0-100k Sub Loss
100k - 500k Sub Loss
500k - 1M Sub Loss
Greater than 1 Million Sub Loss
I don't expect to see any real loss other than the usual month to month, seasonal and patch variations.
People think WoW is crashing to the ground at full speed, no, not it really isn't, it's just not as popular as it used to be.
WoW is an anomaly, no other mmo came close, and no other ever will, including Blizzards own work, MMO's just aren't THAT popular any more, it's a shifted industry, deal with it, or continue shouting about how it's crashing to the ground and MoP is childish and the worst expansion ever whilst you log in every day and continue to pay that sub.
WoW will not continue to decline month on month for the next five years, the game would literally have to be broken, instead it will either settle as it is now, 6.5 to 7.5 million and jump at the next expac, then go down again to 6.5 to 7.5, or go further down to 3/4/5 million and settle there for years.
While there never was a wow killer in the west, there was in China, and it laucnhed last December. I still expect WOW to gradually lose subscribers, but nothing like 1M per quarter like happened in 4Q and 1Q
If you look at how these things usually trend, you will not generally see things flatten out after a nose dive in one period. They decrease would usually gradually taper off. Also outside of surges from a new expack the rate of decline is about 500k per quarter. We probably still have about a year until the next expack comes out so I think we will likely hit 5 million by then. What will be telling is after the initial surge back up to maybe 6 million, how fast things start dropping again. If the next expack flops it will likely be devastating to the game. Still no matter how bad it gets I am sure they will flatten out above 2 million subs, if next expack is a smash hit maybe as high as 4 million.
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Last edited by jbombard; 2013-10-28 at 05:43 AM.
And truth be told I don't care about subs. Well, that's not completely true. The way I see it, now that WoW has lost subs, it has made Blizzard change directions in their company; IE scrap Titan and spread out it's devs. Which I think most of them went over to WoW.
The conference call is on 11/6, so it's coming up soon.
What I love is that no matter what the number, it confirms everything everyone believes.
Love the game? Numbers confirm it.
Hate the game? Numbers confirm it.
Love a feature? Numbers confirm it.
Hate a feature? Numbers confirm it.
Having said that, I would love to see the game thrive again, and I only believe the way they can do that is bring back some nostalgic essence of how the game used to be. Millions would resub if they made some changes, but as we all know, once you give the masses something, its hard to take it away without repercussions.
Subs losses are not as black and white as you see them.
Greater than a million, expansion winding down with no sign of the next patch/expansion in sight...blizzcon will boost it up a bit then it will fall again until the next expansion where it will rise to 10+mill then slowly drop by 1-2 mill before the first patch of the next expansion hits...
I think if it falls, blizzard needs to stop using the "players tend to resub more when new patches come out" argument. Does anyone actually do that...?
My prediction though is that it's going to decline, 300k probably?
Last edited by Gehco; 2013-11-01 at 12:00 AM.
Actually I don't get the Diablo hate. I had a good time playing it.
I could have seen standing around an arcade machine playing it with my friends for a couple bucks worth of deaths, but it didn't really seem like something I wanted to put hours and hours into.
However! The game sold really well and some people like it, so it's not like it was a failure. Also, it didn't depart as far from it's base gameplay as the new Dungeon Siege game did, so it's not like it did nothing that old players would have wanted; just not much.
My prediction is that the loss will be anywhere between a million and two million, if not 2 million exactly. And no, I don't believe for one instant that "it's all in china". Anyone who thinks every loss is a chinese loss, is only fooling themselves and believing the outright lies Blizzard feeds their players to keep them from panicking. They've been having to do a lot of connected servers of late. And there's a reason for that. Server communities are dying.
And the reason server communities are dying is because people are getting tired of Blizzard's poor design decisions. And I highly doubt the game will be getting an expansion announcement at Blizzcon. I think the "what's next?" panel, will be discussing these subscription dropoffs, and rather than have physical expansions, they will start doing everything digitally as they implement free to play, in hopes that they can make up losses. There's a pattern already developing showing that they are going to flip the free to play switch. There's now an in game store. Past Blizzcons when they had an expansion to announce, the scheduling would read something along the lines of "Next World of Warcraft Expansion Announcement". But this time, it is "World of Warcraft: What's Next?".
If anything look forward to a few more timeless isle style content patches. Look forward to even more servers dying and being put on the connected realms list. On this current track of subscription losses, the game wont survive to see 2015. I am predicting by summer 2014 the subscription drop offs will be so great that they finally announce the closing of the game.
I assume 350-400k (even if I did vote for 500-1m)