Statistics are created from data. The data may be pure, but the statistics are skewed.
If you want to compare the specs, compare the data. Do DPET & regression testing for the three specs.
You can't go by sims, because sims actually put frost ahead. Hell, look at this: http://www.wowprogress.com/simdps/us...ge/class.mage/
You honestly think that's accurate?
So how about raidbots, let's take a simple fight like Malkorok. I pick Malkorok because there won't be log-range issues, no special tasks, no alternate realms, no advantage to any spec, as any of the 3 specs can do the mechanics with minimal sacrifice to rotational function.
Arcane: a well timed Arc. Barr. would cleave onto adds nicely, could inflate #'s slightly with multidot
Fire: a well timed Combustion could inflate #'s slightly
Frost: a well timed Frozen Orb & icicle cleave could inflate #'s slightly
Pretty even advantages so let's begin some analysis:
Going to get the top 5 parses from US/EU and strike out the outliers. Why top 5? Well, I think your goal here is to know what's "best" right?
1 Мишарики DPSe: 441519 Time: 04:53
Drjayfisto DPSe: 429776 Time: 4:47 - Received Tricks
2 Natubob DPSe: 423190 Time: 4:30
3 Adamas DPSe: 414621 Time: 4:40
4 Pete DPSe: 414621 Time: 5:02
Feylaa DPSe: 411877 Time: 5:28 - Received Tricks
5 Xiaozhii DPSe: 411531 Time: 4:49
Jamiex DPSe: 558779 Time: 0:52 - Bogus parse
Runlikêhell DPSe: 480081 Time: 4:19 - Received Tricks
1 Karqon DPSe: 448802 Time: 4:32
2 Milks DPSe: 447131 Time: 4:23
3 Orby DPSe: 446829 Time: 4:11
4 Sfougz DPSe: 439730 Time: 4:24
Paybax DPSe: 430785 Time: 5:08 - Received Tricks
5 Dewgong DPSe: 429128 Time: 4:53
Fire mages are in better guilds statistically and appear to have better kill times. So let's calculate how much DPS(e) per second they did. So let's find the average Malkorok kill time for all the 10 frost and fire mages, and normalize each fight to that duration and see how it impacts DPSe.
Duration / AvgDuration = Norm.DPS / DPSe
So the new rank list becomes:
If each of them had a fight length of 4 minutes 37 seconds
1. Мишарики 467022
2. Pete 452042
3. Xiaozhii 429359
4. Adamas 419112
5. Natubob 412496
Average DPS of top 5 frost mages: 436006
1. Dewgong 453915
2. Karqon 440701
3. Milks 424532
4. Sfougz 419093
5. Orby 404888
Average DPS of top 5 fire mages: 428626
But if you look at raidbots, this is what you see:
Which is bad, because this is a much more accurate way of looking at it. And oh! Look! They're really close to each other and alternate Frost/Fire/Frost/Fire/etc
But no, you guys won't put more than 5 seconds of thought into something before coming to a conclusion. As I said before, old mindsets die hard.