View Poll Results: What is your Sub Loss Prediction?

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  • 0-100k Sub Loss

    225 17.07%
  • 100k - 500k Sub Loss

    446 33.84%
  • 500k - 1M Sub Loss

    320 24.28%
  • Greater than 1 Million Sub Loss

    236 17.91%
  • Other

    91 6.90%
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  1. #801
    Quote Originally Posted by Abysal View Post
    I'm not sure what's so terrible about 181m. I just looked Q3 09/10/11. They were 262m, 282m, and 274m and this was because when the game was 10m-12m subs.

    They've lost 35% of their subs and 33% of their revenue from subs in those comparisons. Not sure what the big deal is? The only reason 2012's number was so high is because it included CoD elite which is now free.

    ----

    WoW doesn't really need to have huge profit margins. WoW is a major asset that gives Activision-Blizzard liquidity. So long as it doesn't turn from asset to liability it doesn't really matter if the net revenues are that high.
    the big deal, so to speak, is that the cost of operating the game has some fixed elements, such as bandwidth and staffing, and there are only so many savings they are able to realize as a benefit of losing western subs. So instead of 300m in revenue with say 60-70k operating costs + development costs, you are looking at a much lower profit.

    I realize it may not be a big deal to you or others, but it is certainly a big deal to Kotick, Morhaime, etc (ever look at morhaime's incentive package?).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    The role that investors(shareholders) play in the day to day running of ATVI is vastly over estimated on these forums, it will be the board of ATVI that makes any decisions on the future of WOW and Blizzard.

    - - - Updated - - -



    What position are they going to regain?
    Given the new share structure, it will more or less be Kotick who makes any decisions.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    The difference here is that this dude bought masses of ATVI stock at 12 and 13 dollars a few years back.

    Enjoy your games, I'll profit both ways anyway.
    are you even beating real inflation at this rate, after taxes?
    Authors I have enjoyed enough to mention here: JRR Tolkein, Poul Anderson,Jack Vance, Glen Cook, Brian Stableford, MAR Barker, Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle, John Steakley, Joe Abercrombie, Robert Silverberg, the norse sagas, CJ Cherryh, PG Wodehouse, Clark Ashton Smith, Alastair Reynolds, Cordwainer Smith, LE Modesitt, L. Sprague de Camp & Fletcher Pratt, Agatha Christie, Steven Erikson & Ian Esslemont, Stephen R Donaldon, and recently Jack L Chalker.

  2. #802
    I am Murloc! Firebert's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deficineiron View Post
    are you even beating real inflation at this rate, after taxes?
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    The difference here is that this dude bought masses of ATVI stock at 12 and 13 dollars a few years back.
    Quote Originally Posted by cityguy193 View Post
    its trading at 16.90 atm.
    So, between a 30% and 40% increase in trading price, which means unless he bought the ATVI stock between 1999 to 2003, he's definitely made a profit after inflation.
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  3. #803
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peso View Post
    Subscription numbers are really random look at the past 2 years. It's only a prediction.
    I don't think random is a good way to describe a very real downward trend.

  4. #804
    Quote Originally Posted by Firebert View Post
    So, between a 30% and 40% increase in trading price, which means unless he bought the ATVI stock between 1999 to 2003, he's definitely made a profit after inflation.
    1) taxes
    2) say he bot at 12.5 (the average of his prices) - he is up 3.60? this is less than 30% over a 'few' (e.g. more than 2) years, and once again, in the real world, most of us pay taxes.
    3) so after taxes, depending on where he is, he might up be 6% annuallized? If you live somewhere REAL inflation (not what some government says it is) is less than 6%, let me know where.
    Authors I have enjoyed enough to mention here: JRR Tolkein, Poul Anderson,Jack Vance, Glen Cook, Brian Stableford, MAR Barker, Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle, John Steakley, Joe Abercrombie, Robert Silverberg, the norse sagas, CJ Cherryh, PG Wodehouse, Clark Ashton Smith, Alastair Reynolds, Cordwainer Smith, LE Modesitt, L. Sprague de Camp & Fletcher Pratt, Agatha Christie, Steven Erikson & Ian Esslemont, Stephen R Donaldon, and recently Jack L Chalker.

  5. #805
    Quote Originally Posted by Deficineiron View Post
    the big deal, so to speak, is that the cost of operating the game has some fixed elements, such as bandwidth and staffing, and there are only so many savings they are able to realize as a benefit of losing western subs. So instead of 300m in revenue with say 60-70k operating costs + development costs, you are looking at a much lower profit.

    I realize it may not be a big deal to you or others, but it is certainly a big deal to Kotick, Morhaime, etc (ever look at morhaime's incentive package?).
    WoW always had a extremely profit margin. It seems to only cost about $4 - 5 million a month to run WoW, which includes salary, hardware support and customer service.

    The game maker said it has spent only $200m (~ £110.24m) on upkeep since the game launched in 2004. That $200m figure apparently includes payroll for the entire staff, hardware support, and customer service.
    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/09...t_upkeep_200m/

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    Quote Originally Posted by Deficineiron View Post
    1) taxes
    2) say he bot at 12.5 (the average of his prices) - he is up 3.60? this is less than 30% over a 'few' (e.g. more than 2) years, and once again, in the real world, most of us pay taxes.
    3) so after taxes, depending on where he is, he might up be 6% annuallized? If you live somewhere REAL inflation (not what some government says it is) is less than 6%, let me know where.
    This is besides the point, because ATVI has beat or is on par with the S&P 500 during the last 2 years. Which is considered good.

  6. #806
    I am Murloc! Firebert's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deficineiron View Post
    2) say he bot at 12.5 (the average of his prices) - he is up 3.60? this is less than 30% over a 'few' (e.g. more than 2) years, and once again, in the real world, most of us pay taxes.
    1690/1250 is a 35.2% increase, that's most definitely more than 30%.
    Quote Originally Posted by Deficineiron View Post
    3) so after taxes, depending on where he is, he might up be 6% annuallized? If you live somewhere REAL inflation (not what some government says it is) is less than 6%, let me know where.
    No True Scotsman Fallacy.
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  7. #807
    Quote Originally Posted by Sharuko View Post
    WoW always had a extremely profit margin. It seems to only cost about $4 - 5 million a month to run WoW, which includes salary, hardware support and customer service.



    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/09...t_upkeep_200m/

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    This is besides the point, because ATVI has beat or is on par with the S&P 500 during the last 2 years. Which is considered good.
    1) in the past have come up with about 60-70m/qtr cost of operating the game, which must be almost entirely bandwidth. no time to go drag out old 10q's now, but in the past atvi was much friendlier with their revenue categories. its there.
    2) why would you think matching the spx is good? Who considers this good? if spx is down for the year and atvi is down less, does that mean I did good losing money on atvi? Is benbos a pension fund or a very large hedge fund, where an approx 6% or less annualized post-tax return is considered good, despite the inflation concern that is being ignored in this conversation by one party to it?
    Last edited by Deficineiron; 2013-11-07 at 02:58 AM.
    Authors I have enjoyed enough to mention here: JRR Tolkein, Poul Anderson,Jack Vance, Glen Cook, Brian Stableford, MAR Barker, Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle, John Steakley, Joe Abercrombie, Robert Silverberg, the norse sagas, CJ Cherryh, PG Wodehouse, Clark Ashton Smith, Alastair Reynolds, Cordwainer Smith, LE Modesitt, L. Sprague de Camp & Fletcher Pratt, Agatha Christie, Steven Erikson & Ian Esslemont, Stephen R Donaldon, and recently Jack L Chalker.

  8. #808
    Legendary! Anarch Son of Gods's Avatar
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    I guess they should get kinda worried that their active playerbase in the US and EU is only slightly bigger than GuildWars 2.
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  9. #809
    Quote Originally Posted by Firebert View Post
    1690/1250 is a 35.2% increase, that's most definitely more than 30%.

    No True Scotsman Fallacy.
    1) last trade on stock is 16.13. old prices help no one. also you need to annualize the return for a minimum of 3 years (a few, he says).
    2) I guess I should back up - do you know what inflation and taxes are, and how they relate to REAL rate of return for investments? I guess for simplicity we can keep things in dollars unless benbos wants to claim a forex gain also.
    Last edited by Deficineiron; 2013-11-07 at 03:04 AM.
    Authors I have enjoyed enough to mention here: JRR Tolkein, Poul Anderson,Jack Vance, Glen Cook, Brian Stableford, MAR Barker, Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle, John Steakley, Joe Abercrombie, Robert Silverberg, the norse sagas, CJ Cherryh, PG Wodehouse, Clark Ashton Smith, Alastair Reynolds, Cordwainer Smith, LE Modesitt, L. Sprague de Camp & Fletcher Pratt, Agatha Christie, Steven Erikson & Ian Esslemont, Stephen R Donaldon, and recently Jack L Chalker.

  10. #810
    I am Murloc! Firebert's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deficineiron View Post
    2) I guess I should back up - do you know what inflation and taxes are, and how they relate to REAL rate of return for investments?
    Inflation is the steady depreciation of the value of a currency over time (usually due to "fiscal easing", that is, printing money).

    I've ignored taxes because it can vary a lot. Hence why I originally said "he's made a profit after inflation", and not "he's made a profit after taxes and inflation". You also haven't countered my point that you will just flat out deny any figure I give for inflation.
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  11. #811
    Quote Originally Posted by Anarchor View Post
    I guess they should get kinda worried that their active playerbase in the US and EU is only slightly bigger than GuildWars 2.
    GW2 has an active player base of about 100k at the very best estimate. It isn't even in the same league. If anything they should be worried about FFXIV, which is significantly more popular. GW2 is in the same league as Rift and SWTOR. They are non-factors to WoW at the moment.
    Last edited by Sharuko; 2013-11-07 at 03:13 AM.

  12. #812
    Quote Originally Posted by Firebert View Post
    Inflation is the steady depreciation of the value of a currency over time (usually due to "fiscal easing", that is, printing money).

    I've ignored taxes because it can vary a lot. Hence why I originally said "he's made a profit after inflation", and not "he's made a profit after taxes and inflation". You also haven't countered my point that you will just flat out deny any figure I give for inflation.
    because you haven't given any figures for inflation. You have no idea what I think real inflation is for the US, where activision is located and where the primary listing for the stock is. If I understand your position, it is than rather than opine on real US inflation rates, you avoid the topic and as a diversion, accuse me of having prejudged your (non-existent) response negatively. You might be surprised if you actually answered. You can claim deflation as well, if you feel this way.
    Authors I have enjoyed enough to mention here: JRR Tolkein, Poul Anderson,Jack Vance, Glen Cook, Brian Stableford, MAR Barker, Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle, John Steakley, Joe Abercrombie, Robert Silverberg, the norse sagas, CJ Cherryh, PG Wodehouse, Clark Ashton Smith, Alastair Reynolds, Cordwainer Smith, LE Modesitt, L. Sprague de Camp & Fletcher Pratt, Agatha Christie, Steven Erikson & Ian Esslemont, Stephen R Donaldon, and recently Jack L Chalker.

  13. #813
    I am Murloc! Firebert's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deficineiron View Post
    because you haven't given any figures for inflation.
    http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i...ion+since+2003

    I don't need to.
    Quote Originally Posted by Deficineiron View Post
    You have no idea what I think real inflation is for the US
    Inflation figures aren't up for debate.
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  14. #814
    Quote Originally Posted by Firebert View Post
    http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i...ion+since+2003

    I don't need to.

    Inflation figures aren't up for debate.
    Ok, if you take BLS numbers as dogma, then we can agree to disagree. I think going further is far beyond the topic at hand.

    My contention is that benbos is unlikely to have matched or beat real US/dollarized inflation. much would depend on where he lives, geographically, if in the US. if he paid 13 a 'few' years ago, we are close to at least 3.5 years holding period. (the oct 11 cross of 13 would not be a 'few' years.)
    Last edited by Deficineiron; 2013-11-07 at 03:20 AM.
    Authors I have enjoyed enough to mention here: JRR Tolkein, Poul Anderson,Jack Vance, Glen Cook, Brian Stableford, MAR Barker, Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle, John Steakley, Joe Abercrombie, Robert Silverberg, the norse sagas, CJ Cherryh, PG Wodehouse, Clark Ashton Smith, Alastair Reynolds, Cordwainer Smith, LE Modesitt, L. Sprague de Camp & Fletcher Pratt, Agatha Christie, Steven Erikson & Ian Esslemont, Stephen R Donaldon, and recently Jack L Chalker.

  15. #815
    Quote Originally Posted by Deficineiron View Post
    1) in the past have come up with about 60-70m/qtr cost of operating the game, which must be almost entirely bandwidth.
    I would have thought it was dominated by customer support.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
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  16. #816
    Quote Originally Posted by Deficineiron View Post
    1) in the past have come up with about 60-70m/qtr cost of operating the game, which must be almost entirely bandwidth. no time to go drag out old 10q's now, but in the past atvi was much friendlier with their revenue categories. its there.
    Why would they lie about it being about $5 million a year?

    http://kotaku.com/5050300/how-much-h...ard-since-2004

    And I looked at previously quarterly reports and annual reports, and it doesn't seem to be any "friendlier".
    Last edited by Sharuko; 2013-11-07 at 03:45 AM.

  17. #817
    Quote Originally Posted by cityguy193 View Post
    Nope. That is your own opinion. You are entitled to it. But claiming that everyone else is wrong is purely stupid, especially by saying that no one else's long term memory surpasses a decade except your own.

    That makes you pretentious. I suspect its your own bias and ignorance that makes you unable to see anyone else's point of view.
    I'm not the one saying D3 was better than D2 in the following regards [insert list here]. I'm just disputing them.

    Sorry I hurt your feelings.

    Quote Originally Posted by hrugner View Post
    D3 had random maps? There were things that could spawn in the map, but the over all map wasn't random. A node was on or off. D2 had maps that were actually random. Sure, act 2's desert was pretty featureless and could be sidestepped; but that's the design for every D3 map.
    In Act I, you just follow the road and it will always take you to the next area. In Act III, you need to head north-east and until they modified the code in late LoD, there was only one "dead end" that could spawn and it was rare. The Durance at the end of Act III was really short until they expanded it to the point that it maxed out the map size. That is to say, the Durance was one big square. Act IV of course was tiny.

    You're really not remembering it right, if you'd played it a few times you could easily predict the optimal path to take in D2, at least as much if not more than is the case in D3.

    Quote Originally Posted by hrugner View Post
    I agree about the story. It's always been pretty limited. They tried to make the story more involved and it ended up being really really banal.
    Eh, I found it relatively enjoyable for what it's intended to be. I think Diablo has been more about setting a tone and an atmosphere and Diablo 1 was probably the best in that respect.

    Quote Originally Posted by hrugner View Post
    Maybe inferno was legitimately hard and I just played over powered classes? I rolled through with a mage and monk pretty early on in the game. Witchdoctor seemed to have a decent level of difficulty earlier though, I'll give you that.
    Yeah they were both broken at launch, so were DHs with SS. But even on my DH I remember having to shoot mobs from beyond the screen border or they'd rush me and I'd get 1shot haha. Then again I was playing with self-found gear only and refused to use SS because it was OP.

    They've nerfed it a lot since then because it really was brutal (especially after they fixed the broken abilities that trivialised it), but that's probably for the best.

    Quote Originally Posted by hrugner View Post
    With stats there were skill buffing stats pretty earlier on, and I vaguely remember a reflect build (paladin or barbarian? It's been awhile) that wanted vitality over other things. Anyway, yes, there wasn't much variety. In D3 they removed skill buffing stats which is a step toward less variety. I believe this changed later, Did D3 expand their viable stats yet? Regardless, we're discussing why people found it initially unappealing so that's pretty irrelevant.
    I can see that some people were really attached to the stat points, but really they were effectively predetermined so they were just given to you by default. I feel like stat points gave the illusion of variety not actual variety. I can see why some people might think it's a simplification *shrug*.

    Quote Originally Posted by hrugner View Post
    You could certainly play any of the one skill builds in D2 up till they introduced skill synergies. With D3 they went back to a pre synergy skill style which is pretty bad.
    Synergies were merely an attempt to make the lower abilities useful instead of a total waste. Before them you could put points into frost bolt but it was a waste, really you just wanted to save all your points until you unlocked frozen orb and just dump 20 points in that. Horrible. Synergies were like, okay so FB is crap but we'll make it buff FO... but then you're still just using all your skill points to just buff that one ability and you'll never actually cast FB once you have FO.

    At the start I guess they thought you'd just put your points wherever and it's not a big deal, but of course once you figure out how it works the gameplay totally devolves. Plus you couldn't respec back then which was a shocking decision.

    And remember all the junk abilities? Barb's +10% more stamina (not HP, your run bar)? LOL. I mean, you could make "exotic builds" using really underpowered and underutilised abilities, I spent a lot of time doing that but really the reason you could get away with that was because the game was so facerollicious you could beat it with anything. Remember those "pacifist" videos where a guy would try to beat the whole game without killing any monsters? Or the naked runs...

    People also underestimate the variety of builds you can make in D3. Sure "everybody" uses whatever is popular right now, but that was true in D2 as well. Personally I enjoyed randomly changing my skill bars around and using abilities most people don't. Actually that's one of my personal beefs with D3 - I wish they'd remove that stupid thing where changing your skills resets your NV stacks.

  18. #818
    Scarab Lord Mokoshne's Avatar
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    I don't think it will be as bad as everyones suggesting it will be.
    My weekly podcast can be downloaded here this week a man robs a gas station with a BOOMERANG? wtf

  19. #819
    Quote Originally Posted by Anarchor View Post
    I guess they should get kinda worried that their active playerbase in the US and EU is only slightly bigger than GuildWars 2.
    GW2 is free and brand new, so if you think about it it's shocking that it isn't way bigger than WoW.

    P.S. Where are you getting your information? I don't think GW2 publishes active players. Apparently only about 3 million boxes have even been sold. So if what you're saying is true, every single person who bought a box would have to be currently playing.

    P.P.S. WoW has 6.6 million subs. GW2 has zero. Apples and oranges.

  20. #820
    Quote Originally Posted by Mormolyce View Post
    GW2 is free and brand new, so if you think about it it's shocking that it isn't way bigger than WoW.

    P.S. Where are you getting your information? I don't think GW2 publishes active players. Apparently only about 3 million boxes have even been sold. So if what you're saying is true, every single person who bought a box would have to be currently playing.

    P.P.S. WoW has 6.6 million subs. GW2 has zero. Apples and oranges.
    Per NCSoft's own statistics, GW2 lost more than 80% in sales since launch. WoW makes more revenue in one month than GW2 made in its lifetime. Even Eve makes more in revenue than GW2. GW2 started off big but just like every other MMO sunk quickly, it is lucky to have 100k -150k active players at the moment.

    It isn't in WoW's league, it is in SWTOR's league.
    Last edited by Sharuko; 2013-11-07 at 04:32 AM.

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