View Poll Results: What is your Sub Loss Prediction?

Voters
1318. You may not vote on this poll
  • 0-100k Sub Loss

    225 17.07%
  • 100k - 500k Sub Loss

    446 33.84%
  • 500k - 1M Sub Loss

    320 24.28%
  • Greater than 1 Million Sub Loss

    236 17.91%
  • Other

    91 6.90%
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  1. #701
    Depends on what type of information it is.
    ♦ Scepticist ♦ Critic ♦ INTJ

  2. #702
    5.4 will soften the blow but a subscriber loss is inevitable. I expect at least 800K-1M. They'll likely keep the number above 7M if they lost 800K. Under 7M would cause controversy.
    Last edited by Peso; 2013-11-06 at 03:20 PM.

  3. #703
    Quote Originally Posted by Anarchor View Post
    Depends on what type of information it is.
    "Material Information", meaning any information that can affect the stock price. WoW active account numbers certainly qualify.

    Are you guys look at the General forum thread where someone wrote 1.3 million? He linked to the signup page for the call, which hasn't occurred yet. Foolish of you to think the quote was real.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler

  4. #704
    The Insane Slowpoke is a Gamer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peso View Post
    5.4 will soften the blow but a subscriber loss is inevitable. I expect at least 800K-1M. They'll likely keep the number above 7M if they lost 800K. Under 6M would cause controversy.
    I'm guessing we'll be 7-7.2M at this point. It's pretty clear that the subs are finally dropping to a point where it's having a negative impact on the game (tank shortages) so expect to see a lot of talk about easing that impact on Friday.
    Unsubscribed as of 03/10/2014.

    If you dislike where WoW is headed in your mind, quit. Really. Sitting around complaining about "promises" that may or may not have been made isn't doing anything to help your cause. It's just making you look more and more like the constantly complaining and perpetually offended.

  5. #705
    Quote Originally Posted by swagster View Post
    Why do you even look the investor's site if you're not an investor?
    What? Why would you not look at it? Investor sites are for the public, not just those currently holding the company's shares.

  6. #706
    Why the fuck does anyone care.

  7. #707
    Quote Originally Posted by Slowpoke is a Gamer View Post
    I'm guessing we'll be 7-7.2M at this point. It's pretty clear that the subs are finally dropping to a point where it's having a negative impact on the game (tank shortages) so expect to see a lot of talk about easing that impact on Friday.
    Yeah. I'm waiting for them to nerf LFR to the point where it can be tanked by 1.

  8. #708
    Quote Originally Posted by mistahwilshire View Post
    Why the fuck does anyone care.
    Because what happens to the game is strongly linked to the subscriber numbers.

  9. #709
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    How vague! "The investors site"?

    Conveniently, you gave no link.

    If I look at investor.activision.com, they only have the Q2 numbers (and earlier), not the Q3 numbers.
    according to my secret access to the activision database, they're down to 1.5 million subs EU + US

  10. #710
    Quote Originally Posted by Slowpoke is a Gamer View Post
    It's pretty clear that the subs are finally dropping to a point where it's having a negative impact on the game (tank shortages)
    How do sub losses cause a tank shortage? Do the tanks have to quit first?
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler

  11. #711
    Bloodsail Admiral Tesk's Avatar
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    If there is even a sub loss. Dont be so definitive. You'll just look silly if it's a sub gain. But I have gone with 100-500k. I really dont feel it has dropped too much.
    And Already The World Looks A Little Less Bright.....

  12. #712
    Quote Originally Posted by Tesk View Post
    If there is even a sub loss. Dont be so definitive. You'll just look silly if it's a sub gain. But I have gone with 100-500k. I really dont feel it has dropped too much.
    Clearly you do not play on my server...

  13. #713
    Herald of the Titans
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    Well, virtual realms are proof enough that they *expected* losses (long-term, not this quarter), so I guess losses are more likely than gains.

  14. #714
    Quote Originally Posted by goblingirl View Post
    Clearly you do not play on my server...
    Its not like there are 600servers (not counting asia).

    Most "dead" servers have been dead since MoP, early MoP and not with the most recent sub loses (or maybe even gains).
    Quote Originally Posted by Larynx View Post
    For more overused and misunderstood terminology in MMOs, see: Pay to Win, Casual, Hardcore, Carrot on a Stick, Ganking, Trolling

  15. #715
    Quote Originally Posted by PrivateSmiley View Post
    OFF TOPIC: Why does everyone always say that blizzard was rolled into Activision? For pete's sake, it was Activision that was bought and merged into Blizzard.
    reverse merger. activision bought blizzard from vivendi with stock, but because they paid vivendi with a majority f ownership of the combined companies, this is referred to as a reverse merger. In my experience where you see the 'seller' of assets (vivendi here) walk away with outright majority ownership of the publicly traded entity, its usually with otcbb shells as a short-cut to get exchange listing, rather than two real entities with actual assets, revenue, etc.. maybe I trade the wrong class of things, though.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by goblingirl View Post
    Yeah I think these people are trolling... it is illegal to give insider information to anyone before the results are announced. Doing so could influence the market today, giving people a chance to buy or dump stock before the general investing public is informed. I would be completely surprised if A/B released anything to anyone, even by accident. There are fines involved with such behavior AT THE LEAST.
    no idea on this stock today nor earnings, but leaks, accidental posting, embargo breaks, html invisible-=visible coding errors, etc., happen, and earnings often are public before the co. releases them. Google had a fairly high-profile example of this happen to them earlier this year. Don't recall seeing them be fined yet. I would say I run into an example of some type of accidental release (usually within 24 hours of scheduled release) at least once a month. Often its by third party error where third party has access to the release and doesn't handle it right, puts somewhere on a public searchable website, etc.

    As an aside, there are news trawler programs that specifically will go searching for erroneous early postings of eps docs for just this reason. a basic example of how one might do this is just get the right text string atvi always uses in their pre-amble on their release pr's that doesn't pull non-eps pr releases , make it right for q3 13, and quote search it on google. odds are very very low against it ever happening of course, but some search algos are finding all these embargo'ed docs on obscure website directories.


    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by LeperHerring View Post
    What? Why would you not look at it? Investor sites are for the public, not just those currently holding the company's shares.
    I don't have to buy shares and wait for t+3 to go look at this? no way, ur kidding!
    Last edited by Deficineiron; 2013-11-06 at 04:08 PM.
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  16. #716
    Quote Originally Posted by Yindoo View Post
    Its not like there are 600servers (not counting asia).

    Most "dead" servers have been dead since MoP, early MoP and not with the most recent sub loses (or maybe even gains).
    Mine was interesting in that once, we were High pop - during LK we had a super busy server. We lost a lot of players during Cata but as of February 2013, we still had quite a lot of raiding guilds, including 25 man raiding guilds.

    Between February and May, many of those guilds did two things:

    1) transferred to new servers (recruitment problems with the shrinking realm pop)
    2) were led by people who decided to quit the game, and the newly orphaned players transferred to higher pop realms to find new raiding guilds, or quit (I knew people of each type)

    The half price server transfers in early summer killed what was left of the server. People who had been hesitating due to cost moved off in droves. Others who still couldn't afford to move or didn't want to give Blizzard any more money have quit because there's nobody for them to play with. To my knowledge there are only two 10 man raiding guilds left. At this point, 95% of my logged-in friends list in the evening is BattleTag friends on other servers, the locals in the list are gone/unsubbed. I spend almost all my time in cross realm groups.

    From what used to be a High pop server during Classic through LK, and fell to Med/Hi during Cata, it is now very Low. It is not uncommon to only see 2-3 people in the Shrine in the evening. It's honestly kind of shocking that everyone is gone.

    I think maybe if I had always been on a low pop server, it would not feel as shocking. But I've been playing since release day in 2004 and spent a lot of time on High pop servers with queues, so this desertion feels like a big deal.

  17. #717
    Bloodsail Admiral xlightning's Avatar
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    2 hours left for the call, right?

  18. #718
    Herald of the Titans SL1200's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xlightning View Post
    2 hours left for the call, right?
    I thought it was 1:30 eastern time. Blizzard likes to use pacific, most other businesses go by eastern time.

  19. #719
    Quote Originally Posted by xlightning View Post
    2 hours left for the call, right?
    Yep.

    Personally, I'll be very surprised if it's under half a million lost. I'd venture to say it's actually closer to over a million lost, but 5.4 coming out less than a week before the end of their cutoff date is going to pad those numbers by those people that return for a month, beat the content, then quit again. Q4 is going to hurt since they'll have no new content, but Christmas sales will pad that a bit as well. Q1 of 2014 is where the real deal shows. They're going to have nothing new except maybe a minor content patch to carry them through. That's when I expect to see WoW dip down to the 5 million subs range of characters.

  20. #720
    Why do people post threads like this for a game they clearly despise/want it to die?

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