World War 3? - Is it even possible?

[Palmz]

I think it will be different because this time majority of US people will know what Petrodollar is and what is the real reason why they have those conflicts with desert countries to begin with.

It will be Vietnam all over again.

The true question is not when will WW3 happen but wether USA will find a new resource to back their dollar with before things get out of hand. Right now things are getting really out of hand.

The only desert country the US would be worried about is Saudi Arabia and last I checked, the relations between the two countries is great. As for the others we are getting less than 2% from, things haven't changed for decades. There is no dependency. And we have a resource to back our petrodollar if things ever get out of hand and it's right in our own country. The US is the richest country on earth with oil reserves. We are sitting on the largest pile of oil in the world underneath the rocky mountains and it still hasn't been touched.

Besides, we are moving ahead with natural gas and other forms of energy.

[Mosotti]

No, there aren't enough countries to go at war with each other.

[Kellhound]

The only desert country the US would be worried about is Saudi Arabia and last I checked, the relations between the two countries is great. As for the others we are getting less than 2% from, things haven't changed for decades. There is no dependency. And we have a resource to back our petrodollar if things ever get out of hand and it's right in our own country. The US is the richest country on earth with oil reserves. We are sitting on the largest pile of oil in the world underneath the rocky mountains and it still hasn't been touched.

Besides, we are moving ahead with natural gas and other forms of energy.

Do not overestimate the ties between the US and Saudi Arabia, they have feet of clay....

[Deleted]

Yes, but it 's not going to be a war in the "traditional" way I'm guessing.

The world at some point "needs" a war to settle ongoing problems, disputes, overpopulation, cultural friction, food- and raw material shortage etc.

And there will be a point again where powers in the world will shift from one region to another that could spark ambitions of conquest and domination like I always had.

[Replica]

It will happen at some point or another, with our without nukes is the real question.
15MT Castle Bravo vs 15KT Fatboy are worlds apart.
Fatboy on NYC could kill ~800,000
Castle Bravo on NYC? 7mil+

[Kellhound]

It will happen at some point or another, with our without nukes is the real question.
15MT Castle Bravo vs 15KT Fatboy are worlds apart.
Fatboy on NYC could kill ~800,000
Castle Bravo on NYC? 7mil+

Most nukes are in the 150kt-450kt range, there are no deliverable 15mt warheads these days.

[Gothicshark]

Most nukes are in the 150kt-450kt range, there are no deliverable 15mt warheads these days.

You numbers are way off.
1kt = 1,000 tons TNT
1mt = 1,000,000 tons TNT

The average weapon in use today has around 15kt yield. Gone are the days of Megaton bombs. Most weapons today are intended as a nuclear deterrent not in case the cold war goes hot.

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon_yield

Bomb	Yield kt TNT	Yield TJ(terajoules)	Notes
Davy Crockett	0.01	0.042	Variable yield tactical nuclear weapon—mass only 23 kg (51 lb), lightest ever deployed by the United States (same warhead as Special Atomic Demolition Munition and GAR-11 Nuclear Falcon missile).
Hiroshima's "Little Boy" gravity bomb	13–18	54–75	Gun type uranium-235 fission bomb (the first of the two nuclear weapons that have been used in warfare).
Nagasaki's "Fat Man" gravity bomb	20–22	84–92	Implosion type plutonium-239 fission bomb (the second of the two nuclear weapons used in warfare).
W76 warhead	100	420	Twelve of these may be in a MIRVed Trident II missile; treaty limited to eight.
W87 warhead	300	1,300	Ten of these were in a MIRVed LGM-118A Peacekeeper.
W88 warhead	475	1,990	Twelve of these may be in a Trident II missile (treaty limited to eight).
Ivy King device	500	2,100	Most powerful pure fission bomb, 60 kg uranium, implosion type.
B83 nuclear bomb	variable	variable	Up to 1.2 megatonnes of TNT (5.0 PJ); most powerful US weapon in active service.
B53 nuclear bomb	9,000	38,000	Was the most powerful US bomb until 2010; it was not in active service for many years before 2010, but during that time, 50 were retained as part of the "Hedge" portion of the Enduring Stockpile until completely dismantled in 2011,[2] a variant of the two-stage B61 is the B53 replacement in the bunker-busting role; the B53 was similar to the W-53 warhead that has been used in the Titan II Missile; decommissioned in 1987.
Castle Bravo device	15,000	63,000	Most powerful US test.
EC17/Mk-17, the EC24/Mk-24, and the B41 (Mk-41)	various	various	Most powerful US weapons ever: 25 megatonnes of TNT (100 PJ); the Mk-17 was also the largest by size and mass: about 20 short tons (18,000 kg); The Mk-41 or B41 had a mass of 4800 kg and yield of 25 Mt, this equates to being the highest yield-to-weight weapon ever produced; all were gravity bombs carried by the B-36 bomber (retired by 1957).
The entire Operation Castle nuclear test series	48,200	202,000	The highest-yielding test series conducted by the US.
Tsar Bomba device	50,000	210,000	USSR, most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated, yield of 50 megatons, (50 million tons of tnt). In its "full" form (i.e. with a depleted uranium tamper instead of one made of lead) it would have been 100 megatonnes of TNT (420 PJ).
All nuclear testing as of 1996	510,300	2,135,000	Total energy expended during all nuclear testing

[Sastank]

If N. Korea keeps up their BS with their spoiled brat of a leader then yes, very possible.

[PACOX]

If N. Korea keeps up their BS with their spoiled brat of a leader then yes, very possible.

The only people who even kind of like N. Korea is China because of trade. I doubt China would fight a world war for N. Korea.

[Kellhound]

You numbers are way off.
1kt = 1,000 tons TNT
1mt = 1,000,000 tons TNT

The average weapon in use today has around 15kt yield. Gone are the days of Megaton bombs. Most weapons today are intended as a nuclear deterrent not in case the cold war goes hot.

The only sub- 100kt warheads the US has in active service are the tactical versions of the B61 (and even those have a max yield of 170kt in the correct version). Strategic B61 = 340kt, W80 (used in cruise missiles) = 150kt, W88 (D5) = 425kt, W76 (D5 also) = 100kt, W87 (Minuteman III) = 475kt. All yields are the maximum.

Oh, there is also the B83, 1.2mt yield, still in inventory.

[Zangeiti]

Kim Jong Un is not a world leader and his nukes are so laughable that they probably explode on launch. (or get shot down by our South Korean friends and their Allies).

I also wouldn't say that he's crazy, he just tries to survive the extremely dangerous political climate in NK, to us he looks crazy, but he has to act that way to ensure that his generals and advisors don't see him as weak and overtrow him.
Ofcoarse living in this sort of enviroment is not healthy for the human brain, and I wouldn't put it past him to eventually lose it because of the extreme pressure he's under constantly.

(I'm not trying to sweet talk our Glorious Leader tough, just trying to put myself in his situation)

Especially because of the fact that there are so many American troops at the border prepared to attack Korea they wouldnt have much time to defend themselves against war and they have literly no allies

[Daethz]

I don't think Russia and America are dumb enough to ever launch a nuke, as it would be a guaranteed world ender, or atleast, country ender.
But is war possible? Most definitely.

However I believe war has changed, we now fight with information instead of guns, atleast against people who match our military's strength, or have nukes.
"Cyber Security" - 21st century marine.

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Also take a look at this.
The TSAR Bomb, the largest nuclear weapon in human history, was created and detonated in the 60's.
It has been over 50 years since then.

If we tried im sure we could probably create nuclear weapon yields that make the Tsar Bomb look like childsplay.
Id bet we could create Continent-Killing Nuclear Warheads in 2014.

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Just thinking , the most likely "WW3" situation right now would be:
Russia Invades Ukraine, America invades and fights them back. (Declaring War on Russia)
Middle Eastern countries see this as a perfect opportunity to attack Isreal, Multiple countries declare war on and invade isreal.
America sends troops to assist them.
North Korea depending on how intelligent their leader really is could also decide that its a good time to strike, and attack south korea.
America would send troops to assist them aswell, and use that region to attack russia from the other side.

The only worry is, if Russia loses so badly they get desperate, that's when you enter the possibility of them launching a nuclear counterattack.

[Hooked]

I think it will happen eventually and it will come from within first, once our country is weakened from within then they will make their move.

[Gothicshark]

Just thinking , the most likely "WW3" situation right now would be:
Russia Invades Ukraine, America invades and fights them back. (Declaring War on Russia)
Middle Eastern countries see this as a perfect opportunity to attack Isreal, Multiple countries declare war on and invade isreal.
America sends troops to assist them.
North Korea depending on how intelligent their leader really is could also decide that its a good time to strike, and attack south korea.
America would send troops to assist them aswell, and use that region to attack russia from the other side.

The only worry is, if Russia loses so badly they get desperate, that's when you enter the possibility of them launching a nuclear counterattack.

If Russia invaded Ukraine the EU would Cut off ties with Russia, America would call for sanctions and a blockade/embargo, China torn between Communist Pride and Profit will reluctantly side with Europe, not the US. Putin would get a case of "pneumonia" and die withing 4 months. When he dies the Russians will either hold position and negotiate a treaty, or withdraw.

Meanwhile in the Middle East, Iraq will allow Iranian troops to fight back against ISIS as the US isn't going to send ground support, Israel and Gaza remain unchanged, Hamas putting Palestinians at risk, IDF attacking Hamas, Civilians die. (Seriously no win situation there, and even the other Arab nations could care less about Palestine at this point, although good PR for local politicians, ie you screw up, are evil, greedy, blame Israel and everyone forgets how bad a job you did.)

[Deleted]

there is also the B83, 1.2mt yield, still in inventory.

Are you sure? When's the last time you checked? I mean, walked into the building that houses those, and made sure they're still there? I'm just saying, what with your military people who are responsible for your nukes, gambling and partying, sleeping on the job, leaving places unguarded, and so on.

Easiest terrorist strike on the US? Walk into a nuclear weapon facility as the guards are asleep, steal a nuke, walk out, take it to a city and blow shit up. No need to bring anything into the country, apparently. Perhaps there should be a movie made about it.

[Yvaelle]

Easiest terrorist strike on the US? Walk into a nuclear weapon facility as the guards are asleep, steal a nuke, walk out, take it to a city and blow shit up. No need to bring anything into the country, apparently. Perhaps there should be a movie made about it.

So, a couple problems with this plan:

a) Nuclear Weapon facilities, while probably not given the maintenance they deserve - are probably still pretty secure - bunkers, blast doors, secret key codes and biometrics, etc.
b) I suspect they do still keep night watch patrols
c) Strangers wandering around them at night are likely to be shot on sight: it's in America after all

I'm not saying it wouldn't be one of the easier ways to get a nuke inside the US, though - but you may need to go all Mission Impossible to pull it off.

Lastly, and it's kind of a big one - nukes aren't toasters - you don't arm them by just pulling the lever down and then running away for a couple minutes. So you probably need a nuclear weapons expert - and those people - for any country - are usually pretty well vetted and monitored - and bringing one familiar with say, North Korean nukes - might not mean they are also fluent in US nuclear design - it could take months to reverse engineer just the housing and arming mechanisms to bypass the safety protocols: probably enough time for the guards to notice the missing inventory.

Now, you can get around all that by getting a mole on the inside, with access to the site, and knowledge of the weapons - but getting a mole like that is already the subject of Homeland - and it's a dash far-fetched. Most moles do so because they are selfish, but not necessarily remorseless psychopaths - which you would have to be to nuke a city.

[Mayhem]

So, a couple problems with this plan:

a) Nuclear Weapon facilities, while probably not given the maintenance they deserve - are probably still pretty secure - bunkers, blast doors, secret key codes and biometrics, etc.
b) I suspect they do still keep night watch patrols
c) Strangers wandering around them at night are likely to be shot on sight: it's in America after all

http://www.ibtimes.com/air-force-gua...asleep-1437044

ahem

[Deleted]

a) Nuclear Weapon facilities, while probably not given the maintenance they deserve - are probably still pretty secure - bunkers, blast doors, secret key codes and biometrics, etc.
b) I suspect they do still keep night watch patrols
c) Strangers wandering around them at night are likely to be shot on sight: it's in America after all

Of course I wasn't being serious, but didn't you watch Last Week Tonight?



Nuclear silo doors can't be closed. Officers barely passing proficiency tests with "D" grades, or being stripped of their certifications because of cheating in the proficiency tests. Officers with launch keys leaving doors open, sleeping inside, being woken up by a pizza delivery man.

Yeah. That's what's going on.

[Kellhound]

Are you sure? When's the last time you checked? I mean, walked into the building that houses those, and made sure they're still there? I'm just saying, what with your military people who are responsible for your nukes, gambling and partying, sleeping on the job, leaving places unguarded, and so on.

Easiest terrorist strike on the US? Walk into a nuclear weapon facility as the guards are asleep, steal a nuke, walk out, take it to a city and blow shit up. No need to bring anything into the country, apparently. Perhaps there should be a movie made about it.

The places that have been in the news are the Minuteman III silos, not the bunkers with the gravity bombs, though the errors do show why the US needs to remove the ICBMs and just place all warheads into subs (and to hell with the treaty limiting the number of undersea warheads).

[cuafpr]

sigh... as a former Nuclear Launch control officer so much i could correct if it i was free to.. but i can tell ya some

1) the blast door being left open was wrong, but there was another blast door shut, elevator shaft and armed security and sensors to get past before getting down there. The only way that came out was via crew dogs being stupid and admitting to it, cause there is ample time between giving someone permission to head down stairs and them getting there to shut the door, or act like you just opened (Still wrong but not AS bad).

2) they def need better MNX and money spent on upkeep and modernization.

3) strangers are not shot on sight. /eyeroll.

4) the testing thing is bad and embarrassing as a former crew dog cause they are not overly hard if you study your ass off. However when the expectation is perfect scores on 3 test a month, perfect marks on on sim ride a month, and when you eval the only out come accepted is HQ (highly qualified) with no errors being all but expected. people break down and cheat not out of lack of knowledge but out of fear one mistake breaking that perfect streak and the career impacting ramifications it can have.


I wont go in more details unless asked, but its a career field that has long suffered from low moral and a feeling of being the red head step child of the DoD... people forced into that flunked out of other career training or other reasons. I loved my time with it though, and it was before this stuff came out. I'd still be in the career field though if not for budget cuts and down sizing >.<

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The places that have been in the news are the Minuteman III silos, not the bunkers with the gravity bombs, though the errors do show why the US needs to remove the ICBMs and just place all warheads into subs (and to hell with the treaty limiting the number of undersea warheads).

and totally lose a major part of the triad.... yeah no.