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  1. #1

    The 1st quarter post WOD, what will the subs be at?

    We going to see a big gain or might it it remain current numbers? I suspect we see 8 million.
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  2. #2
    Immortal Soisoisoi's Avatar
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    It always jumps back up on a new expansion, so yeah there will definitely be a big gain. Even the hated "panda expansion" got a jump in subs.

  3. #3
    I'd put my money on 8 million. It will eventually dip its way back down below 7 again and if they have a 15-18 month gap after 6.4 we can expect to see 5 million pre-7.0.
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  4. #4
    We're really doing this shit now?

  5. #5
    I am Murloc! Valyrian Stormclaw's Avatar
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    8 million plus guarenteed; 50% chance of 9 million. Anything beyond that is wishful thinking, even if it turns out to be the best expansion since Wrath.
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  6. #6
    8-9 million sounds about right.
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  7. #7
    Brewmaster Asphyxiate9's Avatar
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    Even 8 million seems wishful at this stage. The game is too old to suddenly raise up 2-3 million subs after an expansion no matter how good it is.

  8. #8
    At Max I say 8.5mil.

    A thing to keep inmind is MOP and Cata sold a little over 3million copys and WOD has already sold have that in digital sells. So that leaves around 1.5mil subs that could come back via more sells. So 6.8mil+1.5mil=8.3mil

    So unless WOD is some massive awesomeness xpac I only see at most 8.5mil. These are rough numbers and we still have 1 quarter left of reports before WOD's first quarter.

    As I said the numbers are rough but I don't see them going higher then 8.5mil and thats at MAX.
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  9. #9
    I am Murloc! Valyrian Stormclaw's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by orangelemonrain View Post
    Even 8 million seems wishful at this stage. The game is too old to suddenly raise up 2-3 million subs after an expansion no matter how good it is.
    The game had two stages of fans: the vanilla-wrath players, of whom many of which have fallen away, though a few remain. The game's true fans now - those who have stuck through after Cataclysm - will always stay here (for the most part).

    First of all; WoD is capitalizing on WC3 characters and arcs, which every vanilla player ever has played; this will bring back a few of them. Second; the expansion is improving upon the post-wrath direction it has taken, which will bring more players who left post cata back.Lastly, the game is also attracting a third generation of WoW players with the boost-to-90 deal, which will help boost subs. This could bring the game back up to 9 million.
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  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Jtbrig7390 View Post
    So that leaves around 1.5mil subs that could come back via more sells. So 6.8mil+1.5mil=8.3mil
    lol fail math... it doesn't work like that imo.
    Right now there are 6.8mil subs, let's assume 1.5mil bought the WoD digital upgrade, that means ONLY 1.5mil will be playing WoD. while the rest (6.8mil - 1.5mill = 5.3mil) are stuck with MoP expansion. but then why would people play old contents after they release WoD expansion *shrugs*

  11. #11
    I think that anything near 9mil is a little too hopeful. 7.5 to 8.5 is realistic.
    Last edited by Thandorr; 2014-08-12 at 02:06 AM.

  12. #12
    Dreadlord Csnyder's Avatar
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    how would we know, why ask us how many will sub...lol
    wow

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Number1gentleman View Post
    lol fail math... it doesn't work like that imo.
    Right now there are 6.8mil subs, let's assume 1.5mil bought the WoD digital upgrade, that means ONLY 1.5mil will be playing WoD. while the rest (6.8mil - 1.5mill = 5.3mil) are stuck with MoP expansion. but then why would people play old contents after they release WoD expansion *shrugs*
    ...Did you not see that Cata and MOP only sold a little over 3 million copys and at the time each had "12mil/9mil subs"

    Not everyone owns the current xpac. Its rough numbers based off of the sells of the last 2 xpac and its all about the first quarter of WOD. So your fail math comment is pointless since once again this is just for the first quarter of WOD and based off the sells of the other 2 xpac's.
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  14. #14
    Dreadlord Morbownz's Avatar
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    I am way more interested in how many subs there will be towards the end of WoD. But if I had to guess, I'd say 7-9 mill.
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  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Morbownz View Post
    I am way more interested in how many subs there will be towards the end of WoD. But if I had to guess, I'd say 7-9 mill.
    or it turns out that there is loads of mistakes and another long tier at the end again, could easily be 5-6. They have done a long tier so many times now so never say never, i would say its another cata, starts great, and ends up as trash, i would honestly say that after wod they wont be over 7M, thats for sure, thats my guess.
    Last edited by niker99; 2014-08-12 at 02:21 AM.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Number1gentleman View Post
    lol fail math... it doesn't work like that imo.
    Right now there are 6.8mil subs, let's assume 1.5mil bought the WoD digital upgrade, that means ONLY 1.5mil will be playing WoD. while the rest (6.8mil - 1.5mill = 5.3mil) are stuck with MoP expansion. but then why would people play old contents after they release WoD expansion *shrugs*
    Digital upgrade pre-release numbers are hardly a good estimate...All it tells us is the number of guaranteed sales thus far. WoW won't lose subscribers going into WoD, not after this much time of SoO and MoP.

  17. #17
    8 million tops IMO.

    I think the problem is they have had way too much time with no new content and people unsubbing. That will lead to quite a few having enough time to "get over" the game and not come back. I know a few people who have been playing since TBC who are at the point now where they've lost interest in the game b/c they've been unsubbed for so long. Unlike previous expansions where they unsubbed for a little bit near the end or stayed subbed just for that mount but didn't play much....this one has given no reason to be subbed at all during this down time.

    On top of that they are going to need a GREAT deal to get people who have never played going. Not many people (in today's handheld-tablet-smartphone-cheap-game-world) want to dish out $20 for a starter pack (vanilla, TBC, Wrath, Cata), another $30-$40 for MoP, and then an upped price of $50 for the new expansion. They really need to just make a box set of vanilla through MoP for like $20 and then the expansion or new subs are going to be hard to get.

    If this expansion goes as light on content as it seems it will (by the way it's starting) and has a long end tier again....I can see it dipping to 4 million by the end of WoD.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by orangelemonrain View Post
    Even 8 million seems wishful at this stage. The game is too old to suddenly raise up 2-3 million subs after an expansion no matter how good it is.
    I'd expect that's pretty easy, but they won't stay for more than a couple of months probably.

  19. #19
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  20. #20
    Does it matter? Within one quarter, we'll see the usual gang of idiots on here, raging about how the game is dying and how upset they are that the sub number is anything greater than 4. Because the best thing to do with something you really, really, really enjoy is to wish it would disappear.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jewbacca View Post
    The reply was not from a tired employee or something. It was an automatic response from an email bot. So it's a grammatical error in their email template. Blizzard can not into English.

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