Q2/2014 Sub prediction and discussion thread (5th August, 2014)

[Lochton]

Hello hello, my follow madmen and forum dwellers alike!

Sun crosses the sky, clouds move and the days pass on the calender. It has once more become close to that day, the day where we will hear the quarterly report from Activision-Blizzard. Among that will of course be our little home within World of Warcraft.

Reports come as a business supplies it, the investment team has a release for the 5th August, 2014

This is not a discussion about 'padding' of numbers, an offer is still an offer. If you find them imprecise just because others bought a version on sale, then it is still a paying subscriber. It is a common thing for many companies, and this it isn't the discussion topic.

This is all about the discussion for how you predict the quarterly results to be! 100k gain/loss, 200?, 300? More? Less? It can all come to a discussion here.


Currently curve for subscriptions over the last quarterly results is of course available >here<


Their investment teams keep previous results on digital files and is available to the ones that might be interested. Q1/2014 summary sheet.

Activision Blizzard Releases Second Quarter 2014 Financial Results (5th August, 2014)
1:30 p.m. Pacific Time (4:30 p.m. Eastern Time)


Have a good summer! And be sure to get out!

[corngrenade]

6.8 Million wow subs in Q1 2014. WoW fanatics are WoW fanatics: they keep playing because they're hopelessly hooked -- so you will see a very slow drop-off. It would probably take 3 years of no content before WoW "died".

[Deleted]

Down 7 million subs. Because reasons.

[BenBos]

I would like to see the WOW subscriptions in 2015

[Pann]

They have done really well to retain subs since the launch of SoO but I have a feeling that the long gap in content is going to bite this quarter and I don't think Alpha/Beta announcements and box sales will be enough this time. My feeling is a loss of around half a million.

[Baine]

6.8 Million wow subs in Q1 2014. WoW fanatics are WoW fanatics: they keep playing because they're hopelessly hooked -- so you will see a very slow drop-off. It would probably take 3 years of no content before WoW "died".

Some people still play on private server even if there is no new content. So new content isn't all for some I presume.

[Lochton]

6.8 Million wow subs in Q1 2014. WoW fanatics are WoW fanatics: they keep playing because they're hopelessly hooked -- so you will see a very slow drop-off. It would probably take 3 years of no content before WoW "died".

Please post constructively, mate. Topic is simple and straight, avert from calling people fanatics or such. It is a simple discussion about subscriber gains and losses.

[BenBos]

Good lord, the very first reply and this mindless dribble is already beginning...

Can we NEVER just have a legitimate discussion without naming and patronizing people?

OT: I voted 400k+ subs lost. I feel the content drought will mostly be felt this upcoming quarter report.

Yes, but the forum thread is created too early this time as the press conference will only be held mid August.

As I said already: "content" as such is not the driving force for sub losses. Market changes are the real deal and I got the confirmation about the last 9 months that free to play MMO's had a hard time to keep people playing after the initial "hyped" conversion from subs to free to play.

It seems iPad gaming has reached its limits too AND MOBA games are in a serious glide on Xfire and other tracking tools.

So my bet is the SUB losses won't be over a few 100K or around 2/3% at the max.

People want to stay in the CLUB, even while not playing. Most players stay tuned between expansions as they never reach the latest raid content anyway.

[Lochton]

They have done really well to retain subs since the launch of SoO but I have a feeling that the long gap in content is going to bite this quarter and I don't think Alpha/Beta announcements and box sales will be enough this time. My feeling is a loss of around half a million.

You might be right around that, it is a sad with such gap. Though, I find it is a better fitting home than most offers currently, don't know why..

[BenBos]

It would be a sad day if there weren't any sublosses.

And you really think that 50% of the people already did all content ?If the theory of a 6 month content draught were true, WOW would loose at least 30% of its active subscribers numbers. That would be around 2.5 million players.

Think about why this will not happen. Even with a 500k sub loss that means that around 94% of players are still quite happy to pay a subscription.

The simple tric is to find new 5% players and they even out (like the previous 9 months).

My son just restarted during his vacation and the reason was simple: Hearthstone got him hooked on the "real" game again.

[Deleted]

It is a simple discussion about subscriber gains and losses.

When has ever one of these been simple?

[rda]

400k+ loss, because there is nothing to do and WoD seems far away. They also managed to alienate quite a lot of people with what they are doing in WoD, but that likely will primarily affect the next quarter.

[Deleted]

loss because nothing happened.

[McNeil]

Around 500k loss, but who knows after Blizzards actions these days... the game at its current state doesn't deserve the subs.

[Babyrobot]

Loss because no content since siege which is ridiculous.

They deserve a loss they can't keep treating their customers like crap and expect a good response.

[Gimlix]

This quarter a 500-700k lose, next quarter a 200k gain, then WoD launches i would say, a few million gain.

[Haytham]

~300K loss in my opinion

WoD gain will be around 50% of people that quit during MoP not more.

[Deleted]

Probably +200k.

Around triple that number if not more after WoD releases ofc.

[Deadite]

They deserve a loss they can't keep treating their customers like crap and expect a good response.

They can and will continue to do so sadly. They know most people who play wow these days are happy with nothing. As much as i think they deserve to get a big loss i doubt they will this time. Even with no content for probably over a year again and most WoD blue posts being about what they are removing from the game they have pulled out ever trick in the book this time. They have chucked so many buffs/discounts/deals at people this time i doubt they will lose many people. They have chucked every incentive possible at people that some of it will stick.

[Synstir]

I think 500+K; i think because of nothing new after SoO a lot of players are taking a break.
They are not leaving wow, just taking a break.
Once WoD is released, a lot of those players will return (hopefully).

So I think the drop will be quite massive.