View Poll Results: What is your Sub Loss Prediction?

Voters
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  • 0-100k Sub Loss

    225 17.07%
  • 100k - 500k Sub Loss

    446 33.84%
  • 500k - 1M Sub Loss

    320 24.28%
  • Greater than 1 Million Sub Loss

    236 17.91%
  • Other

    91 6.90%
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  1. #641
    at this point, given western 5.4 timing (no idea on china's 5.4 timing), would say around 250-500k loss.

    q4, of course, I would expect to be worse than q3, whatever it ends up being.

    I do think that unless blizzard finds a way to get out of this McContent quick-bites content quick-consumption design philosophy, they are going to have a hard time keeping folks engaged in any expansion after initial spike. For the record, I am not at all sure they CAN get out of McContent-type design. The crowd is used to it now. Pandora's box is open, but I just don't see how having almost anyone who cares to try beat the big baddie on the patch splash screen within a few weeks of release (and that only gated by LFR gating) works as a viable content longevity model.

    I know, I know, 'but did you beat it on heroic?' I suspect many players roll their eyes as much as I do when I read that question. Did I beat d2 on hell difficulty? well no, but I saw the diablo and baal fights enough to be satisfied that I did see the game, just not on the extra-super-hard setting.
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  2. #642
    1.1 million subs is my estimate.

    I think there's just too much competition on the market now, especially internationally. Final Fantasy XIV dropped a few months back and seems to be doing really well, probably because of the console version and the lack of competition on the market for console MMOs. I still play it, and the queue times to get into the game just get longer and longer during prime time on my server.

    You also have Dota 2 and League of Legends continuing to rise in popularity, especially internationally. From what I hear, WoW all but completely died in South Korea.

    As silly as it sounds, I think Hearthstone pulled a lot of fans away from WoW and into it. It's free, it's Warcraft, it's full of nostalgia and it's incredibly polished and fun. I think there's a pretty big crossover between the TCG crowd and the MMO crowd. Almost every nerd has nerded out to a TCG at some point in their lives, and Hearthstone beta invites have been handed out like Trick-or-Treat candy.

    Then you have all the big non-MMO games that have come out recently, such as GTA V. New consoles on the horizon and lots of Fall releases that people are excited for.

  3. #643
    Quote Originally Posted by Alewen View Post
    Past Blizzcons when they had an expansion to announce, the scheduling would read something along the lines of "Next World of Warcraft Expansion Announcement". But this time, it is "World of Warcraft: What's Next?"
    Actually, they had rather vague names like "World of Warcraft Preview Panel" (2009, Cata announced) and "World of Warcraft Preview" (2011, MoP announced). "What's Next" sounds just as likely to be an expansion reveal as "Preview".

  4. #644
    Quote Originally Posted by Alewen View Post
    My prediction is that the loss will be anywhere between a million and two million, if not 2 million exactly. And no, I don't believe for one instant that "it's all in china". Anyone who thinks every loss is a chinese loss, is only fooling themselves and believing the outright lies Blizzard feeds their players to keep them from panicking. They've been having to do a lot of connected servers of late. And there's a reason for that. Server communities are dying.

    And the reason server communities are dying is because people are getting tired of Blizzard's poor design decisions. And I highly doubt the game will be getting an expansion announcement at Blizzcon. I think the "what's next?" panel, will be discussing these subscription dropoffs, and rather than have physical expansions, they will start doing everything digitally as they implement free to play, in hopes that they can make up losses. There's a pattern already developing showing that they are going to flip the free to play switch. There's now an in game store. Past Blizzcons when they had an expansion to announce, the scheduling would read something along the lines of "Next World of Warcraft Expansion Announcement". But this time, it is "World of Warcraft: What's Next?".

    If anything look forward to a few more timeless isle style content patches. Look forward to even more servers dying and being put on the connected realms list. On this current track of subscription losses, the game wont survive to see 2015. I am predicting by summer 2014 the subscription drop offs will be so great that they finally announce the closing of the game.
    O.o you realize they've already said there's another expansion right?

  5. #645
    Mechagnome Steampunk's Avatar
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    I see it going one of two ways.

    If the expansion is well received: Under 500k gone.
    If the expansion is not well received: Over 600k gone.

    Blizzard's state of decay really rests with this coming expansion; and the new (if any) features they plan to add/alter.
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    Lacking ammo, the forum troll darts into the realm of personal insults and doomsaying; the most primitive means of gaining attention from its peers.
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    You know something, none of us ruined the game. We make it better. And so do most of you.

  6. #646
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaylock View Post
    The only thing sub losses confirm is that interest in the game is dying off. Less players means they are obviously not fooled anymore by blizzards terrible game design, and have moved on to brighter pastures.

    Having said that, I would love to see the game thrive again, and I only believe the way they can do that is bring back some nostalgic essence of how the game used to be. Millions would resub if they made some changes, but as we all know, once you give the masses something, its hard to take it away without repercussions.
    MMO-Champs has given us you, I doubt any repercussions if they took you away. Besides the weekly locked account of course.
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  7. #647
    Quote Originally Posted by Baine View Post
    Actually I don't get the Diablo hate. I had a good time playing it.
    There you have it. You HAD a good time playing it. If it was as great as Diablo 2, I for example, would still play it regularly. It might not be fair, but I expect a Diablo title to last for several years like the predecessors.

  8. #648
    I think I'm going to change my answer to as 5.9 Million sub increase.

  9. #649
    One of the biggest reasons people leave is empty servers. Mergers are a good idea, but going too slowly.

    I used to play on a mid-size server, 45K alliance, 20K horde. Horde side has always been dead. Alliance side became dead during Cata/MOP. I quit as raid guilds died, xferred, etc. I am worried they may never merge my server as it is not one of the deadest servers.

    Blizzard has been in denial of the problem, by the time they admit it, they are now too slow to fix it. At this snail pace, they won't have any subs by the time they complete server mergers.

  10. #650
    Brewmaster xlightning's Avatar
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    So, tomorrow it is. I mantain my prediction, around 500k loss.

  11. #651
    620k sub loss.

    But the REAL problem will be the next 3 quarters when there is no content.
    Free-To-Play is the future.

  12. #652
    Pandaren Monk Klutzington's Avatar
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    I honestly don't understand why people even care, lmao. This thread pops up probably 20 times every year and it's filled with the same people who quit WoW, for some reason waste their time complaining about it, and even weirder... wish Blizzard fails.

    I'm unsure who has the problem here.

    OT: You shouldn't care at all the amount of sub loss/gain. If you enjoy a game, play it. If you do not enjoy a game, don't.

  13. #653
    I wonder, does my -1 sub count this quarter or next? My account lost playtime 6 weeks ago, but I have not logged on in 7 months.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Klutzington View Post
    I honestly don't understand why people even care, lmao. This thread pops up probably 20 times every year and it's filled with the same people who quit WoW, for some reason waste their time complaining about it, and even weirder... wish Blizzard fails.
    The game has been out for almost a decade, virtually everybody quit at one point, deal with it? Blizzard has a big market in MMOs, so they will always be of interest to me. I will watch Blizzcon without being a sub or player of any of their games.
    Free-To-Play is the future.

  14. #654
    Brewmaster xlightning's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trakanonn View Post
    I wonder, does my -1 sub count this quarter or next? My account lost playtime 6 weeks ago, but I have not logged on in 7 months.

    - - - Updated - - -


    The game has been out for almost a decade, virtually everybody quit at one point, deal with it?
    This call is about July 1st-September 30th.

    It counts if you have a subscription active, doesn't matter if you log in or not.

  15. #655
    Quote Originally Posted by xlightning View Post
    This call is about July 1st-September 30th.
    I know that

    Technically, I had an active game-time during this quarter (ended Aug 30th), but I have not logged in 1 single time this quarter or last.. That is my question. DO I count as a sub tomorrow?
    Free-To-Play is the future.

  16. #656
    I voted for 500k-1m.

    Although I heard anecdotes of people coming back this patch due to the Orgrimmar raid, none of the old friends on my friends list have reactivated their accounts. I personally know several people who have quit recently as well.

    I guess there is a chance that the sub loss is less than 500k, but I'd be quite surprised if that's the case.

    And somehow, the last couple years of dropping subs haven't convinced Blizzard that a significant number of people aren't drawn to the current storylines, among other things. Heh.

  17. #657
    Stood in the Fire
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trakanonn View Post
    I wonder, does my -1 sub count this quarter or next? My account lost playtime 6 weeks ago, but I have not logged on in 7 months.

    - - - Updated - - -


    The game has been out for almost a decade, virtually everybody quit at one point, deal with it? Blizzard has a big market in MMOs, so they will always be of interest to me. I will watch Blizzcon without being a sub or player of any of their games.
    Played for 8 years never took a break so I am not virtually everybody, and you didnt answer the question as to why "YOU" care?
    http://us.battle.net/wow/en/characte...ckabear/simple

    Ideally no one has ever hit the level cap of the last expansion, looked at their dungeon blues, and thought "I win."

  18. #658
    Brewmaster xlightning's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trakanonn View Post
    I know that

    Technically, I had an active game-time during this quarter (ended Aug 30th), but I have not logged in 1 single time this quarter or last.. That is my question. DO I count as a sub tomorrow?
    Maybe if you read my whole post instead only the first line?

  19. #659
    Quote Originally Posted by Klutzington View Post
    I honestly don't understand why people even care, lmao. This thread pops up probably 20 times every year and it's filled with the same people who quit WoW, for some reason waste their time complaining about it, and even weirder... wish Blizzard fails.

    I'm unsure who has the problem here.

    OT: You shouldn't care at all the amount of sub loss/gain. If you enjoy a game, play it. If you do not enjoy a game, don't.
    For me it is just a curiosity and I do find it interesting to speculate, but there are always going to be that bunch of people with an axe to grind and the false dichotomy of "see sub loss if they just took away flying mounts this would have never happened" and such.

  20. #660
    Quote Originally Posted by Trakanonn View Post
    I know that

    Technically, I had an active game-time during this quarter (ended Aug 30th), but I have not logged in 1 single time this quarter or last.. That is my question. DO I count as a sub tomorrow?
    Yes, this is info for shareholders. If you are contributing money to them for a subscription, then you are counted.

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