The previous 457 runs have no bearing on the chance on the 458th run, which remains at 0.0078. As I said, you don't understand probability.
The question is not "What is the chance I get zero drops in 458 runs?". The question is "What is the chance I get the mount this run?", which is 0.0078.
You're the one that is incorrect factually, there's no "argument" to be had here. Please stop trying to sound so brilliant repeating an obvious fact that has been said at least 20 times in this thread (including by me) when you have no clue what you're talking about.
I am not talking about JUST the 458th run, I am talking about ALL 458 runs. In a similar vein if I flipped a coin 10 times, yes, the chance I get a head on exactly the 10th flip is 0.5, but the chance I get at least one head in ANY of the 10 flips is quite a bit more than 0.5.
Edit: Person I'm quoting is actually not factually incorrect insofar that what he is saying himself is true, but he does suffer from "inability to read" syndrome, so he's wrong when claiming I am Please read my statements carefully!
Last edited by nightfalls; 2013-11-19 at 02:02 AM.
The probability problem you described has tricked numerous people that gamble.
Suppose you are betting on an event that 9 of 10 times comes true.
A gambler might think by progressive betting is going to win if he keeps chasing a 1/10 loss.
However it is possible or probable that even a 9/10 winner will lose 20,30,40,100,1000 times. Suppose your original bet is 1$ by betting progresively you will be risking thousands or even millions to win 1$ and risk still losing.
Casinos and bookmakers, because of that, love progressive staking players.
Exactly. People can keep doing mount runs thinking that their chance is increasing each time, but it isn't. More fool you.
That said, "you've got to be in it to win it".
Well for probability to be understandable you have to realize 2 things. You're not trying to measure your chance to get it but the chance to NOT get it . atm you are at ~54.7% NOT to get the mount.
Doing one run every day reduces that amount until eventually your chance not to get it will be equal to your chance to get it.
X=Chance to drop
Y=Chance to not drop
Z=Number of runs required.
X=Y^Z which gives us a number of Z=619.
This means after 619 runs you have better chances of getting it than not getting it but it's STILL A FUCKING CHANCE !
Go do a sacrifice to the RNG gods ... they will guide you to the path of luck and eventually... to epic mount !
What it has to do with the OP: If he runs the place 458 more times, he has a 99% chance to get the mount.
What it has to do with you: Either you are deliberately being dense or totally ignorant. Since cumulative probability is quite difficult to understand, I am wholly understanding and sympathetic to your total inability to grasp the concept, if it is the latter.
I'm not going to go in circles about simple facts.
- - - Updated - - -
I'll try to break it down one last time, in case it's really just you understanding:
He. is. not. describing. the. same. problem. you. are. describing.
P.S to Arian21: The 0.0079 came from Wowhead which is only an estimate since only Blizzard knows the true drop chances. Most people believe the actual drop rate is set to 1% (could be 0.8%, could be 1.2% for some similar mounts).
Last edited by nightfalls; 2013-11-19 at 01:56 AM.
Yes he is. Why do his previous runs have any bearing on his next run? There's nothing cumulative about this. Please explain to me how it is, I'm interested to know why you erroneously think that.
I like the way you are trying to make out I don't understand what I'm talking about. The irony is beautiful.
Last edited by Daedelus; 2013-11-19 at 01:59 AM.
... because you don't. Anyway I'm through with you, just suggesting that OP and others put this troll on ignore.
@ OP: If you run the place 458 more times, you'll have a 99% chance at the mount. That said theoretically what others have said is right... you could run the place until the servers shut down (you are limited to 5 runs per hour and servers will shut down within your lifetime) and never get the mount, but in the same vein you could theoretically flip a fair coin until you die and never flip tails.
If you run it 5 times a day, you'll have it pretty confidently within a few months
Gambler's fallacy.
Whether or not you get the mount on one kill has absolutely no bearing on whether or not you get it on the next kill.
Every single time you kill the monster, there is a 0.78% chance (0.0078 chance) of the mount dropping. You are equally likely the receive the mount on your first kill as you are on your tenth, fiftieth, two-thousandth, and millionth kills.
You don't understand what you are talking about.
Assume a 1% drop chance for simplicity's sake. What is the cumulative probability of seeing a drop by the 50th run?
Answer: 1 - (0.99 ^ 50) = 39.5%
What is the cumulative probability of seeing a drop by the 500th run?
Answer: 1 - (0.99 ^ 500) = 99.3%
This is what we are talking about. We are not saying that the drop rate changes with repeated attempts.
voidspark, you are the troll, trying to give out bullshit stats. There are plenty of people here who have explained this problem very clearly (including Neganova above) and you still can't understand.
Right. Most people in statistics are well aware that independent events are independent. That said there's not a whole lot interesting about them. What most people are interested in is cumulative probabilities, for instance, what's the chance that the next week we'll get a storm? (Not the chance of getting a storm the next particular minute, for instance). Not "what's the chance I win a game one time I play it" but rather, what the statistics/odds are long term after several iterations of the same game.
That said it's quite difficult to understand the difference so I have to forgive people for being "dumb" about it... as for being "dense" about it, not so sure.
I advise you to study more probability if you wish to come off as an "expert" but I understand if you give up. It's not for everyone
Here's another justification which could help you "understand" if that is even possible (you don't seem to have a desire to read anything I write): There is a reason I said the next 458 runs, and did not give him credit for the ~40-50 runs he previously did already.
Last edited by nightfalls; 2013-11-19 at 02:08 AM.
I'm really tempted to post the Monty Hall problem and watch people's heads explode.