The probability to drop at the x-th try is (1-0.0078)^(x-1) * 0.0078
The propability to drop before(or at) the t-th try is 1-(1-0.0078)^t
The probability to drop after the t-th try is (1-0.0078)^t
The probability to have dropped before(or at) the 77th try is 1-(1-0.0078)^77 which is almost equal to 0.4528=45.28%.
"Expect" it to drop around the 128th try (1/0.0078=128.205128205) but this may vary A LOT!, because the standard deviation is the square root of (1-0.0078)/0.0078^2 which is around 127.7.
You can observe that, if you go down at the very end of the graph page that I have linked bellow and see the Random sample from the distribution section and check the numbers. They are a MESS, they are not near at the "expected" 128! Almost completely random!
Thus, EXPECT NOTHING.
Additional stuff:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probabi...probability.29
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution (this is the distribution that our events follow)
Graph(look where it says Plot of CDF at the end of the page): http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i...078&lk=4&num=3
Last edited by mmoce7f77496c8; 2013-11-19 at 06:51 PM. Reason: Added some graphs
Just an update guys. Got it a few seconds ago on my 109th run.
the funny thing is that this thread wasnt needed at all since its explained the on the calculator webpage itself
Probability for gamers. No matter how many times you run something, no matter what you do, or how many times you've already done it, the numbers don't change. It will always be less than a 1% chance. Run it 5 times an hour every day till the sun explodes, and it's still a 1% chance to drop. You're committing the gambler's fallacy, basically. Most players do. That's how they keep you hooked. "But I've run it 700 times, it's bound to drop this time." No. No, it's not. It is the exact same 1% drop rate as the first time you ran it. Probability is theoretical, not practical. Besides probability has nothing to do with Blizzard's "fun" RNG.
Originally Posted by Me
I am describing the chance of him NOT getting it after X consecutive runs. That means that it is still a possibility he will never get it but his chances will be higher to get it THAN not get it after the 619th run (assuming wowhead is right)
I come across a quiet river, that wonders through the trees.
I stare into its running waters and fall unto my knees.
In resignation to the forest, that's held me for so long.
I close my eyes and drift away into nature's evensong.