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  1. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by Conscious View Post
    7 Million.

    People keep forgetting we've still got another quarter to go, one that's most definitely going to have more losses and very possibly bring us into the five million range.

    People thinking 8 or 9 million, well, wishful thinking at best.

    Yep. around 7 million. By the end of WoD we'll probably be down to 4 to 4.5 million.

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by Conscious View Post
    7 Million.

    People keep forgetting we've still got another quarter to go, one that's most definitely going to have more losses and very possibly bring us into the five million range.

    People thinking 8 or 9 million, well, wishful thinking at best.
    9,5 million. Just to annoy guys like you who put a link to a refund in their signatures.

    Or how mentally sick some WoW haters really are ...

    I think someone who puts a refund link in a fan forum of WoW should be banned for good. Such a poster simply has no place here. It is an insult to the fans, the game itself and its designers.
    Last edited by BenBos; 2014-08-12 at 09:44 PM.

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Jtbrig7390 View Post
    ...Did you not see that Cata and MOP only sold a little over 3 million copys and at the time each had "12mil/9mil subs"
    Yeah but wow is free in China so they don't have to pay for expansions. That is why the numbers sold are so dissimilar in subs vs number of expansions sold.

    It will almost certainly will go up in WoD. No real way to guess. We will have to see what loss they sustain in the next quarter.
    I'm a Forsaken. I kill firstborns while their mamas watch. I turn cities into salt. I even, when I feel like it, rip the souls from little girls, and from now till kingdom come, the only thing you can count on in your existence is never understanding why.

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    9,5 million. Just to annoy guys like you who put a link to a refund in their signatures.

    Or how mentally sick some WoW haters really are ...

    I think someone who puts a refund link in a fan forum of WoW should be banned for good. Such a poster simply has no place here. It is an insult to the fans, the game itself and its designers.
    Do you honestly think that people will annoyed at you saying 9.5million or do you think they'll just think "Oh look it's BenBos talking shit again"? But on a serious note why do you think sub numbers will be 9.5million? Or are you just trying to, in your own words, annoy him?

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by Deadite View Post
    Yeah but wow is free in China so they don't have to pay for expansions. That is why the numbers sold are so dissimilar in subs vs number of expansions sold.

    It will almost certainly will go up in WoD. No real way to guess. We will have to see what loss they sustain in the next quarter.
    Just incase u didn't know free isn't free in china. They pay by the time like a phone time card and get all xpac's upfrount. Unless u ment that then mybad.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    9,5 million. Just to annoy guys like you who put a link to a refund in their signatures.

    Or how mentally sick some WoW haters really are ...

    I think someone who puts a refund link in a fan forum of WoW should be banned for good. Such a poster simply has no place here. It is an insult to the fans, the game itself and its designers.
    The Wow Haters as you put it are no where near as bad as those who white knight the living shit out of blizzard and think they shit gold.
    My Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/user/jtbrig7390
    Recent Video Upload: The Last of Us Remastered Multiplayer - Supply Raid "Jtbrig7390" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOrpuvXVXO0

    My Twitch Streaming Ps4 Games All The Time: http://www.twitch.tv/jtbrig7390

  6. #46
    Currently about 3,000,000 subs in NA. According to the 1.5 million preorders for that is still only 50% of pop. Seems a little low this close to release. I for one will not be committing to WoD until I see more details on 6.1

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by Jtbrig7390 View Post
    Just incase u didn't know free isn't free in china. They pay by the time like a phone time card and get all xpac's upfrount. Unless u ment that then mybad.
    I of course meant the game is free. I know they pay per minute.
    I'm a Forsaken. I kill firstborns while their mamas watch. I turn cities into salt. I even, when I feel like it, rip the souls from little girls, and from now till kingdom come, the only thing you can count on in your existence is never understanding why.

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by Deadite View Post
    I of course meant the game is free. I know they pay per minute.
    If they pay per min then its not free....Thats my point and why they are counted as subs.
    My Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/user/jtbrig7390
    Recent Video Upload: The Last of Us Remastered Multiplayer - Supply Raid "Jtbrig7390" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOrpuvXVXO0

    My Twitch Streaming Ps4 Games All The Time: http://www.twitch.tv/jtbrig7390

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by Jtbrig7390 View Post
    If they pay per min then its not free....Thats my point and why they are counted as subs.
    We seem to be misunderstanding each other. I mean they don't have to buy WoW the actual game. They get that for free and therefore all expansions are gratis. As far as i understand it they don't specifically pay for Warcraft time but just time in the internet cafes? Blizzard counts anyone as a sub who loggs into the game via that method atleast once per month. Calling them 'Subs' is just PR spin to make the game sounds bigger that it actually is.

    Since you see to have a firm grasp of this i don't get why you would post about far less expansions sales vs sub numbers? Not that any of this is relevant to the question at hand.
    I'm a Forsaken. I kill firstborns while their mamas watch. I turn cities into salt. I even, when I feel like it, rip the souls from little girls, and from now till kingdom come, the only thing you can count on in your existence is never understanding why.

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    9,5 million. Just to annoy guys like you who put a link to a refund in their signatures.

    Or how mentally sick some WoW haters really are ...
    Oh how Part B needs to see Part A was written by the same person.
    Blizzard has forgone the route of taking risks with their stories and has decided that
    pandering to the rebellious pre-teen mindset is a safer bet. Thanks Metzen.

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by Deadite View Post
    We seem to be misunderstanding each other. I mean they don't have to buy WoW the actual game. They get that for free and therefore all expansions are gratis. As far as i understand it they don't specifically pay for Warcraft time but just time in the internet cafes? Blizzard counts anyone as a sub who loggs into the game via that method atleast once per month. Calling them 'Subs' is just PR spin to make the game sounds bigger that it actually is.

    Since you see to have a firm grasp of this i don't get why you would post about far less expansions sales vs sub numbers? Not that any of this is relevant to the question at hand.
    We mite have misunderstood each other so mybad on that.
    My Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/user/jtbrig7390
    Recent Video Upload: The Last of Us Remastered Multiplayer - Supply Raid "Jtbrig7390" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOrpuvXVXO0

    My Twitch Streaming Ps4 Games All The Time: http://www.twitch.tv/jtbrig7390

  12. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by Jtbrig7390 View Post

    The Wow Haters as you put it are no where near as bad as those who white knight the living shit out of blizzard and think they shit gold.
    Sorry, but there are NO excuses here to put up Signatures with a link to have refunds in a WoW fan forum.

    As stated, these actions against a game expansion that is not even officially launched is showing an insult for the game developpers and its many fans and actually provokes hate.

    It shows a rotten mentality - from the usual suspects - and the users doing it or even supporting this have no place in these WoW fan forums.

    The rules are quite clear on this.

  13. #53
    TBC fans will probably return in droves, but it won't be enough to stop the slow decline. (Which is normal for any OLD game.)

    6.5 Million by the end of WoD (before 6.0)
    It ought to spike to 8.5 Million shortly after WoD launches and begin to decline again once players have have done all the quests. I don't see retired Vanilla and TBC players coming back to raid, many of them have careers and kids now.

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    9,5 million. Just to annoy guys like you who put a link to a refund in their signatures.

    Or how mentally sick some WoW haters really are ...

    I think someone who puts a refund link in a fan forum of WoW should be banned for good. Such a poster simply has no place here. It is an insult to the fans, the game itself and its designers.
    that reminds me
    pre-ordering recommendations: from all over the place

  15. #55
    7 mln - people underestimating number of people who keep being subbs and already bought one of 1.5 mln preordered WoDs. - and will jump down constantly after that

    my estimation is another 1 mln subs lost before wod winter launch then a little bump up but very soon - 1-2 months after expansion lands drop below 7 mln again

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Do you honestly think that people will annoyed at you saying 9.5million or do you think they'll just think "Oh look it's BenBos talking shit again"? But on a serious note why do you think sub numbers will be 9.5million? Or are you just trying to, in your own words, annoy him?

    ---- > I am pretty sure it is annoying for someone who puts a link to a WOW product refund in his signature every time he posts on a forum for WOW fans :-). Such guys are pretty unstable when something positive is posted about WOW... is my view.

    Of course I am serious about those 8.5/9.5 million subs in the future.

    Lots of factors calculated in like:

    - WOD marketing hype.
    - Movie starting hype.
    - Hearthstone will not be the last game putting the name "Warcraft" back into gamers' mental hard disks.
    - The end of the free to play waves for MMO's not worthy a subscription.
    - The lack of decent alternatives in the MMO field has now been what ? 8.5 years ? People know it by now.

    WOW has a LOT of life left in it with 1 billion dollars revenue in 2014 too, which means resources are still vastly superior to everything else out there.

    Most important factor is perhaps this: anyone still following WOW is potentially a player in the long run.

    If you want something other than playing the 8th version of COD, the same map of LOL during 3 years or the latest Farmville 2, or quick iPad games, chances are that people will go back to long term playing things like MMO's.

    "It is an up and down cycle" and since WOW has the lion market share of MMO's - even with fixed subscriptions - I see a bright future ahead.

    ---

    Subscriptions will rise with WOD. It's a fact. And after that comes the movie, the next expansion and a new interest in long term on line play...

    The foundation of this future was done in the new global server structure of WOW during the last 1.5 years. People are unaware of that. But I am not your ordinary guy either.

    Hint: MMO's Always died a few months after their introduction on single server play. Blizzard solved that problem once and for all with their back office. That right there is a milestone for future MMO play.
    Last edited by BenBos; 2014-08-13 at 09:40 AM.

  17. #57
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    My guess would be about 7.5 mil around release. I expect a significant drop-off after the first 6 months though (back down to 6.5 mil). I like most of the gameplay changes they're making for WoD (ability pruning for example) but I could see it occurring that people might perceive it as "dumbing down the game".

    I should add that as far as expansion releases go, the people I've spoken to about it seem much less excited this time around and are adopting a wait & see approach to it.

  18. #58
    the people who expect more than 8 million subs are probably the same people who expected Wod to release in May/June.

    Absolutely delusional.

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by Natiry427 View Post
    the people who expect more than 8 million subs are probably the same people who expected Wod to release in May/June.

    Absolutely delusional.
    The last subscription number was 7.6 Million. Due to 2 new MMO releases who actually have the usual attantion span of 2 months ... and were launched in the last months of MoP that figure dropped to 6.8 million.

    In fact all those who do NOT expect 8 million, underestimate the market position of a game with these kinds of numbers after 10 years still.

    These days games are bought and played for 3 days to 6 weeks, after which most are dumped (let alone they would charge subscriptions for playing just ONE game).

    I have a feeling we will see a huge rise in WOW players after WOD and the MMO field will grow accordingly. iPad play, Farmville and free MMO thingies are all nice etc, but they have a clear cut limit too.

    Of course there will be drop offs. But the POTENTIAL of people STILL following WOW is enormous. Not only after or because of WOD btw.

    The earlier expansions gave a boost of around 500K subs with the game at higher subscriptions, the last expansion gave a boost of 900K or almost double that number. It is pretty clear WOD will beat that returning record again as the locked WOW subs becomes smaller and so the new expansion will recruit a bigger % of returning players compared to the basic subscriptions.

    If you would take that logic, WOW after WOD could clock in at 8.5 million, probably more. The probablity depends on the external factors I cited above. I think general MMO play will return in 1 to 2 years.

    If it doesn't, some new forms of long term on line gaming entertainment would need to come in. But with the 3D VR technology launching soon, I think the 3D PC is still the main market and MMO's (and so WOW who is by far the market leader) are still very valid alternatives.
    Last edited by BenBos; 2014-08-13 at 10:05 AM.

  20. #60
    If Blizz was honest and most of the sub losses in the last quarters were in the east then i don't see why numbers should go up much with WoD.

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