New wow expansion will be announced at Blizzcon ?

[gee]

Yup, we're already through the last raid of MoP, it's time.

This worries me that that last raid may last for a year!

November, next expansion announced. Friends and family alpha for 2 months, beta for 4 months, another month at least for release. It is 8 months from now. How long will the last MOP raid last?

If they take so long until next expansion, subs will dip to a new low.

[Arbs]

Blizzcon is already pushing its without a doubt it will be annouced at Blizzcon.

[Twotonsteak]

I'm more interested in WHEN the next one will be released. As others have said we're in the last raid of this expansion now.

Of the four current expansions three were released in the last quarter of the year. The only exception to this was BC and even that was released in January. At this point it's pretty much a given that there won't be an expansion before the end of this year.

In short I'm just wondering if they're going to pull another ICC on us and try to stretch this tier out for almost a year.

[Noctredors]

Yes, expansions have always been announced at Blizzcon.

[Daetur]

This worries me that that last raid may last for a year!

November, next expansion announced. Friends and family alpha for 2 months, beta for 4 months, another month at least for release. It is 8 months from now. How long will the last MOP raid last?

If they take so long until next expansion, subs will dip to a new low.

The longest an expansion has ever lasted was 25 months, and the average expansion duration is 23 months. Blizzard has stated they they are aiming for shorter expansions and patch cycles than in Wrath and Cata.

Mists will be over by September 2014 at the latest, or it will go beyond the average duration of an expansion, when Blizzard has stated that they are aiming for shorter thank average expansions. If Mists ends before September 2014, SoO can last, at an absolute maximum, 11 months.

Last spring, I predicted Mists' release date within one week of the actual date, several months before it was announced, so I think I've shown that I've been able to come up with reasonable launch estimates in the past. While I do not have as much information to work with in regards to the next expansion, here is a compilation of some information and patterns from previous expansion releases and previous Blizzard games, from which we can try to guess a probable release window:


Beta start date to release:

Burning Crusade closed Beta started in early October 2006, and it was released 3 months later, on January 16, 2007.
Wrath of the Lich King started its closed Beta on July 17th, 2008. It was released on November 13, 2008: 4 months later.
Cataclysm Beta testing began at the very end of June, 2010. It was released on December 7th, 2010-- 5 months later.
Mists of Pandaria Beta started March 20th, 2012. It was released September 25th, 2012, 6 months later. It skipped the Friends and Family alpha phase, possibly resulting in an abnormally long Beta duration.

I don't feel comfortable comparing expansion betas with the original Warcraft beta, or with the SC2/D3 betas, because those were for full games, not expansions, and in the case of SC2 and D3, completely different development teams and completely different games.

The Beta test for the next expansion will probably be between 5 and 7 months-- 5 months if the "extra" month on Mist's beta was due to a lack of Friends and Family Alpha, and 7 months if we assume that the beta for the next expansion will fit the "pattern" of the duration of the beta taking an additional month each time. Assuming it starts shortly after Blizzcon, the beta should end between April and June 2014, with a release following immediately afterwards.

We may also be able to infer that it will not have a Friends and Family Alpha testing phase, since Mists did not.


Official Expansion Reveal at Blizzcon:

Simply that every single World of Warcraft expansion has been revealed at and has been a major feature of a Blizzcon. It is very reasonable to expect the same of the next expansion.

Expansion Durations:

Burning Crusade lasted 22 months from its release to Wrath of the Lich King's release.
Wrath of the Lich King lasted 25 months from its release to Cataclysm's release.
Cataclysm lasted 21 months from its release to Mists of Pandaria's release
Mists has only been out for about 12 1/2 months as of this writing. Assuming that it will last a similar duration to Cataclysm/Burning Crusade or shorter, we should see the next expansion in spring or summer 2014 (sometime between April at the earliest, August at the latest).

Final Tier Durations:
Naxxramas in Classic lasted 8 months.
Sunwell Plateau lasted 8 months.
ICC lasted exactly 12 months.
Dragon Soul lasted 9 months.

I would assume that Blizzard is shooting for their 8-9 month final tier duration with SoO, or shorter, since ICC is the only outlier. If we assume they achieve their target window of 8-9 month duration of SoO, we will see the next expansion around April or May 2014.


In Conclusion:

I think we can expect the next expansion around April-June of 2014. They may be withholding information and be much farther along in internal testing than we think they are, which would allow them to start the Beta shortly after Blizzcon. The gap between Beta end and launch is usually only a few weeks at most, not "a month at least" like you're assuming- for example, the Cata beta ended on November 22, and it was released on December 7th, two weeks later.

[MoanaLisa]

I think they've hinted broadly enough that it will be announced there (if not come out and outright said so). So yes.

[Tierbook]

even at a may release that gives them 9 months from start of this tier till launch and we haven't received a single hint of information about the next expansion. How long does beta nearly start after the announcement and how long does it last after start anyway?

[Vvulf]

They'll also confirm that when you pass 100 waves in Endless Proving grounds, you gain access to the Secret Cow Level.

[Soulfròst]

Yes, The Dark Below will be announced at Blizzcon.

/evilgrin

[Deleted]

A lot of people will be surprised by the exceptional new release schedule. Don't expect the expansion release to happen next autumn, it will be before summer.

[Flaks]

A lot of people will be surprised by the exceptional new release schedule. Don't expect the expansion release to happen next autumn, it will be before summer.

This seems likely.

I will say though that they could do some funky stuff with MoP and stretch it out another full year by making patches 5.5 and/or 5.6 huge ones and so keep us waiting until next November and launch the next expansion as a 10 year anniversary thing. Not very plausible I guess but it COULD happen.

[Sastank]

thereisnocowlevel

[Haven2011]

Yes, The Dark Below will be announced at Blizzcon.

/evilgrin

There no proof of that being the expansion

[Deleted]

I hope so and boy I'm excited

[Elestia]

What if the new xpac is actually WoW2... and totally different... Or actually Titan and all ur toons are warped into a different time period...

[Maoli]

New expansion will be set for late jan/early feb

[Deleted]

yes. they did so big quarrel arround "the dark below", "heroes of the storm", "corgis unleashed" so everyone would be disapointed after Blizzcon if they wouldnt announce new WoW xpac(even if they would announce 10 other games).


I wonder if the next patch will be post-MoP or pre-patch of next expansion... I mean if it will be a post scriptum to story of Timeless Isle, Trial of Garrosh, rebuilding of Orgrimmar(with Vol'jin on the throne with warchief tittle) and repairing of Stormwind or it will be a preparation for the next expansion with naga/BL invasions, new unknown enemies, Alleria and Turalyon return, introduction for new playable races or classes etc.

[thoruga]

I see no reason why not. I think it's even late. Both Cataclysm and MoP were anounced before last raids of WotLK and Cata were released. I wasn't following this stuff before that so I can't say anything about previous expansions.

[Deleted]

yes 110%, and hopefully a new exp before next Blizzcon next year

[velde046]

What do you think , the new wow expansion will be announced at Blizzcon ?

Definitely. Especially since they intend to have more frequent content and expansions and it was made clear that Siege of Orgrimmar would be this expansion last raid/content patch so they'd better have an announcement for the new xpac or they might be screwed really....