View Poll Results: What is your Sub Loss Prediction?

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1318. You may not vote on this poll
  • 0-100k Sub Loss

    225 17.07%
  • 100k - 500k Sub Loss

    446 33.84%
  • 500k - 1M Sub Loss

    320 24.28%
  • Greater than 1 Million Sub Loss

    236 17.91%
  • Other

    91 6.90%
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  1. #621
    Quote Originally Posted by Glorious Leader View Post
    Christ I could swore I said it was anecdotal. But yes you have one piece of anecdotal evidence and so do I. By the laws of immutable transmutation we're tied.
    Well if we're tied on anecdotal evidence then there must be some kind of tie breaker, correct?

  2. #622
    Over 9000! Glorious Leader's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pebrocks The Warlock View Post
    Well if we're tied on anecdotal evidence then there must be some kind of tie breaker, correct?
    Yes when the subs come out and their disastrously low to the point of being comical you will have lost. Actually even then you won't give a fuck because you'll use the stupid forum trick of oh i don't care about subs I have fun anyway.
    The hammer comes down:
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    Normal should be reduced in difficulty. Heroic should be reduced in difficulty.
    And the tiny fraction for whom heroic raids are currently well tuned? Too bad,so sad! With the arterial bleed of subs the fastest it's ever been, the vanity development that gives you guys your own content is no longer supportable.

  3. #623
    I don't expect to see any real loss other than the usual month to month, seasonal and patch variations.

    People think WoW is crashing to the ground at full speed, no, not it really isn't, it's just not as popular as it used to be.

    WoW is an anomaly, no other mmo came close, and no other ever will, including Blizzards own work, MMO's just aren't THAT popular any more, it's a shifted industry, deal with it, or continue shouting about how it's crashing to the ground and MoP is childish and the worst expansion ever whilst you log in every day and continue to pay that sub.

    WoW will not continue to decline month on month for the next five years, the game would literally have to be broken, instead it will either settle as it is now, 6.5 to 7.5 million and jump at the next expac, then go down again to 6.5 to 7.5, or go further down to 3/4/5 million and settle there for years.

    /drama

  4. #624
    Quote Originally Posted by Toiran View Post
    I don't expect to see any real loss other than the usual month to month, seasonal and patch variations.

    People think WoW is crashing to the ground at full speed, no, not it really isn't, it's just not as popular as it used to be.

    WoW is an anomaly, no other mmo came close, and no other ever will, including Blizzards own work, MMO's just aren't THAT popular any more, it's a shifted industry, deal with it, or continue shouting about how it's crashing to the ground and MoP is childish and the worst expansion ever whilst you log in every day and continue to pay that sub.

    WoW will not continue to decline month on month for the next five years, the game would literally have to be broken, instead it will either settle as it is now, 6.5 to 7.5 million and jump at the next expac, then go down again to 6.5 to 7.5, or go further down to 3/4/5 million and settle there for years.

    /drama
    Exactly. Look at the original post. You notice that 1M gain in 3Q? and that followed by a big drop? You know what happened there? A huge F2P game was released in China. People make it out like the game is losing subs because of micro-changes the devs make. No, the game lost a huge chunk of it´s cheap china players who switched to a f2p game marketed in their cyber cafes. Revenues never dropped anywhere near as much as subs did, which proves it was not $15 per month subscribers who left.

    While there never was a wow killer in the west, there was in China, and it laucnhed last December. I still expect WOW to gradually lose subscribers, but nothing like 1M per quarter like happened in 4Q and 1Q

  5. #625
    Quote Originally Posted by Toiran View Post
    I don't expect to see any real loss other than the usual month to month, seasonal and patch variations.

    People think WoW is crashing to the ground at full speed, no, not it really isn't, it's just not as popular as it used to be.

    WoW is an anomaly, no other mmo came close, and no other ever will, including Blizzards own work, MMO's just aren't THAT popular any more, it's a shifted industry, deal with it, or continue shouting about how it's crashing to the ground and MoP is childish and the worst expansion ever whilst you log in every day and continue to pay that sub.

    WoW will not continue to decline month on month for the next five years, the game would literally have to be broken, instead it will either settle as it is now, 6.5 to 7.5 million and jump at the next expac, then go down again to 6.5 to 7.5, or go further down to 3/4/5 million and settle there for years.

    /drama

    If you look at how these things usually trend, you will not generally see things flatten out after a nose dive in one period. They decrease would usually gradually taper off. Also outside of surges from a new expack the rate of decline is about 500k per quarter. We probably still have about a year until the next expack comes out so I think we will likely hit 5 million by then. What will be telling is after the initial surge back up to maybe 6 million, how fast things start dropping again. If the next expack flops it will likely be devastating to the game. Still no matter how bad it gets I am sure they will flatten out above 2 million subs, if next expack is a smash hit maybe as high as 4 million.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Azrile View Post
    Exactly. Look at the original post. You notice that 1M gain in 3Q? and that followed by a big drop? You know what happened there? A huge F2P game was released in China. People make it out like the game is losing subs because of micro-changes the devs make. No, the game lost a huge chunk of it´s cheap china players who switched to a f2p game marketed in their cyber cafes. Revenues never dropped anywhere near as much as subs did, which proves it was not $15 per month subscribers who left.

    While there never was a wow killer in the west, there was in China, and it laucnhed last December. I still expect WOW to gradually lose subscribers, but nothing like 1M per quarter like happened in 4Q and 1Q
    WoWEast only had 1 million more subs than WoWWest back in 2010. If everytime we lose subs it has been Asian subs like people always say, how many subs do you think they have left there? 3 million?(that wouldn't be that big of a loss comparatively) Next time we lose another 2 millions subs I bet it will be all Asia again and the timer after that too even though we would have negative sub numbers for Asia at that point.
    Last edited by jbombard; 2013-10-28 at 05:43 AM.

  6. #626
    Quote Originally Posted by Glorious Leader View Post
    Yes when the subs come out and their disastrously low to the point of being comical you will have lost. Actually even then you won't give a fuck because you'll use the stupid forum trick of oh i don't care about subs I have fun anyway.
    Lost what exactly? All I said was I've seen people resub for SoO. I know for a fact(ish) that subs will be lower again. It's expected.
    And truth be told I don't care about subs. Well, that's not completely true. The way I see it, now that WoW has lost subs, it has made Blizzard change directions in their company; IE scrap Titan and spread out it's devs. Which I think most of them went over to WoW.

  7. #627
    The conference call is on 11/6, so it's coming up soon.

    What I love is that no matter what the number, it confirms everything everyone believes.

    Love the game? Numbers confirm it.
    Hate the game? Numbers confirm it.

    Love a feature? Numbers confirm it.
    Hate a feature? Numbers confirm it.

  8. #628
    Quote Originally Posted by Zaqwert View Post
    The conference call is on 11/6, so it's coming up soon.

    What I love is that no matter what the number, it confirms everything everyone believes.

    Love the game? Numbers confirm it.
    Hate the game? Numbers confirm it.

    Love a feature? Numbers confirm it.
    Hate a feature? Numbers confirm it.
    The only thing sub losses confirm is that interest in the game is dying off. Less players means they are obviously not fooled anymore by blizzards terrible game design, and have moved on to brighter pastures.

    Having said that, I would love to see the game thrive again, and I only believe the way they can do that is bring back some nostalgic essence of how the game used to be. Millions would resub if they made some changes, but as we all know, once you give the masses something, its hard to take it away without repercussions.

  9. #629
    High Overlord Dezminion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kowloon View Post
    If more players quit then that's good.

    Chances are they are casual and that means less crappy players to have an unfortunate experience by playing this game together with them in LFD or LFR.
    You know, no offence to you, but a statement like that sounds arrogant and... ...not so polite.
    Could even think that you, yourself are not that experienced, could be wrong, but attacking at the co-players does not give a mature expression of you.

    Peace and long life.

  10. #630
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaylock View Post
    The only thing sub losses confirm is that interest in the game is dying off. Less players means they are obviously not fooled anymore by blizzards terrible game design, and have moved on to brighter pastures.
    There are other reasons people unsub besides "terrible game design." Money issues. Found another game to play. Stopped gaming altogether. Got banned. Game is old and you want something new and different. Death. 1000s of other things.

    Subs losses are not as black and white as you see them.

  11. #631
    Old God Frozenbeef's Avatar
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    Greater than a million, expansion winding down with no sign of the next patch/expansion in sight...blizzcon will boost it up a bit then it will fall again until the next expansion where it will rise to 10+mill then slowly drop by 1-2 mill before the first patch of the next expansion hits...

  12. #632
    Quote Originally Posted by Frozenbeef View Post
    Greater than a million, expansion winding down with no sign of the next patch/expansion in sight...blizzcon will boost it up a bit then it will fall again until the next expansion where it will rise to 10+mill then slowly drop by 1-2 mill before the first patch of the next expansion hits...
    I don't see how blizzcon announcing stuff will make players want to play the current game. Players would just come back once the new expansion ships if anything.

  13. #633
    I think if it falls, blizzard needs to stop using the "players tend to resub more when new patches come out" argument. Does anyone actually do that...?

    My prediction though is that it's going to decline, 300k probably?

  14. #634
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaylock View Post
    I don't see how blizzcon announcing stuff will make players want to play the current game. Players would just come back once the new expansion ships if anything.
    Agreed. With the RoS announcements and the follow-up data mining leaks for the D3 expansion, I can say it's intriguing and I have a level of interest in it. But that doesn't make me want to go play the pile of excrement that is the current game.

  15. #635
    Quote Originally Posted by MistsofBoredom View Post
    Agreed. With the RoS announcements and the follow-up data mining leaks for the D3 expansion, I can say it's intriguing and I have a level of interest in it. But that doesn't make me want to go play the pile of excrement that is the current game.
    When was the last time you played it? Its actually a lot better, and I still find fun playing it. The game has always been about finding loot and killing monsters, and thats exactly what it is now. Its not an MMO that receives constant content updates.

  16. #636
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaylock View Post
    When was the last time you played it? Its actually a lot better, and I still find fun playing it. The game has always been about finding loot and killing monsters, and thats exactly what it is now. Its not an MMO that receives constant content updates.
    http://i.imgur.com/K2P1iXU.gif

    Infracted.
    Last edited by Gehco; 2013-11-01 at 12:00 AM.

  17. #637
    Dreadlord Baine's Avatar
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    Actually I don't get the Diablo hate. I had a good time playing it.

  18. #638
    Quote Originally Posted by Baine View Post
    Actually I don't get the Diablo hate. I had a good time playing it.
    Mostly, it was people expecting something that was more like Diablo2 and less like Gauntlet. D3 made one hell of a gauntlet game. Without gear choices, talent trees, ability boosting gear, usable skill variety, a compelling well written story, a smooth difficulty progression, randomly generated maps, or something new to the series; it felt like less of a game than it should have.

    I could have seen standing around an arcade machine playing it with my friends for a couple bucks worth of deaths, but it didn't really seem like something I wanted to put hours and hours into.

    However! The game sold really well and some people like it, so it's not like it was a failure. Also, it didn't depart as far from it's base gameplay as the new Dungeon Siege game did, so it's not like it did nothing that old players would have wanted; just not much.

  19. #639
    My prediction is that the loss will be anywhere between a million and two million, if not 2 million exactly. And no, I don't believe for one instant that "it's all in china". Anyone who thinks every loss is a chinese loss, is only fooling themselves and believing the outright lies Blizzard feeds their players to keep them from panicking. They've been having to do a lot of connected servers of late. And there's a reason for that. Server communities are dying.

    And the reason server communities are dying is because people are getting tired of Blizzard's poor design decisions. And I highly doubt the game will be getting an expansion announcement at Blizzcon. I think the "what's next?" panel, will be discussing these subscription dropoffs, and rather than have physical expansions, they will start doing everything digitally as they implement free to play, in hopes that they can make up losses. There's a pattern already developing showing that they are going to flip the free to play switch. There's now an in game store. Past Blizzcons when they had an expansion to announce, the scheduling would read something along the lines of "Next World of Warcraft Expansion Announcement". But this time, it is "World of Warcraft: What's Next?".

    If anything look forward to a few more timeless isle style content patches. Look forward to even more servers dying and being put on the connected realms list. On this current track of subscription losses, the game wont survive to see 2015. I am predicting by summer 2014 the subscription drop offs will be so great that they finally announce the closing of the game.

  20. #640
    Dreadlord Killmaim Deathbringer's Avatar
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    I assume 350-400k (even if I did vote for 500-1m)

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