You're neglecting the operational range of the squadrons then and now - the Tomcats had a decent shot at killing the Backfires before they could launch. The F/A-18s, unless they get very lucky, don't - they're stuck either trying to kill all the recon and hope that's good enough, or trying to nail inbound hypersonic missiles. And you're playing semantic games with the "4 squadrons" line for a modern strike group - sure, they can do that, if they do nothing but sit and wait for a big maritime airstrike (which mission-kills the carrier just as effectively as putting a couple of holes in it does). In practice, a good fraction of those aircraft are going to carrying out strike, recon, air support, etc.
Where are you getting those 100 nm ranges from? To the best of my knowledge, the F/A-18 doesn't pack anything with more than a fraction of that range.
My point about the Harpoon was that its range is low compared to its competitors fielded by other likely opponents.
The Navy may not trust the F-35, but it looks like they're still going to get it rammed down their throats. Probably the best thing for the carriers now would be if the whole program crashed and burned, but its likely too late for that.
You're right about the F-14's MTTR, MTBF, and the subsequent effects on availability, and being able to launch the SM2's (now SM3s, I think) from VLS is a very nice upgrade, which I wasn't thinking of - that will help the modern strike group massively... depending on whether the CVS has the short or long range SM3. And I'll be damned if I can find out relative deployment numbers of those.
(Obviously the long range variant will let the CVS have a good shot at killing the strike aircraft, which does change the whole equation in favor of the CVS. If not, then they're back to square one (at best), because the Backfires and company can rearm and come back, when the CVS has to try to head back to base to reload them. (Unless the Navy has actually started reloading them at sea, which I highly doubt.))
On both air defense and ASW, things still end up very few hulls to do a lot of work, which makes the CVS brittle (prone to single-point failures). Plus, imho, the USN has gotten quite rusty at ASW work. And the shorter legs and reach of the CAP hurt too - it massively reduces the chances for a decisive victory (killing the strike aircraft), without which the carrier's only real outcomes are loss (mission kill) or draw (survival), and even the latter is a crappy outcome, because most of the missiles for the AEGIS will be spent.
It all comes back to fewer hulls and shorter ranges (on aircraft and missiles) - the higher-tech is nice, but ultimately, I don't think it makes up for the reduction in other capabilities. (At least not in a WWIII-flavored scenario.) Some of this is subjective, and of course, YMMV.
So much ends up riding on AEGIS performance in wartime...