Will one of the upcoming MMO's take # 1 spot from Blizz eventually?

[Ronduwil]

I doubt it. MMOs came and went. Blizzard made the right game at the right time but now the genre as a whole is saturated, and the game is surviving on inertia.

[Tyraena]

The trick, really is to develop a game with enough hooks to keep you interested, while being different enough from WoW to not constantly make you think you can go back to WoW and get the same gameplay and game-style as your new game, only more comfortably.

As long as competing games are close to WoW in terms of basic gameplay and behavior, people will gravitate back towards the "best-fit" of available games for them, or opt-out entirely. A new MMO has to provide all of the various "hooks" i.e. sub-activities AND an interesting and fun primary base level of gameplay, while at the same time being different enough from WoW and the rest of the MMO community that once you get into it, there isn't an easy way to go back.

THAT game has a chance of dethroning WoW.

This list - not so much.

[therayeffect]

The trick, really is to develop a game with enough hooks to keep you interested, while being different enough from WoW to not constantly make you think you can go back to WoW and get the same gameplay and game-style as your new game, only more comfortably.

As long as competing games are close to WoW in terms of basic gameplay and behavior, people will gravitate back towards the "best-fit" of available games for them, or opt-out entirely. A new MMO has to provide all of the various "hooks" i.e. sub-activities AND an interesting and fun primary base level of gameplay, while at the same time being different enough from WoW and the rest of the MMO community that once you get into it, there isn't an easy way to go back.

THAT game has a chance of dethroning WoW.

This list - not so much.

Yea, I played Tera and it's honestly quite different from WoW but it lacks so hard in endgame compared to WoW. If I could take the leveling/combat of Tera and combine it with WoW's endgame, we'd have a really fun MMO. It just doesn't seem that companies can do better than WoW and that's really sad. Nearly 10 years and WoW's endgame is still head and shoulders above the rest.

[Frozen Death Knight]

No worries, WoW's honor is still intact and it has plenty going for it. All I'm saying is that it is unfair to categorize GW2 as a failure (as was done beforehand) because it has not in the space of one year surpassed the behemoth that is WoW. GW2 is the fastest growing game and its active player base has been steadily growing since launch, which is definitely impressive and something to be proud of. Just to put things in perspective, if recent trends continue, GW2 and WoW might be comparable in active player base by this time next year...

Oh, I am not belittling the game. I agree that it is not a failure by any stretch. It still isn't on the scale of WoW, though. I like to keep things grounded just so that once something truly spectacular happens, you have a good reason to get blown away.

Let's see if they can keep a consistent growth then. My guess is it probably will not, but it's possible to be proven wrong, so not going to carve my words in stone.

[jadedfuture]

Elder Scrolls Online makes my blood pressure high. And even worse, is how many people pray to it because it's an Elder Scrolls game. Elder Scrolls should've stayed a single player game. You cannot turn ES concepts into an MMO, and to the people who purchase it, give it high & mighty reviews for the first few months (*cough angry joe with GW2 cough*) then watch it slowly dissipate, I will feel sorry for you.

Wild Star looks kinda promising. Kinda. And to the people saying it's "childish", ask yourself if Ratchet & Clank was childish.
EQNext looks like P2P Neverwinter with a better graphics engine. I hope they add some sort of raiding because then I'll actually be compelled to try it out. The whole 'voxels' gimmick is old.
Phantasy lol
Game of Thrones, as much as I love the show, will probably crash and die.

I'm playing FFXIV right now and it's pretty boring. I don't know what game to play because most of them are pretty terribad at the moment.

MMOs at the moment are booooooooring.

[Sharuko]

No worries, WoW's honor is still intact and it has plenty going for it. All I'm saying is that it is unfair to categorize GW2 as a failure (as was done beforehand) because it has not in the space of one year surpassed the behemoth that is WoW. GW2 is the fastest growing game and its active player base has been steadily growing since launch, which is definitely impressive and something to be proud of. Just to put things in perspective, if recent trends continue, GW2 and WoW might be comparable in active player base by this time next year...

This is total hogwash that is as far from the truth as possible. GW2 failed, it is only making slightly higher revenue than Eve and Eve is a niche game. WoW makes more money in one month (Sept '12) than GW2 made in its lifetime.

Per all the stats we have available GW2 saw just a massive of a decline as other MMOs. Per Xfire, it lost 95% of its player base since launch. Per Raptr, is is the 4th most played MMO after WoW, FFXIV and Rift (with SWTOR very close to it). If you go to sPvP during primetime there are about 200 players across all server during primetime. Half of their servers are completely dead. When I mean dead, I mean there are no more than 80-100 people logged in at the same time. If you want sources and more than half a dozen more please ask. I personally would be shocked if GW2 has more than 100k active players. And I guarantee you this November's sales call shows another 20% drop in sales (which will be 80%+ drop since launch)

No MMO is growing in this market, not even WoW. MMOs don't have time to grow. You don't do well at launch you will be trampled. When the next MMOs come out like ESO, WildStar, WoW expansion all the older MMOs will lose more players. GW2 was a non-factor 2 months after launch, it will be forgotten by Spring of next year. I think its cute that you actually thought it was growing. Nice try.

As for me, I do think ESO and WildStar will be good MMOs. I personally will play both of them. I was hoping that the WoW expansion was Azshara related so I could skip it and focus on ESO and WildStar. But if it is WoD, I will have to try it.

[Jtbrig7390]

This is total hogwash that is as far from the truth as possible. GW2 failed, it is only making slightly higher revenue than Eve.

I stopped here because thats Info you DO NOT HAVE. Anet has never reported the revenue of Guild Wars 2 but what we do know is dam near 100% of the time US Servers sit at High to very High in Pop and EU servers mix from Medium/High/Very High even at odd times like 4am.

No MMO is growing in this market, not even WoW. MMOs don't have time to grow

Both Guild Wars 2 and EvE prove your wrong. Both have reported to have groth and EvE has made so much money the company made Dust 514 Eve for the Ps3 and in a video about Dust they even said there player base has been growing.

Please provide links to back up all your statements because I'm calling bullshit on it. The only thing u said that was right was WOW is not growing at all but here is something you and many others fail to realise. It is a lot easy'er for a MMO that has 500k-3 million players to grow in playerbase then a mmo that has/had 7million+.

If Guild Wars 2 was failing they would not be putting out new content every 2-3 weeks. Anet did just fine with Guild Wars 1 that came out right before WOW and they will do just fine with Guild Wars 2 as well.

[Sharuko]

I stopped ere because thats Info you DO NOT HAVE. Anet has never reported the revenue of Guild Wars 2 but what we do know is dam near 100% of the time US Servers sit at High to very High in Pop and EU servers mix from Medium/High/Very High even at odd times like 4am.

What? They have, here you go:

http://www.ncsoft.net/global/ir/earnings.aspx

Page 10: Arenanet made about 11.5 million dollars in revenue in Q2 '13 (it is listed in Korean Won in the Millions, I converted it to US Dollars). That is less than what Eve makes. "Low" and "High" mean nothing in GW2 as it is tied to accounts on the server. Players could have quit a year ago and they still log their data. Which is why you will see dozens of threads from servers like HoD and ET that ask for Arenanet to merge servers.

Please provide links to back up all your statements because I'm calling bullshit on it. The only thing u said that was right was WOW is not growing at all but here is something you and many others fail to realise. It is a lot easy'er for a MMO that has 500k-3 million players to grow in playerbase then a mmo that has/had 7million+

Raptr:

http://raptr.com/dashboard/games

4th highest played MMO. It is not even in the Top 3.

Xfire:

Weekly hours played at launch for GW2 = 92,946
Weekly hours played for GW2 today = 4,401

More than a 90% drop.

Go to the Mists, and open up the PvP browser, go ahead and count the players. There are about 200 players across all players during peak time. F2P crappy Chinese games have more players in PvP than that.

If you want I can paste more than 30 threads in the last 2 weeks asking to merge their dead servers. And more, just ask.

If Guild Wars 2 was failing they would not be putting out new content every 2-3 weeks. Anet did just fine with Guild Wars 1 that came out right before WOW and they will do just fine with Guild Wars 2 as well.

Putting out bad mini-game content updates that bring nothing to the world, which the majority of players seem like they don't like is not "content". I mean they don't even have resources to release armor models in the game. They still haven't released and armor model after launch that you can't buy in the cash shop. They are slowly dying and even Chinese release won't save them.

GW2 "growing" lol. It followed the same trajectory as SWTOR. Massive launch, massive decline.

[Chain Chungus]

It will happen eventually and could have already but the previous games had devs that made bad decisions.

I wouldn't attempt to predict which one or when it will happen though.

[ro9ue]

I still think there is value in a persistent online world but no current MMO has a fun gameplay model imo. EQN looks the most promising, but my hard drive has seen many, many great-looking MMOs come and go. The only one that is constant is WoW.

[Kuthe]

Nope.
They will all get 2-3ish mill subs tops, and then die off.
MMO's as a whole are dying. It's impossible to create a new one that people will abandon all their time in WoW for.

[Chingylol]

The only ones on that list that have a chance to even come within 1/2 of Wow's current player base is Everquest Next or Elder Scrolls. Wildstar is just way too cartoony, much more then WoW.

[Jtbrig7390]

What? They have, here you go:

http://www.ncsoft.net/global/ir/earnings.aspx

Page 10: Arenanet made about 11.5 million dollars in revenue in Q2 '13. That is less than what Eve makes.

Never seen that report so my fault but all you did was prove a sub base game makes more then a b2p game.

Raptr:

http://raptr.com/dashboard/games

4th highest played MMO. It is not even in the Top 3.

Xfire:

Weekly hours played at launch for GW2 = 92,946
Weekly hours played for GW2 today = 4,401

First off Raptr only counts those who are using it and there is a ton of people who don't and second Xfire has been useless for quite sometime as well.

Anet reported just a couple weeks ago it just hit 3.5 million sells with 460k players at peak hours.
http://www.vg247.com/2013/08/28/guil...illion-copies/

So much has happened in the past twelve months that sometimes it’s hard for me to believe that it was just one year ago today that we launched Guild Wars 2”, wrote ArenaNet president Mike O’Brien in a blog post today.

“If you haven’t joined us yet, there’s never been a better time. Whether you’d rather wage war in epic battles with hundreds of players, test your skills against fellow players in our competitive PvP scene, or just explore a vast world that offers new surprises every time you log in, I invite you to check out Guild Wars 2 today”.

According to the information posted in the graphic, the game has sold 3.5 million copies and has had 460,000 peak concurrent users.

The pop will grow even more one it officially release's in China like they plan to so that alone proves you are wrong about guild wars 2 being a fail.

People like you need to realise you do not need 5 million+ subs or even just 5 million+ playerbase to be a successful. All a MMO needs to be successful is to have a player base make back the money they put in along with more money to provide content/patch fix's and to pay for severs and the people working for them. Guild Wars 2 has been doing this and there is no signs of it changing anytime soon.

I do find it funny you brag about a P2P MMO with 500k players is making more money then a B2p MMO that at peak has around 460k.......

- - - Updated - - -

Nope.
They will all get 2-3ish mill subs tops, and then die off.
MMO's as a whole are dying. It's impossible to create a new one that people will abandon all their time in WoW for.

Kinda why I do have high hopes for EQN because it dose finally seem like a company is giving us a real sandbox MMO and is taking chances. The last real Sandbox MMO was SWG and sadly I never got to play it but my brother and his GF did. I have been wanting a sandbox mmo for quite sometime in a realm I know.

Personally if EQN dose half of what they say it will do ill be happy.

[Winterstrife]

Out of all the options. I think Elder Scrolls Online have the potential not to dethrone but probably share the top spot with WoW.
I'm a big fan of the Elder Scrolls series as much as the Warcraft series. I'm definitely going to be play ES:O alongside WoW when it releases.

[Sharuko]

Never seen that report so my fault but all you did was prove a sub base game makes more then a b2p game.

B2P is not an excuse, because even SWTOR makes double that.

First off Raptr only counts those who are using it and there is a ton of people who don't and second Xfire has been useless for quite sometime as well.

Fine, don't use that. Then log into the Mists and see how many players there are in sPvP, about 200 across all servers. Those are generally pathetic numbers.

Anet reported just a couple weeks ago it just hit 3.5 million sells with 460k players at peak hours

Box sales mean NOTHING in MMOs. Even SWTOR sold 3 million copies. In MMOs if you want to succeed you have to retain players. And just like SWTOR, GW2 had terrible retention, it was so bad they had to change the direction of the game to included massive grinds that had vertical progression.

Also, the "concurrent" figure was at launch. They are lucky to have 80k players concurrent today. I would guess somewhere around 50k.

People like you need to realise you do not need 5 million+ subs or even just 5 million+ playerbase to be a successful. All a MMO needs to be successful is to have a player base make back the money they put in along with more money to provide content/patch fix's and to pay for severs and the people working for them. Guild Wars 2 has been doing this and there is no signs of it changing anytime soon.

I do find it funny you brag about a P2P MMO with 500k players is making more money then a B2p MMO that at peak has around 460k.......

You can have 100k and be successful. That is not my point, my point is stop lying about growth when that is further than the truth. I played on GoM and that server is dead, you won't see more than 25 people in Lion's Arch at any time. Don't believe me? Go guest there.

GW2 was a massive failure and is still failing, there is no hope in sight. And NCSoft has given up on them, they will not fund a GW2 expansion. GW2 is on the back burner and WildStar is their new baby. And expansion might have helped that horrible population problems, but there is no expansion in sight and the game is about to get trampled by the plethora of MMOs coming out next year.

[torterra275]

Only one that has a shot is Titan.

Only Blizzard and kill WoW, and Titan would be Blizzard made. All of those titles (imo) are overhyped and/or have little information regarding them seeming mysterious, thats the only reason most of them appear to be a threat.

[Jtbrig7390]

B2P is not an excuse, because even SWTOR makes double that.



Fine, don't use that. Then log into the Mists and see how many players there are in sPvP, about 200 across all servers.

First off comparing player's who are in spvp to Pve/WvW is just outright stupid and second SWTOR is not a B2p MMO its a P2p with a extended free trial. To do any endgame at all you must pay 15$ a month.

that is not my point, my point is stop lying about growth when that is further than the truth. I played on GoM and that server is dead, you won't see more than 25 people in Lion's Arch at any time. Don't believe me? Go guest there.

Just did seems active to me and you have nothing that proves that GW2 isn't growing at all when I got anet's report of its sells and active player base and how high in pop each server is.....just give it a rest until you have hard proof just don't reply to me.

I really do love tho how your using Spvp to defend your bullshit clam.

[Duito]

Probably not truthfully speaking...many games have tried and failed and it will keep happening again and again until World of warcraft is on its last expansion

[lawow74]

I don't think any single MMO will ever topple WoW as long as WoW remains a living game. It stops making new content, it'll get overtaken pretty quickly. This presumes WoW's time as a still-developed franchise only lasts a few more years. On a long enough timeline of releases, it's bound to be overtaken by something else.

[Sharuko]

Just did seems active to me and you have nothing that proves that GW2 isn't growing at all when I got anet's report of its sells and active player base and how high in pop each server is.....just give it a rest until you have hard proof just don't reply to me.

Off course all the data doesn't matter. Funny how you have no source to back up "growth".

Traffic data for GW2.com
Traffic data for Guildwars2guru.com
Traffic data for GW2 subreddit
Xfire
Raptr
Twitch viewership
Sales from NCSoft's official earnings releases
Viewership for GW2 Youtube Channnels like Dontain and WoodenPotatoes
Even NCSoft's stock price

All of those sources have one thing in common, a 80% to 90% drop since launch, it isn't just "sPvP". That is better that the "nothing" you provide.