How far do you think the Russian crisis will go?

[Bumbasta]

Are they threatening just Ukraine or Europe? (or both?)

They're directly threatening Ukraine, which is the gateway to Europe. Aproximately 54% of the gas Russia exports to Europe goes via Ukraine. So it can be seen as an indirect threat to Europe as well.

[Wildtree]

I don't see a Russian Crisis.... Was there one?
There was a crisis in Ukraine, but in Russia? Not so much.... None at all..

[Bumbasta]

Yeah, depends where you get your news.

exactly



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I don't see a Russian Crisis.... Was there one?
There was a crisis in Ukraine, but in Russia? Not so much.... None at all..

You're missing the economic impact this all has on Russia.

[Fexus]

I can't help but laugh at major war options at the poll. Russia will probably just keep Crimea, and pretty much nothing else will happen.

[Haven]

It'd be better for them not to scar western world relations for years to come and to cut trade with Europe.

It's better for Europe not to cut trade with Russia. The so-called "sanctions" are EU shooting itself in the foot and trying to do it in a menacing yet no-so-damaging way, because Russia is a huge field for business and investments. They slam the entrance door before themselves. Politicians say one thing, but the money say another.

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You're missing the economic impact this all has on Russia.

So far, everyone here's missing it

[Sunseeker]

As long as the EU the West remains generally uninterested in the fate of the Eastern Bloc, Russia will keep pushing. It will wear thin in time though and Putin isn't an idiot. I would expect to see some more "revolutions" followed by some new autonomous regions in Eastern Europe, who will eventually be absorbed by Russia. When the West's patience finally wears thin, Putin will back off, and likely press his luck in middle Asia, where for all intents and purposes nobody gives a damn. His biggest issue will be bringing stability to Russia in the aftermath, when the eyes of Russians finally turn back on him and calls for solutions to Russian problems start growing. Expect 20-30 years of Russia playing big dog before this truly dies down.

The biggest question will be if we see a more stable Russia in the final outcome, which could be great, and could be terrible, depending on how Russia stabilizes.

Russia won't cut ties with Europe economically, it'd be their death knell, but that won't stop them from waving their dick around as much as possible. England will piss and moan about it, France will do dirty shit to deal with it, Germany will profit and grow more influential in the Euro-sphere (which will piss of the European Old Powers). There is potential here for the EU to band together as a tighter federation, though it is important to note that this must happen naturally with the Euro-powers willingly joining hands to empower Europe. If this happens by force, that is, pressure from America and the European Council pushing new laws that tie European nations inexorably together, when the Russian "threat" ends we'll likely see the EU implode horribly.

As long as Russia's actions don't mess with America's sphere of influence (ie: getting involved in the continental Americas, east asia, or the middle east), America will largely sit on the sidelines, talk a big talk, bolster it's military, and pressure the EU to do something(all while the EU ties, and fails, to pressure the US into action). America will still funnel money into Russian companies (Rusatom's biggest investor is the USA), we'll still cooperate on space missions, and generally not be bothered unless Russia steps out of it's bounds.

China won't get involved but may play along with Russia if they truly have territorial ambitions in middle-asia, this of course, could piss of India, who are major consumers, and China doesn't want to do that. As long as Russia doesn't step into areas China considers theirs, China isn't going to bother, they know Russia won't come knocking on their door. If anything they'll increase trade and oil purchases from Russia, which will have the side effect of letting Russia screw around with Europe some more.

There will be no war, not directly at least, though we may see some proxy wars, but it is unlikely as these will only happen if Russia steps out of it's bounds, which it probably won't.

As far as the only real prediction can be given, only about the next 5 years can be seen, and this will certainly NOT settle down in that time.

[truckboattruck]

hire tywin lannister to solve this problem
and it will end...oh it will end

[Deleted]

Russia now has the Crimea back which they always believed to be theirs, Europe and the USA has secured the rest of the Ukraine and so believes they have won. It is win/win for both sides.

[Ihnasir]

Possibly a Cold War and heightened tensions between Western and other European nations, but that's about as far as it'll go if at all possible. I wouldn't think anyone would risk potential war from this. It'll likely fizzle out soon, but again, only time will tell.

[Wildtree]

You're missing the economic impact this all has on Russia.

That is to be seen, and not to be speculated.
Russia is not poor. It has a lousy economy. Which is nothing to be surprised about, if one has a little sense on how politics work.
There's some rule of thumb expression, which is actually fairly old...
It takes about as long to get a country off the ground as it took to run it into the ground.
The USSR reign took a long long time. Hence why it takes a long long time for Russia to be out of the crap. That doesn't mean that the country has no money.
If they want to they can surely finance the luxury of an embargo.
Some people underestimate Russia brutally, while at the same time often overestimate our side.
How much of a hogwash is said about Russia was demonstrated during and with the Olympics.
That shitty event that will definitely turn into a disaster (as the pre-reports suggested), it went on and over with flawless precision.

[Yunru]

Russia now has the Crimea back which they always believed to be theirs, Europe and the USA has secured the rest of the Ukraine and so believes they have won. It is win/win for both sides.

There is a chance on this:

..small one tho

[THE Bigzoman]

Putin waits out the sanctions and the west somehow claim victory despite the fact the Russia ends up keeping Crimera.

Then down the road, another saga will occur and everyone will forget about Crimera.

[Bumbasta]

That is to be seen, and not to be speculated.
Russia is not poor. It has a lousy economy. Which is nothing to be surprised about, if one has a little sense on how politics work.
There's some rule of thumb expression, which is actually fairly old...
It takes about as long to get a country off the ground as it took to run it into the ground.
The USSR reign took a long long time. Hence why it takes a long long time for Russia to be out of the crap. That doesn't mean that the country has no money.
If they want to they can surely finance the luxury of an embargo.
Some people underestimate Russia brutally, while at the same time often overestimate our side.
How much of a hogwash is said about Russia was demonstrated during and with the Olympics.
That shitty event that will definitely turn into a disaster (as the pre-reports suggested), it went on and over with flawless precision.

It is not speculation, it is already hapenning. Check Moscow stock exchange for example: with the announcation of Putin threatening with the gas sanctions, it fell 15% versus aproximately 2% in the EU.

And no, they can definitely not finance an embargo. Russia is completely reliant on exporting raw recources. There just aren't any other countries that would import the huge amount that the EU is importing. So it's either exporting to the EU, or having no income.

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If anything they'll increase trade and oil purchases from Russia, which will have the side effect of letting Russia screw around with Europe some more.

(They = China)
This is basically the biggest threat to Europe atm.

[Arlon]

(They = China)
This is basically the biggest threat to Europe atm.

Im not a fan of those countries, but if you want to discuss the biggest threat to Europe, i would say that you should look into the direction of the west. 6 years and counting, that´s how deep of a shithole US and certain European countries have dug up for us. Theres also no end in sight for this recession, at least for Finland. If the West falls, it will be to it´s own stupidity and not due to Russians.

[Deleted]

A good thing to watch is what Gazprom do. If they move away from dollar based contracts is going to get mighty interesting. But yea this is purely economic now.

[Haven]

It is not speculation, it is already hapenning. Check Moscow stock exchange for example: with the announcation of Putin threatening with the gas sanctions, it fell 15% versus aproximately 2% in the EU.

And no, they can definitely not finance an embargo. Russia is completely reliant on exporting raw recources. There just aren't any other countries that would import the huge amount that the EU is importing. So it's either exporting to the EU, or having no income.

First, it's not that absolute. Second, it works both ways. The West has a big market in Russia. Closing it means a loss of heavy investments.

(They = China)
This is basically the biggest threat to Europe atm.

A threat? In which way? You expect any nation that is potentially capable of developing a strong independent economy to be a threat?

[Bumbasta]

Im not a fan of those countries, but if you want to discuss the biggest threat to Europe, i would say that you should look into the direction of the west. 6 years and counting, that´s how deep of a shithole US and certain European countries have dug up for us. Theres also no end in sight for this recession, at least for Finland. If the West falls, it will be to it´s own stupidity and not due to Russians.

I mean in this conflict. Besides that, there is no recession anymore.

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First, it's not that absolute. Second, it works both ways. The West has a big market in Russia. Closing it means a loss of heavy investments.

A threat? In which way? You expect any nation that is potentially capable of developing a strong independent economy to be a threat?

Indeed, it is not absolute. But it does give an indication. Also, as i said before in the thread, Russia hurts itself more with sanctions than it hurts the EU.

Look, this is the problem for Russia: It has a large amount of raw rescources which they have to export, it is their income. The problem for them is that Europe is a huge importer of those rescources. But IF China is capable of importing the complete amount that Europe is doing, it means that Russia can cut off the exports to Europe, switch to China without hurting itself.
Europe will have a huge problem, it needs the raw rescources. So the European economy would get damaged while the Russian economy stays the same. This threat would give Russia a huge dimplomatic and political advantage.

And yes, the age of war is over, it's all economic now. Welcome to the 21st century.

Strong economy/the ability to crash someone else's economy = political leverage = power.

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A good thing to watch is what Gazprom do. If they move away from dollar based contracts is going to get mighty interesting. But yea this is purely economic now.

Yeah, that's basically on what basis i'm buying my stocks atm.

[Arlon]

I mean in this conflict. Besides that, there is no recession anymore.

Google just about any economic statistics and compare even the most optimistic predictions to trends that were during 2000-2008. Yeah, no recession my ass. Just because someone sweeps the word under the rug, does not mean there isn't a situation that fits the description. Also, what conflict? About as much is going to be done about this as there was during Georgia, barring these silly sanctions that accomplish nothing.

I don´t think you get the thing about Russians, even if they need to live in tents, they would rather be considered a world power. The outcry for the lost stock performance is miniscule and the people will blame EU/US for this, not the direction that the Russian government is going in.

[Haven]

And yes, the age of war is over, it's all economic now. Welcome to the 21st century.

Strong economy/the ability to crash someone else's economy = political leverage = power.

The "age of war" is not over. War has always been a continuation of economy, a way to export your problems and import others' riches, it's always been that way no matter how holy it looked, from pillaging Jerusalem in the name of God, to avenging the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, to bringing democracy to Vietnam, to civil unrest in Ukraine these days.

But I was talking about mentality. The whole "us vs. them" thing, the instinctive fear of Asians and Russians on political map, of countries that aren't Europe's or US' client states. I'm under impression that this fear is expressed by one question: "what if they do to us that what we've done to them?". Projection. People fear in others the worst things they know about themselves.

[Bumbasta]

Google just about any economic statistics and compare even the most optimistic predictions to trends that were during 2000-2008. Yeah, no recession my ass. Just because someone sweeps the word under the rug, does not mean there isn't a situation that fits the description. Also, what conflict? About as much is going to be done about this as there was during Georgia, barring these silly sanctions that accomplish nothing.

I don´t think you get the thing about Russians, even if they need to live in tents, they would rather be considered a world power. The outcry for the lost stock performance is miniscule and the people will blame EU/US for this, not the direction that the Russian government is going in.

It's plain and simple. Recession means the economy is declining. Atm the economy isn't declining. There is no recession.

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The "age of war" is not over. War has always been a continuation of economy, a way to export your problems and import others' riches, it's always been that way no matter how holy it looked, from pillaging Jerusalem in the name of God, to avenging the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, to bringing democracy to Vietnam, to civil unrest in Ukraine these days.

True, but the probability of war is extremely unlikely due to globalization and economic dependancy. And it's getting more and more unlikely daily.