Poll: What is your Sub Loss Prediction?

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  1. #701
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    How vague! "The investors site"?

    Conveniently, you gave no link.

    If I look at investor.activision.com, they only have the Q2 numbers (and earlier), not the Q3 numbers.
    according to my secret access to the activision database, they're down to 1.5 million subs EU + US

  2. #702
    Quote Originally Posted by Slowpoke is a Gamer View Post
    It's pretty clear that the subs are finally dropping to a point where it's having a negative impact on the game (tank shortages)
    How do sub losses cause a tank shortage? Do the tanks have to quit first?
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "The bit about hardcore players not always caring about the long term interests of the game is spot on." -- Ghostcrawler
    "Do you want a game with no casuals so about 500 players?"

  3. #703
    Deleted
    If there is even a sub loss. Dont be so definitive. You'll just look silly if it's a sub gain. But I have gone with 100-500k. I really dont feel it has dropped too much.

  4. #704
    Pit Lord goblingirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tesk View Post
    If there is even a sub loss. Dont be so definitive. You'll just look silly if it's a sub gain. But I have gone with 100-500k. I really dont feel it has dropped too much.
    Clearly you do not play on my server...

  5. #705
    Well, virtual realms are proof enough that they *expected* losses (long-term, not this quarter), so I guess losses are more likely than gains.

  6. #706
    Legendary! Deficineiron's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PrivateSmiley View Post
    OFF TOPIC: Why does everyone always say that blizzard was rolled into Activision? For pete's sake, it was Activision that was bought and merged into Blizzard.
    reverse merger. activision bought blizzard from vivendi with stock, but because they paid vivendi with a majority f ownership of the combined companies, this is referred to as a reverse merger. In my experience where you see the 'seller' of assets (vivendi here) walk away with outright majority ownership of the publicly traded entity, its usually with otcbb shells as a short-cut to get exchange listing, rather than two real entities with actual assets, revenue, etc.. maybe I trade the wrong class of things, though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by goblingirl View Post
    Yeah I think these people are trolling... it is illegal to give insider information to anyone before the results are announced. Doing so could influence the market today, giving people a chance to buy or dump stock before the general investing public is informed. I would be completely surprised if A/B released anything to anyone, even by accident. There are fines involved with such behavior AT THE LEAST.
    no idea on this stock today nor earnings, but leaks, accidental posting, embargo breaks, html invisible-=visible coding errors, etc., happen, and earnings often are public before the co. releases them. Google had a fairly high-profile example of this happen to them earlier this year. Don't recall seeing them be fined yet. I would say I run into an example of some type of accidental release (usually within 24 hours of scheduled release) at least once a month. Often its by third party error where third party has access to the release and doesn't handle it right, puts somewhere on a public searchable website, etc.

    As an aside, there are news trawler programs that specifically will go searching for erroneous early postings of eps docs for just this reason. a basic example of how one might do this is just get the right text string atvi always uses in their pre-amble on their release pr's that doesn't pull non-eps pr releases , make it right for q3 13, and quote search it on google. odds are very very low against it ever happening of course, but some search algos are finding all these embargo'ed docs on obscure website directories.


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    Quote Originally Posted by LeperHerring View Post
    What? Why would you not look at it? Investor sites are for the public, not just those currently holding the company's shares.
    I don't have to buy shares and wait for t+3 to go look at this? no way, ur kidding!
    Last edited by Deficineiron; 2013-11-06 at 04:08 PM.
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  7. #707
    Pit Lord goblingirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yindoo View Post
    Its not like there are 600servers (not counting asia).

    Most "dead" servers have been dead since MoP, early MoP and not with the most recent sub loses (or maybe even gains).
    Mine was interesting in that once, we were High pop - during LK we had a super busy server. We lost a lot of players during Cata but as of February 2013, we still had quite a lot of raiding guilds, including 25 man raiding guilds.

    Between February and May, many of those guilds did two things:

    1) transferred to new servers (recruitment problems with the shrinking realm pop)
    2) were led by people who decided to quit the game, and the newly orphaned players transferred to higher pop realms to find new raiding guilds, or quit (I knew people of each type)

    The half price server transfers in early summer killed what was left of the server. People who had been hesitating due to cost moved off in droves. Others who still couldn't afford to move or didn't want to give Blizzard any more money have quit because there's nobody for them to play with. To my knowledge there are only two 10 man raiding guilds left. At this point, 95% of my logged-in friends list in the evening is BattleTag friends on other servers, the locals in the list are gone/unsubbed. I spend almost all my time in cross realm groups.

    From what used to be a High pop server during Classic through LK, and fell to Med/Hi during Cata, it is now very Low. It is not uncommon to only see 2-3 people in the Shrine in the evening. It's honestly kind of shocking that everyone is gone.

    I think maybe if I had always been on a low pop server, it would not feel as shocking. But I've been playing since release day in 2004 and spent a lot of time on High pop servers with queues, so this desertion feels like a big deal.

  8. #708
    2 hours left for the call, right?

  9. #709
    Immortal SL1200's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xlightning View Post
    2 hours left for the call, right?
    I thought it was 1:30 eastern time. Blizzard likes to use pacific, most other businesses go by eastern time.

  10. #710
    Quote Originally Posted by xlightning View Post
    2 hours left for the call, right?
    Yep.

    Personally, I'll be very surprised if it's under half a million lost. I'd venture to say it's actually closer to over a million lost, but 5.4 coming out less than a week before the end of their cutoff date is going to pad those numbers by those people that return for a month, beat the content, then quit again. Q4 is going to hurt since they'll have no new content, but Christmas sales will pad that a bit as well. Q1 of 2014 is where the real deal shows. They're going to have nothing new except maybe a minor content patch to carry them through. That's when I expect to see WoW dip down to the 5 million subs range of characters.

  11. #711
    Why do people post threads like this for a game they clearly despise/want it to die?

  12. #712
    Banned But I Hate You All's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twh View Post
    Why do people post threads like this for a game they clearly despise/want it to die?

    Why do people assume if you say the subs will drop you clearly despise/want it to die?

  13. #713
    Quote Originally Posted by twh View Post
    Why do people post threads like this for a game they clearly despise/want it to die?
    Battered wives syndrome.

  14. #714
    Quote Originally Posted by twh View Post
    Why do people post threads like this for a game they clearly despise/want it to die?
    They come for the bonfires and marshmallows

    The server merges reflect the sub loss. NA forums look eerily like the Korea forums did when they started merging a couple years ago with players begging and pleading for their server to be merged. Korea is down to 9 servers now from 34 during T15.
    Did you think we had forgotten? Did you think we had forgiven?

  15. #715
    Quote Originally Posted by twh View Post
    Why do people post threads like this for a game they clearly despise/want it to die?
    I don't want the game to die but in a way i think Blizzard kinda deserves the sub losses they are having every quarter. And it's just kinda fun to have an update on how they are doing.

  16. #716
    Quote Originally Posted by xlightning View Post
    I don't want the game to die but in a way i think Blizzard kinda deserves the sub losses they are having every quarter. And it's just kinda fun to have an update on how they are doing.
    I guess I see your point. It just seems like a lot of these threads contain people that no longer play it and hate the game. maybe that's my perception. If that's the reality...why even post?

  17. #717
    Quote Originally Posted by twh View Post
    I guess I see your point. It just seems like a lot of these threads contain people that no longer play it and hate the game. maybe that's my perception. If that's the reality...why even post?
    Many people played this game for 5+ years, 5+ years is a huge part of your life time, specially if you are under 30.

    I have been playing for almost 6 years. Since last year i only pay like half of the months in a year. I check MMO-Champion everyday to see when it's worth to come back. Normally it's on major patches.

  18. #718
    I predict an increase of 10 million subs! I love you Blizzard.

  19. #719
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Morbownz View Post
    I predict an increase of 10 million subs! I love you Blizzard.
    i got ur back bro... lets hold the flag till da end !

    wow = best online game (nomatter how they rape it

  20. #720
    Pit Lord goblingirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SL1200 View Post
    I thought it was 1:30 eastern time. Blizzard likes to use pacific, most other businesses go by eastern time.
    The call is at 1:30 PST / 4:30 EST, after the stock market closes. Earnings calls never take place during trading floor hours.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thetruth1400 View Post
    Yep.

    Personally, I'll be very surprised if it's under half a million lost. I'd venture to say it's actually closer to over a million lost, but 5.4 coming out less than a week before the end of their cutoff date is going to pad those numbers by those people that return for a month, beat the content, then quit again. Q4 is going to hurt since they'll have no new content, but Christmas sales will pad that a bit as well. Q1 of 2014 is where the real deal shows. They're going to have nothing new except maybe a minor content patch to carry them through. That's when I expect to see WoW dip down to the 5 million subs range of characters.
    The other thing that could help them 4th quarter is giving away a good anniversary gift at the end of November. You have to pay for a month to log in and get it. It'd have to be something awesome like the enchanted fey drake, though, not just a "logged in during the anniversary" achieve, to get people to pony up.

    ETA: I also had forgotten this, but there's a new greench mini pet in the pet journal that I assume will either be a gift or a drop from the greench event at Winter Veil. I don't know that a mini pet would be enough to encourage someone to resub for a month tho.
    Last edited by goblingirl; 2013-11-06 at 08:30 PM.

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