Post
    And all these people suddenly had all these things happen with the start of cata? Look, I don't want to argue mate but Blizz has been doing bare minimum and making the most illogical decisions for the past couple of years. If a developer does everything wrong and still keeps growing, it is terrible for the gaming industry.

    I hope for massive sub loss and for the next expansion itself to be a dud so that developers remember that just because they are at top now, doesn't mean they can slack off, produce shit content and treat their customers with contempt and disrespect.
    Are you seriously saying everyone quit for the same reasons? You do realize during Cata there were simultaneous threads claiming the game was both too hard and too easy right? You have to realize Blizzard is catering to a diverse audience and not everyone is going to be happy with everything nor does it mean any aspect of the game is objectively bad. Again different people like different things but again like I said people like you tend to be butthurt if anyone dares not share your opinion of the game.

  7. #587
    Immortal Destil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dd614 View Post
    I voted for 500k-1million sub loss because I don't see Flex providing enough incentive to gain players back.

    And Blizzard's response will be more scenarios, more LFR, more welfare rewards, more Timeless Isle-style garbage, more hand-holding, more pet battles and more of what ruined WoW for so many loyal WoW players. People need to realize this game isn't what it used to be and the devs have been very clear that they're striving for a totally different audience than what built their MMO up to 11-12 million people during mid-WotLK. I suppose it's up to us now if we want to continue being taken for granted while the game goes in a direction more suited to the Call of Duty community.
    I'm a loyal WoW player and I don't feel betrayed.

    Derp.
    Quote Originally Posted by Slowpoke is a Gamer View Post
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  8. #588
    Scarab Lord Puupi's Avatar
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    Blizzard has actually sent me a free 7 day subscription a week ago. I have been inactive for about 6 months. I bet they did this to other inactives aswell.... a way to clean up the numbers right before November?
    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." - H. L. Mencken

  9. #589
    Quote Originally Posted by Thetruth1400 View Post
    I think 5.4 is going to really fudge the numbers so they don't seem as extreme as they really are. I expect Q3 numbers to be down about 700,000, or 7 Million subs total left.

    I think that real number though, after 5.4 is done for a bunch of people since they've resubbed and are, for all intents and purposes, finished with 5.4 is closer to 6.5 million.

    I expect a continued decline through Q4, which doesn't have a new expansion release to prop sales up like past years. In all honesty, I expect the next expansion to launch with around 5.5 million to 6.5 million subs tops.
    How on earth does new content for an mmo "fudge" the numbers? I love it. Blizzard does a promotion: they fudged the numbers. Blizzard puts something on sale: they fudged the numbers. And now they can't even release new content without being accused of the same thing. Give me a fucking break. All that matters to shareholders is that Blizzard is able to keep its products sustainable and profitable and they don't give a fuck about the internal politics of this community. Look I get it. You people hate that Wow is still going and Blizzard hasn't fallen to its knees in financial ruin but heres the thing: as long as there are more than 500k subscribers Wow isn't going anywhere. Get over it.

  10. #590
    Immortal Destil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Puupi View Post
    Blizzard has actually sent me a free 7 day subscription a week ago. I have been inactive for about 6 months. I bet they did this to other inactives aswell.... a way to clean up the numbers right before November?
    Nah. They've been doing that for a while I think.

    I might be wrong of course but I remember seeing threads from months back of people getting these offers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xanzul View Post
    How on earth does new content for an mmo "fudge" the numbers? I love it. Blizzard does a promotion: they fudged the numbers. Blizzard puts something on sale: they fudged the numbers. And now they can't even release new content without being accused of the same thing. Give me a fucking break. All that matters to shareholders is that Blizzard is able to keep its products sustainable and profitable and they don't give a fuck about the internal politics of this community. Look I get it. You people hate that Wow is still going and Blizzard hasn't fallen to its knees in financial ruin but heres the thing: as long as there are more than 500k subscribers Wow isn't going anywhere. Get over it.
    Tbh, I don't personally give a fuck about sub numbers, but I'll never actually understand why everyone acts like Blizzard is either a villain or a hero (specifically villain in this case).

    Jesus. They're a company, not the freaking Empire from Star Wars. They're run by human beings. Stop acting like they're deities that if they do a single thing you don't like you have to be up their ass about everything from then on.

    Everyone's welcome to their own opinions/criticisms, but be logical for Christ's sake.
    Quote Originally Posted by Slowpoke is a Gamer View Post
    Transorcers, Warlords in disguise.
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  11. #591
    The active sub count I'll predict will be down between 400,000 to around 700,000. It will be far greater in Q4 however where the true "panic button" will start getting slammed.

    Remember, a lower drop doesn't indicate 'stability', unless the number is going up it is an alarm. Think of your bank account, if every month your savings account kept dropping, but it occasionally didn't change at all, is that worth being excited about?

  12. #592
    Quote Originally Posted by Puupi View Post
    Blizzard has actually sent me a free 7 day subscription a week ago. I have been inactive for about 6 months. I bet they did this to other inactives aswell.... a way to clean up the numbers right before November?
    Q3 ended over a month ago and you need to purchase a subscription to be counted as a sub so this offer will make no difference to Q3 numbers although it might encourage players to resubscribe for Q4.

  13. #593
    Quote Originally Posted by Glorious Leader View Post
    The developers tend to exacerbate this in a number of ways.
    Absolutely not. All the developers do is try to provide content for a multitude of play styles. it is the players who divide the community. I know this is a difficult concept for you people to grasp but Blizzard has always taken a hands off approach with the Wow community. It is for us to build up or tear it down and it is a cop out to try to blame a bad community on anything but the very people who are behaving badly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Infinitus View Post
    That's because game developers think that they can shoe horn everyone into a on-size-fits-all MMO and not understanding why they fail. Greed is king in the genre now days and quality suffers from it.
    What on earth are you talking about? For one thing what does greed have to do with this? Blizzard is a company that exists to make a profit. That isn't greed. Grow up. As far as trying to shoehorn people, just no. It is mind boggling that you can make a claim like that literally weeks after Blizzard adds a 4th raid difficulty. The quality of Wow is fine. It is the quality of players who are the problem. People like you do nothing but whine incessantly about Wow and refuse to let the game go and move on and would rather infect this community with as much negativity and vitriol as possible.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ringpriest View Post
    I'm usually completely wrong on guessing sub gains/losses, but I voted "Other" because I'm predicting a mild gain.

    It's my guess/opinion that a lot of the losses MoP has been seeing post-launch were actually delayed reactions to the awfulness that was Cataclysm. Blizz did everything they could to pad sub numbers during Cata, and I think it took a long time for the all the people for whom Cata killed the game, or maybe for whom MoP just wasn't quite enough (for whatever reason) to drop out. But that should have all shaken out of the system by now, and MoP is presumably losing or keeping subs solely on its own merits. 5.4 has clearly been popular, so I'm going to predict a slight gain in subs.
    Paying accounts are paying accounts regardless of who they are, where they live, how many accounts they have, why they play, how often they play or if they even log in at all. There is no padding going on here. Again shareholders don't give a fuck about the politics of this community.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zurtle View Post
    I don't think it really has anything to do with them being happy about the actual sub loss or wanting Blizzard to fail.

    I think it's more about a joy and hilarity that is gained from watching a certain group of rabid Blizzard defenders (that defend blizzard no matter what) scramble to make a new defense as to why Blizzard is not failing or this is not the downfall of Blizzard or insert X defense. Your response is actually one of the responses they get excited over.


    Personally, I hope for a huge sub loss, because I don't think that Blizzard is trying hard enough. They produce far too little content for charging $15 bucks a month. The original reason they charged this much was a claim of server costs + adding content. Server costs are extremely low now so that excuse doesn't fly. They rarely put out content, as they spend most of their money developing expansions and other games. To me this is a rip off to the consumer and I hope it hits Blizzard where it hurts most, right in the wallet.

    I mean consider just a moment the over $50 million dollars they are bringing in off subs each month. Most blockbuster games don't cost $50 million to produce. So EVERY single month, they are bringing in more than most companies use to produce an entire blockbuster game. And how much content do we get from this? Timeless isle? Awesome job.
    Blizzard defenders? Give it a fucking rest. Of course fans of a game are going to defend the state of the game when it is in a state they like. They have every right to defend design decisions that make the game enjoyable for them. This is a fansite. Calling people "defenders" or fanboys is childish and ignorant and does nothing but make it that much harder for people with legitimate complaints about the game to be heard.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dope_danny View Post
    I could honestly see it being the biggest loss yet purely because the time between 5.2 and 5.4 was pretty much "come back, get korkron gear!" for people who unsubbed but those still subbed at the time had no reason to play if they were casual players and i imagine the drought of content pushed a lot away before 5.4 hit.
    If it had been 6 months of 5.3 then you might have had a point. By the time that patch released Tot was only around 3 months old. Prior to Mop we weren't getting patches every 3 months. In fact much of 5.2 content was still fresh for many players at that point. If you logged in just to do a weekly and logged out for another week that was your problem. Many other people had no problem finding other things to do.

  14. #594
    Mechagnome
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    I think Q4 will be + -0
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  15. #595
    Quote Originally Posted by prwraith View Post
    I like wow but I'm predicting a sub drop.

    And I'm hoping the trend continues. Innovation via actual competition for the top spot needs to be reintroduced.
    1. Blizzard flat out said they expect subscription losses to continue so there isn't much to predict here.
    2. Blizzard isn't known for innovation, they are known for improving on others innovations. It is the other developers who need to step it up, not Blizzard.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Glorious Leader View Post
    By their own admission mists or any expansion cannot be revolutionary. Mists has been regressive at best, the "content" is basically the same shit but it takes twice as long to do. The "content" is really just raids. On the other hand I could list PLENTY of things to do in cataclysm but nobody did them without any gear apparently and subsequently that wasn't considered content. Standards seem to change depending on the flavor of the expansion I guess.
    So Blizzard added nothing new to Mop? Nothing like pet battles and scenarios (and I don't care if you hate them that doesn't make that content cease to exist)? Maybe your problem is you don't seem to understand there is more to the game than just raiding.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jbombard View Post
    Well based on how subs have been trending I think it is squarely in the 500,000 - 1 million range. If it flattens off a bit it will end up closer to 500,000 if it continues full speed closer to 1 million.

    Even though I am not currently playing anymore I hope it starts to level off soon. If it continues as is we are start getting out of encouraging competition area and into the unable to continue to provide content at the same pace area. If it starts to decelerate now maybe things will completely level off at around 4 million subs a couple years from now.

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    I think they have been playing a bit of trial and error since the big sub crash of Cataclysm. LFR only seemed to postpone things for a short time and then the rapid decline in subs has continued on as usual. Hopefully they find the right formula soon.
    There is no "right formula" to prevent subscription loss in an aging mmo. Name one single mmo who has managed to perpetually increase subscriptions despite age. I won't hold my breath.

  16. #596
    Mechagnome Zephre's Avatar
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    500k-1m is the most realistic thing to expect. If i recall correctly the devil incarnate bobby kotick said he'd devour your cats and sell your family members as slaves. On a more serious note they fully expect themselves to lose more subscribers so i can't see it being any different.

  17. #597
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    Quote Originally Posted by dd614 View Post
    I voted for 500k-1million sub loss because I don't see Flex providing enough incentive to gain players back.

    And Blizzard's response will be more scenarios, more LFR, more welfare rewards, more Timeless Isle-style garbage, more hand-holding, more pet battles and more of what ruined WoW for so many loyal WoW players. People need to realize this game isn't what it used to be and the devs have been very clear that they're striving for a totally different audience than what built their MMO up to 11-12 million people during mid-WotLK. I suppose it's up to us now if we want to continue being taken for granted while the game goes in a direction more suited to the Call of Duty community.
    I agree with this post.
    No child these days ever gets to hear those all-important, character building words: "You lost, Bobby! You lost, you're a loser, Bobby!" They miss out on that. You know what they tell a kid who lost these days? "You were the last winner." A lot of these kids never get to hear the truth about themselves until they're in their twenties. When their boss calls them in and says "Bobby, clean the shit out of your desk and get the fuck out of here, you're a loser."

  18. #598
    Quote Originally Posted by Voidmaster View Post
    Thinking that the sub loss of Q3 will be more extreme than most people think it will be. I won't be surprised if it's more than a million, why?
    - Many people are annoyed by the fact that you can either play on a dead realm or on a realm with a 1+ hour login queue.
    - Many people are annoyed by the fact that virtual realms are rolling out so terribly slow.
    - ToT was a disappointment for a lot of people after all the hype.
    - SoO was an even bigger disappointment, another raid with 60% refurbished scenery and uninspiring trash / old boss mechanics.
    - some good games game out in Q3 that will have pulled people away from playing wow.

    I think it's all for the better though, Blizzard needs this wake-up call. Slowly losing their monopoly might mean they start innovating and making awesome content like in the old times again instead of endlessly milking their customers with 5-minute-made storemounts and refurbished content (scenery etc).
    Can you people please give the whining over dead realms a rest now? Blizzard has significantly increased the pace of deploying connected realms and once those realms are in a better situation population wise, more people will be more willing to take the free character migrations off of high pop realms with long queue times. Blizzard isn't ignoring the issue but it isn't something that can be solved instantly with the flick of a switch. As far as everything else goes, pure opinion. The last two raids may be a disappointment to you but they have been very well received by many others. In fact I have seen people who have been scathingly critical of raiding in Wow over the past few years do nothing but gush over how these last two tiers turned out. If you think Blizzard is "milking" you, stop giving them money. Problem solved.

  19. #599
    Pandaren Monk vep's Avatar
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    I say six hundred billion subscriptions lost....
    And even though it's reached new heights, I rather like the restless nights. It makes me wonder, makes me think there's more to this, I'm on the brink. It's not the fear of what's beyond, it's just that I might not respond! I have an interest, almost craving, would I like to get to far in?!

  20. #600
    Quote Originally Posted by xanzul View Post
    2. Blizzard isn't known for innovation, they are known for improving on others innovations. It is the other developers who need to step it up, not Blizzard.
    Right?? So lemme get this straight? Blizzard should not step it up to save their game but other developers should so they can copy them in order to save their game? That is possibly the most ridiculous thing I have ever read on these forums.

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