Mafia 33: The Fall of House Dan'thal?

[falbacca]

Thanks Fal, They brought him home for the night now since the hospital didn't have a bed free. But he still has more tests to do and he still can't eat anything, The doctor said we might have caught it early enough that a simple diet change and some meds and he should be okay. But we wont know until all the tests are done and back, but it's looking a bit better at least.

Well still hoping everything works out!

Btw since Krayzy has actually posted some stuff with good content to it ... I'm gonna have to think things over while running lfrs ...

[Decagon]

Greeney, I'm only calling people out for using D1 as an excuse to not post, rather than a legitimate excuse.

You said you'll only post when you have nothing else to do IF the majority of it is just fluff. If it's not just fluff (as in, someone claims miller) then it's probably a good idea to post if you're able.

What I'm mostly getting at is that I think it's really scummy (or just absolutely terrible town play) if we disregard information just because it happened on Day 1.

[Krayzy]

The way this has all played out just doesn't seem right to me and I don't believe Danner is what he says he is. He's more likely to be scum in my opinion and even if he's vigi he's just randomly killing people. I've always believed that a vigi that kills just for the sake of killing (he mentioned nothing about Anakso yesterday as far as I can remember) is just as dangerous as a sk, so with that said.

Vote Danner

[Decagon]

Personally, I still think we should look at others. If we find no other options, Danner could be considered, but I think Greeney puts it well.

If Danner is mafia, we control that mafia teams kill.
If Danner is vig, well, we have a kill and Danner will probably be killed off soon.
If Danner is SK, well, same thing as vig, really, just that he's not pro-town.

The most dangerous scenario is if Danner is SK and decides to wreck havoc on the town before he is lynched or NKed, rather than do what I think Danner would opt to do and help out the town.

[Robozerim]

Personally, I still think we should look at others. If we find no other options, Danner could be considered, but I think Greeney puts it well.

If Danner is mafia, we control that mafia teams kill.
If Danner is vig, well, we have a kill and Danner will probably be killed off soon.
If Danner is SK, well, same thing as vig, really, just that he's not pro-town.

The most dangerous scenario is if Danner is SK and decides to wreck havoc on the town before he is lynched or NKed, rather than do what I think Danner would opt to do and help out the town.

If he is mafia, how might I ask are we controlling the mafia team's kill? If he's mafia, he's just trying to stall for a day or so by surviving that one extra day and sending a lynch the wrong direction instead of the right. Do you really think they'd follow our orders? Where would that lead? Him killing the wrong targets until we tell him to hit the right one, at which point he kills anybody else letting us know that we've got another mafian? What's to stop him from faking us out and killing as we say the first day, then killing somebody we don't the second when we actually pushed to have him kill another townie? Then we've got a nicely framed person to lynch? Or to just simply kill anybody but who we say to kill? No, if I were a mafian in his position and managed to avoid lynching, I'd probably just kill anybody except who I'm told by the town, happy to have caused a mislynch and killed an extra person when before it would have simply been me getting lynched. No, I don't see how you could even think we could possibly control the mafia NK. The risks inherent in such an attempted strategy are too high for the reward. Any evidence we'd get would be WIFOM at best.

The second possibility seems about right, and the third one just glosses over the fact that he's not pro-town.

[Loaf]

I feel like I am unable to play these games anymore >_< My memory has degraded to the point where keeping track of who said what and what's going on is hard to do

[Decagon]

If he is mafia, how might I ask are we controlling the mafia team's kill? If he's mafia, he's just trying to stall for a day or so by surviving that one extra day and sending a lynch the wrong direction instead of the right. Do you really think they'd follow our orders? Where would that lead? Him killing the wrong targets until we tell him to hit the right one, at which point he kills anybody else letting us know that we've got another mafian? What's to stop him from faking us out and killing as we say the first day, then killing somebody we don't the second when we actually pushed to have him kill another townie? Then we've got a nicely framed person to lynch? Or to just simply kill anybody but who we say to kill? No, if I were a mafian in his position and managed to avoid lynching, I'd probably just kill anybody except who I'm told by the town, happy to have caused a mislynch and killed an extra person when before it would have simply been me getting lynched. No, I don't see how you could even think we could possibly control the mafia NK. The risks inherent in such an attempted strategy are too high for the reward. Any evidence we'd get would be WIFOM at best.

The second possibility seems about right, and the third one just glosses over the fact that he's not pro-town.

Hm, I suppose you're correct. I still don't believe he is mafia though. I'm pretty sure he's SK, but not vig or mafia.


Worge, you know that you can go back and read, right? Or take notes so you can just go to the post number that you know is important.

[Uggorthaholy]

Night vote count

Danner - 7 (Catta, Foxxi, Greeney, Krayzy, Lysah, Pistol, Robozerim)
Virothe - 1 (Danner)
Lysah - 1 (Worgenite)

[Krayzy]

I'm heading to bed and when I wake up I need to head to the hospital for an IV infusion (nothing major...just an infusion of IV meds I get once every 2 months now). I'll be at the hospital for up to 8 hours unless they decide not to do it, which they might, because I have a nasty cold that's been kicking my ass.

Anyways, I'll be MIA for the next 16 hours or so.

[Decagon]

Vote: Worge

He keeps claiming that his win condition is to lynch Lysah, and even if that's not true, he still hasn't added anything.

- - - Updated - - -

Totally forgot to bold, my bad.

Vote: Worge

[falbacca]

Well I guess I'm going "old school my way" this game so I went to see about those who hadn't posted in a while. Arialla hasn't posted in a while but nearly all her posts have had some substance. Dyra hasn't posted in a long while but according to a post made elsewhere, it sounds like she is possibly sick - so I'm gonna let it slide. Foxxi had raiding tonight so I knew she'd be preoccupied (Worg, her, and I are in the same guild on WoW). Waker, on the other hand, has not made a post since the bump was made before daytime. I'm still not sure whether Danner is telling the truth - but if he truly is a vigilante, we can't take a chance on losing him. Wish there was an easy way to confirm his claim ...

So ... just gonna do this cause I'm getting tired (it's almost 2 am):

Vote: Waker

[Loaf]

Vote: Worge

He keeps claiming that his win condition is to lynch Lysah, and even if that's not true, he still hasn't added anything.

- - - Updated - - -

Totally forgot to bold, my bad.

Vote: Worge

what is there to add? I don't give a damn about any of the other things going on b/c I'm trying to get my win condition fulfilled.

[Xanjori]

The more of the thread I read the more I am convinced that Danner isnt a Vigi. However on the mafia front, if we are to say he is mafia that would imply that they get to choose between either kill or recruit and last night they hit the kill button on Anakso. I don't believe he can be directly tied to mafia, it doesn't make sense to me that they'd risk a kill on so little information and take out a traitor by mistake.

I believe he is either the vigi or the SK, in lore sense I can't see a vigi existing in this society (from what we've been told about it.) Everything is an SK.

I also don't like the random votes coming out here, the Worgenite vote I half understand, but you must be hoping for a lot of momentum. The Waker vote makes a lot less sense, it looks like you are trying to avoid the issue. Imo when TPRs are on the table town should focus on them, theyre the elephant in the room! If you want to swing votes another way because you believe the TPR claim then make a good argument for it.

Would mafians attempt to avoid voting on this in case he turns up Vigi it gives them a clean spot on their record?

Vote: Danner

I just don't believe the vigi claim and see an SK as more likely.

[Danner]

Then I do not believe there is anything more I can say to change the inevitable outcome.
Well played, folks. Well played. I have underestimated your willingness to get me dead.

Death talk.
I believe Worgenite's claim. It's just outlandish enough.
I believe Falbacca is town. Good efforts today.
I believe Krayzy is a 3rd party faction. He's far far too cautious this game.
I believe Decagon is one of the few sane players around. Don't worry Deca, unlike the Kopcap debacle, you won't be in trouble for having defended me.
I believe Celtic is playing to see me dead. Combine that with Worgenite's claim. Doesn't mean he's scum. But he's not playing for town.
I believe Virothe is scum. That logic is hogwash, and he knows it.
I am really uncertain about Kel. A+ for effort, F- for logic.
I believe PistolPink is town... for now.
I believe Blood Fox is town. Scumhunting is good.
I believe Xanjori is town. Scumhunting is good.
I believe Foxxi is scum. On the block of people hellbent to lynch me, reason be damned.
I believe everyone else is playing seriously anti-town, and needs to die.

And for the love of furry kittens - if I do turn up as a traitor, know that this game is bastardized to death. Traitors do not night kill people, you hear!
I will be here to answer questions, but at this point there is no point in dragging the day out. Vig out.

[Kisuro]

After a too short a night's sleep I decided that I'm not buying Danner's defense, and after each of his posts i believe he is a vigi less and less. Also, the "If I were conformed SK, I would just give up" argument has rubbed me the wrong way.
As such

vote: Danner

[kel]

I believe everyone else is playing seriously anti-town, and needs to die.

But youre not on that list!!

vote danner

I would like, totally not vote for you but looks like the town has spoken and I dont really know who to go for next.

[listo95]

You hurt me Danner, saying I'm playing anti-town! I always play this way during the 1st 1-3 days, seeing what is said, sometimes giving my thoughts but staying more in the background. After that though I will normally be more useful. But... what makes you think I'm anti-town!?!?!?

[Virothe]

Then I do not believe there is anything more I can say to change the inevitable outcome.
Well played, folks. Well played. I have underestimated your willingness to get me dead.

Death talk.

I believe Virothe is scum. That logic is hogwash, and he knows it.

The logic that you should have chose not to kill randomly because you could have just as likely hit town? Or the logic that you are just as much a danger to town as you are to scum?
If this was later in the game and scum had a few more losses I would be all for gambling on controlling your kill. But this early on and with the majority of scum still alive you're just as likely to be controlled by them as you are by town.
As I see it now there are three choices:

1. ) Let Danner live and let him have full control of his kill (Not good we have no known way to confirm he is a vigi, but if he is at least scum wouldn't control the kill)

2. ) Attempt to control Danners Nk as a group. (Not good, there are a lot of scum still alive, plus again no known way to confirm his roll)

3. ) We lynch him. (The safest option, sorry man but it's true)

So following that logic

Vote: Danner

[Deleted]

Danner, it is funny that you mention Krayzy being too cautious. I kinda realized that his no lynch vote was insanely out of character for him to do. Last game, he berated town, and me in particular, because people were being too shy with their votes. Too scared. That people were just stalling the game and making it boring. That the entire idea that people wont vote late because it'll make them look bad is stupid, because it's anti-town. And the he goes and does the same thing last gameday, claiming that his vote wont change anything anyways. Well it would have. It would have prevented a couple of hours of nothing.

I was actually going to bring it up before all the claims happened, but I was a bit slow. And now it seems insanely vague in comparison. But, yea, here, have another person to look into.

[Dyra]

I've just clawed my way back to health and consciousness again. Sorry about that. I'm also limited to my mobile phone this coming week which I hope isn't going to be too much of an issue, but it is going to heavily curtail when I can post.

So to start with the night results. Not sure if I should be paranoid enough to wonder if Anakso was attacked to try to put me in a bad light. And only one NK? I was not expecting that at all. Given that this is two families of elves where backstabbing, double dealing and out and out murder is commonplace anyway.... I was suspecting a Mafia team (with Consigliere ^_^), probably a Vigilante (well House Dana'thal isn't going to take their looming destruction lying down are they?) and certainly a SK (a lower ranked member of the family, maybe taking their opportunity to act on their hate?). That's not even counting the possibility of the Lloth clergy (potentially Masons in this scenario?) who might be dissatisfied with House Malin and seek to have them toppled from power in favour of a new ruling house, or even an unknown family trying to take advantage of the chaos (single SK alternative possibility). Either way, from a race where violence and murder are day to day occurrences. There really should have been more than 1. However, now I think about it, would the high ranking members of the family want to go out and risk themselves? No they certainly would not! They would get others to do it for them. However, they would not want to reduce their own family size in doing so, so bringing in others i.e. those of the family they're currently trying to destroy is the perfect solution! ^_^ I wonder if they have 100% chance to kill?

As for Kopcap turning up Traitor... In hindsight that really should have been considered with the Miller claim. The probability of a high proportion of Traitors had already been discussed, and with his Miller claim, if he hadn't been lynched because of it, he would have been the perfect recruit. Someone who would definitely come up as Scum if investigated, but already had a solid claim to why on the table, as well as bringing a large amount of game knowledge too. Did Danner recognise this ploy, so tried to divert the lynch away from him in the hopes of recruiting?

Onto day. Now, if Robozerim hasn't been completely bullshitting us, and he doesn't seem to have been given Danner has admitted he did visit Ana and role claimed in turn. Tracker role seems to fit the elf type, but tbh, since Drow, if he was close to follow undetected, he was close enough to shoot him with poison. So, Danner. Curious. Claimed Vigi and a Draegloth. Now Draegloth (I read) are the result of an unholy union between a Lloth priestess and a demon creature (glabrezu *shrug*) further reading says that they will automatically defer to the 'most powerful female' and that a named one acts as a body guard. Which to me says that Draegloth would be more likely to attack on command than it would to pick and choose a target of his own free will. So from that I don't think the role entirely fits. However, Danner's plan (such as it was...) does have a ring of truth to it.

Going to read further into the thread (since this is already a large post) and think some more.

Uggor promised us an unbastardised game, and I'm gullible hopeful enough to be believing him.

- - - Updated - - -

I believe Worgenite's claim. It's just outlandish enough.

Part of me does want to believe him too. A theory is that Worgenite is a Consigliere and Lysah his God. ^_^ We lynch Lysah, he's won, though whether or not he has to survive to actually make it a 100% win I don't know. She can't make a rebuttal about it since that'll expose the pair of them, and get them both lynched. Odd theory, but it's perfectly within Worgie's usual play style. Though knowing us, all he really had to do was play the waiting game, and we'd lynch her anyway.

Or better yet, they're Siblings! Only instead of dying together if one is killed, one has to get the other killed in true Drow fashion. ^_^

In either scenario, I think lynching Worgie would be the right thing to do, to see what results we get to decide if Lysah is then to be lynched.

Danner, it is funny that you mention Krayzy being too cautious. I kinda realized that his no lynch vote was insanely out of character for him to do. Last game, he berated town, and me in particular, because people were being too shy with their votes. Too scared. That people were just stalling the game and making it boring. That the entire idea that people wont vote late because it'll make them look bad is stupid, because it's anti-town. And the he goes and does the same thing last gameday, claiming that his vote wont change anything anyways. Well it would have. It would have prevented a couple of hours of nothing.

I was actually going to bring it up before all the claims happened, but I was a bit slow. And now it seems insanely vague in comparison. But, yea, here, have another person to look into.

A good point. Though D1 is a day where lots should be happening regardless, though his no-lynch shouldn't have held up the game.

Still going and deciding on Danner.