So I am currently farming for the Drake of the North Wind in Vortex Pinnacle and I have cleared the place 77 times since I started counting.
The drop chance is 0.78% according to wowhead and I'll trust that it's either that or close to it. I'm using this article http://wow.joystiq.com/2010/01/13/dr...ity/#continued to calculate the probability for the mount to have dropped during the course of my 77 runs (at the moment: 45.28075 percent). But seeing as I am not even remotely talented when it comes to mathematics, my mind is having an issue wrapping itself around the whole ordeal.
Everytime I kill the dragon the drop rate is it's fixed 0.78%, that does not rise or fall on any new kill. On the other hand, the number of times I have killed him rises and I should have had an overall increase chance for it to have dropped... so should I get more excited about the next run and the run after that? The drop rate is unchanged, but it feels as if I have a higher chance to get it everytime... but I don't.
When I am at 500 runs and let's assume for arguments sake I have not had it drop yet, the chance that I would have seen it within the number of my runs is now at 98%. In such a scenario, should I expect it to drop any run now? Or is that foolish since the probability is still 0.78% which doesn't seem promising at all.
Ultimately I don't know what to ask. I believe it boils down to "Should I get more excited since it's more likely to drop?".