Warlords of Draenor Release Date

[fenixazul]

June - July 2014

[Jessicka]

Hopefully before Christmas this year. This tier hasn't got enough content to last beyond that without haemorraging subs.

[killidan]

Game-------------------------------------------------Release Date

Classic WoW------------------------------------> November 24th 2004
Burning Crusade-------------------------------> January 16th 2007
Wrath Of The Lich King-----------------------> November 13th 2008
Cataclysm---------------------------------------> December 7th 2010
Mists of Pandaria------------------------------> September 25th 2012
Expansion 5 (Warlords of Draenor???!?)---------->2014????


When will World of Warcraft Expansion pack 5 be released?

November 2014

[Daetur]

No one looked at the clues that I kept pointing out like the new ilvl 470 Brewfest items and Hallow's End items. I kept saying that is a clue that Blizzard is aiming for pre-Brewfest release and those people kept telling me I was crazy, they would NEVER release so close to the start of the school term (even though less than 25% of players are under 21 years old) and it would be released at Christmas to maximize sales for gifts to kids... O.o So it seems they are coming back around...

You and I were both extremely close to the Mists release date with our predictions in 2012. Looks like it's time to get to work again.

The longest an expansion has ever lasted was 25 months, and the average expansion duration is 23 months. Blizzard has stated they they are aiming for shorter expansions and patch cycles than in Wrath and Cata. They also stated that Siege of Orgrimmar would be the last raid of the expansion. This means we can probably expect a 5.5 patch with additional lore content to help extend the expansion, but they don't want us to be raiding SoO for 12 months-- personally, I think we're going to be raiding it more like 8-10, and here's why.

Last spring, I predicted Mists' release date within one week of the actual date, several months before it was announced, so I think I've shown that I've been able to come up with reasonable launch estimates in the past. While I do not have as much information to work with in regards to the next expansion, here is a compilation of some information and patterns from previous expansion releases and previous Blizzard games, from which we can try to guess a probable release window:


Beta start date to release:

Burning Crusade closed Beta started in early October 2006, and it was released 3 months later, on January 16, 2007.
Wrath of the Lich King started its closed Beta on July 17th, 2008. It was released on November 13, 2008: 4 months later.
Cataclysm Beta testing began at the very end of June, 2010. It was released on December 7th, 2010-- 5 months later.
Mists of Pandaria Beta started March 20th, 2012. It was released September 25th, 2012, 6 months later. It skipped the Friends and Family alpha phase, possibly resulting in an abnormally long Beta duration.

I don't feel comfortable comparing expansion betas with the original Warcraft beta, or with the SC2/D3 betas, because those were for full games, not expansions, and in the case of SC2 and D3, completely different development teams and completely different games.

The Beta test for the next expansion will probably be between 5 and 7 months-- 5 months if the "extra" month on Mist's beta was due to a lack of Friends and Family Alpha, and 7 months if we assume that the beta for the next expansion will fit the "pattern" of the duration of the beta taking an additional month each time. Assuming it starts shortly after Blizzcon, the beta should end between April and June 2014, with a release following immediately afterwards.



Official Expansion Reveal at Blizzcon:

Simply that every single World of Warcraft expansion has been revealed at and has been a major feature of a Blizzcon. It is very reasonable to expect the same of the next expansion.

Time Between Announcement and Release:

Burning Crusade was announced on October 28th, 2005. It was released 15 months later.
Wrath of the Lich King was announced on Augus 3rd, 2007. It was released 14 months later.
Cataclsym was announced on August 21st, 2009. It was released 15 months later.
Mists was announced on October 21st, 2001. It was released 11 months later.

Assuming that the new expansion will fall within this wide window- 11-15 months from announcement, and it is announced at Blizzcon in November, it will be released some time between October 2014 and February 2015.

However, it is important to notice that Mists was announced a full four months closer to its release than previous expansions, and it is very, very reasonable to expect 6.0 to cut down that window even further with Blizzard's stated intent and interest in trying to shorten the wait between expansions, along with the return of developers from the Titan project.

Expansion Durations:

Burning Crusade lasted 22 months from its release to Wrath of the Lich King's release.
Wrath of the Lich King lasted 25 months from its release to Cataclysm's release.
Cataclysm lasted 21 months from its release to Mists of Pandaria's release
Mists has only been out for about 13 months as of this writing. Assuming that it will last a similar duration to Cataclysm/Burning Crusade or shorter, we should see the next expansion in spring or summer 2014 (sometime between April at the earliest, August at the latest).

Final Tier Durations:
Naxxramas in Classic lasted 8 months.
Sunwell Plateau lasted 8 months.
ICC lasted exactly 12 months.
Dragon Soul lasted 9 months.

I would assume that Blizzard is shooting for their 8-9 month final tier duration with SoO, since ICC is the only outlier. If we assume they achieve their target window of 8-9 month duration of SoO, we will see the next expansion around April or May 2014.


In Conclusion:
When looking at all of the pattens as a whole in order to attempt to predict a release date, we see a very, very wide window of April 2014 through February 2015.

However, when you take into the account that only one of the patterns implies a release date later than August 2014, while multiple patterns point to, in particular, April-June 2014, I would expect the next expansion to be released closer to May-July 2014. Keep in mind that every single expansion so far has deviated in some way from the precedent sat by previous expansions-- Mists's beta was unusually long and lacked a F&F Alpha, Cataclysm took an unusually long time to release in relation to the previous expansion's final tier, the Lich King trademark wasn't revealed until a few days before it's official unveiling, etc. So, while we can look at all of these patterns and try to make educated guesses, nothing says that it's going to be 100% accurate.

My reasonable estimate for a release date for 6.0 is May or June 2014. Anything after September 2014 is completely out of the question based on the duration of every single past expansion and final tier length. If you think it's going to be released any time after September 2014, I'm sorry, but you're either crazy or not thinking critically at all.

[Treeba]

My reasonable estimate for a release date for 6.0 is May or June 2014. Anything after September 2014 is completely out of the question based on the duration of every single past expansion and final tier length. If you think it's going to be released any time after September 2014, I'm sorry, but you're either crazy or not thinking critically at all.

For 6.0 or the actual expansion? I could see 6.0 being here as early as March, but will probably be in April.

I can't see the actual expansion being any later than late June with all these new people on the team. Still holding out for late May (20th - 27th), but I do think late April is possible. I suspect beta will start in January, but it's entirely possible it will start this year.

[Daetur]

For 6.0 or the actual expansion? I could see 6.0 being here as early as March, but will probably be in April.

I can't see the actual expansion being any later than late June with all these new people on the team. Still holding out for late May (20th - 27th), but I do think late April is possible. I suspect beta will start in January, but it's entirely possible it will start this year.

Well, the actual expansion. Until they officially unveil it at Blizzcon and give us the name (rather than just the very likely but not 100% confirmed trademark we have right now), I'm just referring to it as "6.0."

Technically, I suppose, the expansion release should be "6.0.1."

[Treeba]

Ah, gotcha. I wasn't trying to nitpick. I just tend to think of it more in terms of the pre-expansion systems patch and then the expansion itself.

[Gothicshark]

When will World of Warcraft Expansion pack 5 be released?

Missed a few Dates of Importance.

Warcraft Game Release Dates

Game Name	Release date	Distance from 23 November
Warcraft: Orcs & Humans [td]23-Nov-94	0
Warcraft II: Tides of Darkness	25-Sep-12	59
Warcraft II: Beyond the Dark Portal	30-Apr-96	158
Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos	3-Jul-02	143
Warcraft III: The Frozen Throne	July 1, 2003	145
World of Warcraft	November 24th 2004	1
World of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade	January 16th 2007	54
World of Warcraft: Wrath Of The Lich King	November 13th 2008	10
World of Warcraft: Cataclysm	December 7th 2010	14
World of Warcraft: Mists of Pandaria	September 25th 2012	59
World of Warcraft: 6.0	?	?
Warcraft Median Release Date	23 November	+-58 days

[Daetur]

Ah, gotcha. I wasn't trying to nitpick. I just tend to think of it more in terms of the pre-expansion systems patch and then the expansion itself.

Oh, it's no problem. I wasn't really thinking about it too much myself!

[Lilija]

I wouldn't expect it before August 2014. Most likely September or November or even later date.

[Bristae]

You and I were both extremely close to the Mists release date with our predictions in 2012. Looks like it's time to get to work again.
My reasonable estimate for a release date for 6.0 is May or June 2014. Anything after September 2014 is completely out of the question based on the duration of every single past expansion and final tier length. If you think it's going to be released any time after September 2014, I'm sorry, but you're either crazy or not thinking critically at all.

Very good write up there Daetur! Sadly, like before, no one will listen to it nor believe it..
There is a couple small points you missed that I think were very important to note about the MoP Beta cycle.

1) They had to cycle a lot of people into it due to the annual pass. This added some, not much, extra time.
2) They closed Jade Forest halfway through the beta cycle to revamp it completely. This added A LOT of extra time to the beta cycle that would had not been there otherwise.

Your estimation of seeing the 6.0 pre-patch April-June 2014 I think is sound. the pre-patch launches about 30 days before Expansion drops, so that puts expansion launch May-July 2014. Spot on I think.

I believe we are going to see a beta announcement on Friday or Saturday. Beta might start before the end of the year. They are stopping the F&F alphas I think. I know in the past they had issues with security and leaks from them.

- - - Updated - - -

I wouldn't expect it before August 2014. Most likely September or November or even later date.

nah too late.. That would put it 24-25 months after last expansion. They are moving for 18-20 months. The speed and quality of the patches of MoP shows that they can do it. They have proven it.

[blackblade]

Game-------------------------------------------------Release Date

Classic WoW------------------------------------> November 24th 2004
Burning Crusade-------------------------------> January 16th 2007
Wrath Of The Lich King-----------------------> November 13th 2008
Cataclysm---------------------------------------> December 7th 2010
Mists of Pandaria------------------------------> September 25th 2012
Expansion 5 (Warlords of Draenor???!?)---------->2014????


When will World of Warcraft Expansion pack 5 be released?

Around the same time as either Wildstar or TESO.

[Rooskie1993]

I like how ICC lasted 12 months but DS lasted 9 and felt so much longer and boring, I would've loved to keep raiding ICC even though it was out for 12 months lol.

[Treeba]

nah too late.. That would put it 24-25 months after last expansion. They are moving for 18-20 months. The speed and quality of the patches of MoP shows that they can do it. They have proven it.

Getting a patch out on time and getting an expansion out on time are very different things. I'm not doubting or hating on Blizzard here, but let's not say they've proven it until they prove it.

I'm in the same camp timewise as you two. I think its very reasonable to expect 6.0 and/or the expansion itself in the April - June (or maybe July) time frame. That being said, let's just remember who we're talking about here. I'm also willing to bet we'll see some form of annual pass this time around.

[Deleted]

The all-mighty release plan says this december.

[Daetur]

The all-mighty release plan says this december.

That's December 2013, hon. There's no way.

[dercaderca]

December 2nd, 2014

SoO for more than 14 months? I think not. Blizzard would lose their asses.

[Bristae]

The all-mighty release plan says this december.

So how was the Warcraft movie?? according to that... That came out last quarter of 2012... oh hey!!! Titan is coming this quarter too!!! WOOHOO!!!! Crpa i missed the Diablo 3 expansion!!! but no worries!!! the next one is coming next year! I need to get Legacy of the Void too!

[Arbs]

That's December 2013, hon. There's no way.

Wait didn't that because non viable anymore as some things got pushed back & didn't release when suppose too.

[Deleted]

For financial reasons, it needs to be released no later than 2nd quarter 2014. If they let MoP linger into late 2014, at the rate subs are continuing to drop... dunno. Their cash savings is mostly gone if I understand it correctly, due to that deal that went down with Vivendi and the board. They certainly make more than enough in sub fees (we think, anyway) to continue the product, but they can't continue losing 10-20 percent of the subscriber base per quarter for long (they lost 14% in Q1's March figures, about 10% second quarter, and as of June was down to 7.7m subs from a high of over 12m subs - or about a 30% crash from the high mark; an analyst in September announced that WoW's revenue was 93m in April 2013, down from 204m seven months earlier - that is a HUGE drop). And we don't yet know how many they lost 3rd quarter.

They pulled a pile of devs off Titan about six months ago and moved them to WoW, adding them to the existing WoW team that developed MoP. I suppose it's possible they could get it done by spring, with the bigger development staff. They really NEED to get it done.

Everyone's all jacked up over Blizzcon and the xpac "leaks" and all that... meanwhile the 3rd Quarter Results are going to be released on Wednesday November 6, two days before Blizzcon, after market close. As of the end Q2 they were down 1.9m subs for the year.

There's more to it though. I heard the Devs that moved over from Titan to WoW had been Devs working on Vanilla and TBC, that got moved to Titan when they started the Project. So if that rumor is true they also didn't move over random Devs but Devs that already had experience in WoW and Experience with the Perfect Gameplay Experience we had back then. Which would also justify Blizz hiding the Title until possibly 1 Week before BlizzCon. They're probably coming up with something big and groundbreaking. They need to.