Originally Posted by
Daetur
The longest an expansion has ever lasted was 25 months, and the average expansion duration is 23 months. Blizzard has stated they they are aiming for shorter expansions and patch cycles than in Wrath and Cata.
Mists will be over by September 2014 at the latest, or it will go beyond the average duration of an expansion, when Blizzard has stated that they are aiming for shorter thank average expansions. If Mists ends before September 2014, SoO can last, at an absolute maximum, 11 months.
Last spring, I predicted Mists' release date within one week of the actual date, several months before it was announced, so I think I've shown that I've been able to come up with reasonable launch estimates in the past. While I do not have as much information to work with in regards to the next expansion, here is a compilation of some information and patterns from previous expansion releases and previous Blizzard games, from which we can try to guess a probable release window:
Beta start date to release:
Burning Crusade closed Beta started in early October 2006, and it was released 3 months later, on January 16, 2007.
Wrath of the Lich King started its closed Beta on July 17th, 2008. It was released on November 13, 2008: 4 months later.
Cataclysm Beta testing began at the very end of June, 2010. It was released on December 7th, 2010-- 5 months later.
Mists of Pandaria Beta started March 20th, 2012. It was released September 25th, 2012, 6 months later. It skipped the Friends and Family alpha phase, possibly resulting in an abnormally long Beta duration.
I don't feel comfortable comparing expansion betas with the original Warcraft beta, or with the SC2/D3 betas, because those were for full games, not expansions, and in the case of SC2 and D3, completely different development teams and completely different games.
The Beta test for the next expansion will probably be between 5 and 7 months-- 5 months if the "extra" month on Mist's beta was due to a lack of Friends and Family Alpha, and 7 months if we assume that the beta for the next expansion will fit the "pattern" of the duration of the beta taking an additional month each time. Assuming it starts shortly after Blizzcon, the beta should end between April and June 2014, with a release following immediately afterwards.
We may also be able to infer that it will not have a Friends and Family Alpha testing phase, since Mists did not.
Official Expansion Reveal at Blizzcon:
Simply that every single World of Warcraft expansion has been revealed at and has been a major feature of a Blizzcon. It is very reasonable to expect the same of the next expansion.
Expansion Durations:
Burning Crusade lasted 22 months from its release to Wrath of the Lich King's release.
Wrath of the Lich King lasted 25 months from its release to Cataclysm's release.
Cataclysm lasted 21 months from its release to Mists of Pandaria's release
Mists has only been out for about 12 1/2 months as of this writing. Assuming that it will last a similar duration to Cataclysm/Burning Crusade or shorter, we should see the next expansion in spring or summer 2014 (sometime between April at the earliest, August at the latest).
Final Tier Durations:
Naxxramas in Classic lasted 8 months.
Sunwell Plateau lasted 8 months.
ICC lasted exactly 12 months.
Dragon Soul lasted 9 months.
I would assume that Blizzard is shooting for their 8-9 month final tier duration with SoO, or shorter, since ICC is the only outlier. If we assume they achieve their target window of 8-9 month duration of SoO, we will see the next expansion around April or May 2014.
In Conclusion:
I think we can expect the next expansion around April-June of 2014. They may be withholding information and be much farther along in internal testing than we think they are, which would allow them to start the Beta shortly after Blizzcon. The gap between Beta end and launch is usually only a few weeks at most, not "a month at least" like you're assuming- for example, the Cata beta ended on November 22, and it was released on December 7th, two weeks later.