The 1st quarter post WOD, what will the subs be at?

[Mister K]

Even 8 million seems wishful at this stage. The game is too old to suddenly raise up 2-3 million subs after an expansion no matter how good it is.

This, however this expansion is rumored to have strong nostalgic feeling, so maybe old schoolers will return?

[BenBos]

This, however this expansion is rumored to have strong nostalgic feeling, so maybe old schoolers will return?

People in here underestimate the HUGE number of players that WOW gathered over the last 10 years.

You have a market of 20-25 million (ex) WOW fans who played and lost months/years of their precious lives in Azeroth.

It all depends on the marketing and overall call back nostalgia to make it work.


You DO know that your search for eternal youth and young years is responsible for older matchbox cars reaching 100+ dollars in value

With EACH passing year that WOW puts out, it gathers millions of these guys in the long run.

The Warcraft franchise will run for decades to come. Hell Azeroth was born 20 years ago already, a great deal of these posters were not even born yet.

As the lack of decent on line long term play will become apparent in the following years, I am pretty sure MMO play will return with a vengeance with 3D VR technology. And WOW has still the lion's share of adult MMO play.

I thought Destiny could conquer that MMORPG market, but as I played it, it turns out to address the male 16 year old shooter crowd with the attention span of 4 weeks playing times...

So a LOT of people will be surprised by the staying power of an updated online WOW MMORPG...

A free to play WOW would very easely pass the 15 million bracket.

[Gothicshark]

The subs will be at a number I do not know, as I can't tell the future like so many others in this thread : /
Share your powers of time with me...

It's easy, since we already have a lot of data. By using the current data we can build a model predicting the future based on the past.

ie


Now of course WoD could shatter the prediction by being worse or better. However the current trend seems stable enough to draw out a prediction of when WOW will drop below 1 million subs.

On my prediction model I put WOD in the 4th Quarter.

[jayk]

Why the hell are you people so obsessed with wow's numbers? As long as there are 100,000 subscribers you have no need to worry. Period.

[BenBos]

It's easy, since we already have a lot of data. By using the current data we can build a model predicting the future based on the past.

ie


Now of course WoD could shatter the prediction by being worse or better. However the current trend seems stable enough to draw out a prediction of when WOW will drop below 1 million subs.

On my prediction model I put WOD in the 4th Quarter.

Your INVENTED data are a laugh as a free to play WOW would gather 15 million worldwide in just 2 weeks time.

Other factors include the new 3D VR technology putting open world MMORPG play at the front end again (compared to the current success of iPAd play and limited 2D/3D games like LOL).

So you made yourself quite ridiculous by not knowing what the future has in stock for Azeroth.

It is pretty clear that those who control this massive popular Lore of World of Warcraft have all tools in hands to tackle the future technology and opportunities.

Ever thought about what Azeroth looked like in 1994 ? And compare it with the WOD launch with the new cross server backbone technology and full rendered open worlds ?

By 2018, we will have full 3D rendered VR worlds with helmets. In fact present day WOW is already running on it at Irvine....Still convinced about your predictions ?

[Pann]

Your INVENTED data are a laugh as a free to play WOW would gather 15 million in just 2 weeks time.

Other factors include the new 3D VR technology putting open world MMORPG play at the front end again (compared to the current success of iPAd play and limited 2D/3D games like LOL).

So you made yourself quite ridiculous by not knowing what the future has in stock.

He openly states that it is a prediction. He doesn't say anything about F2P but isn't F2P where games that have failed go to die? © BenBos 2011-2014.

Virtual reality has not taken off at all yet and MMOs are traditionally behind the technological curve in order to appeal the largest market. It would seem that your prediction is just as, if not more, fanciful.

[Deleted]

It's easy, since we already have a lot of data. By using the current data we can build a model predicting the future based on the past.

ie


Now of course WoD could shatter the prediction by being worse or better. However the current trend seems stable enough to draw out a prediction of when WOW will drop below 1 million subs.

On my prediction model I put WOD in the 4th Quarter.

Your prediction has a double as big time scale as the drop in the last 4 years. I think you should not forget that the drop numbers are getting steeper and steeper.

I wonder about the peak you predict for 2016.. a new expansion? And why doesnt it peek as much in 2018 then?

[BenBos]

Your prediction has a double as big time scale as the drop in the last 4 years. I think you should not forget that the drop numbers are getting steeper and steeper.

I wonder about the peak you predict for 2016.. a new expansion? And why doesnt it peek as much in 2018 then?

Actually the drop numbers are NOT getting steeper and steeper.

Over the past 5 quarters it stayed within a 10% limit. Clearly showing a leveling off, with a normal impact of WOD launch, you'll see the flattening of the subscriptions will reach 7-8 quarters in all.



It is enough that MMO's will take off again to see long term growth by "THE" MMO that is still by far the BIGGEST of them all.

I can understand 2016 with the movie launching, but all the rest is pure fake and not even related to newer technology or innovations within Irvine.

The MMO industry suffered BIG time over these past 3 years (iPad play, free to play things with LIMITED playing surfaces etc...), but chances are HUGE MMORPG play will get a boost with the 3D VR technology just around the corner.

[imnotatroll]

Really? We're having future SUBS DOWN WOW DYING SKY FALLING threads now?

[Gothicshark]

Your INVENTED data are a laugh as a free to play WOW would gather 15 million worldwide in just 2 weeks time.

Other factors include the new 3D VR technology putting open world MMORPG play at the front end again (compared to the current success of iPAd play and limited 2D/3D games like LOL).

So you made yourself quite ridiculous by not knowing what the future has in stock for Azeroth.

It is pretty clear that those who control this massive popular Lore of World of Warcraft have all tools in hands to tackle the future technology and opportunities.

Ever thought about what Azeroth looked like in 1994 ? And compare it with the WOD launch with the new cross server backbone technology and full rendered open worlds ?

By 2018, we will have full 3D rendered VR worlds with helmets. In fact present day WOW is already running on it at Irvine....Still convinced about your predictions ?

My prediction is based purely on the past, it is set with median times between expansion releases, and uses the current growth curve as a baseline. New technologies and marketing strategies will definitely change the data, as will the quality of game-play in as of yet unreleased content. My prediction is reliable only until the data is changed.

As it is using the current trends we have at least 5 more years until the game drops below 1 million subs.

Yes at some point I do expect WOW to go F2P, however by that point Blizzard will have a new Cash Cow prepared.

[Deleted]

Actually the drop numbers are NOT getting steeper and steeper.

They are. You need to add the peaks to your line, and they become a curve. Seems you just drew a uncurved line between Q4 2010 and Q2 2014.

[Pann]

By 2018, we will have full 3D rendered VR worlds with helmets. In fact present day WOW is already running on it at Irvine....Still convinced about your predictions ?

This is a fact? Really? Is it a fact as in an actual fact or a BenBos fact?

[Zoneseek]

people knock pandas and pokemon but at least that was something. wod appears to be the most content void expansion yet.

[Gothicshark]

Your prediction has a double as big time scale as the drop in the last 4 years. I think you should not forget that the drop numbers are getting steeper and steeper.

I wonder about the peak you predict for 2016.. a new expansion? And why doesnt it peek as much in 2018 then?

yes, expansions, with current rate losses, it's just playing with past data. And yes they have said they want to release expansions faster than every 2 years, however that is the current trend.

- - - Updated - - -

Really? We're having future SUBS DOWN WOW DYING SKY FALLING threads now?

WOW has been in decline since Cataclysm. It's not ' WOW DYING SKY FALLING'. Since WOW will last at least 12 years after it goes F2P. That said gone are the days of 12 million active subscriptions.

[Apexis]

It will probably pop a couple million and then go back down after the first patch or two, unless of course by some miracle they have more interesting content or something to keep people long term (outside of raiding and PVP) engaged in the world besides TI treasure hunting and the garrison. Even they extend quest will eventually go to the waste side, some will probably do it one or two time through, then stop. Those that don't play between tiers will also be gone until the next one arrives. I am more interested in how many are going to start play. With only 1.5 million pre-orders last quarter it will be interest how many bother to start or wait until closer to 6.1 when Blizzard promises flying to come back. Most people that don't raid will be in the bunch.

[Gimlix]

I find the level of optimism to be excessive. Since Cataclysm launched the rate of loss has been a constant curve, sure the up surge with the release of MoP pushed the curve a bit, but the rate of loss remains constant. I expect the same level of up surge and then the loss rate will resume.

Lol of course not, WoW gets smaller so will the decline.

[Deleted]

We going to see a big gain or might it it remain current numbers? I suspect we see 8 million.

The start of an expansion has typically gone up by 500k to 1mill. If it goes higher than that then Blizzard have done an excellent job.

[Pann]

Lol of course not, WoW gets smaller so will the decline.

Why? WoW is smaller now than it was in Cata and it still lost more subscribers than it did in Cata.

[BenBos]

This is a fact? Really? Is it a fact as in an actual fact or a BenBos fact?

http://venturebeat.com/2014/06/14/ho...ing-interview/

Perhaps visiting less these forums and reading about the newest development kits going out to game companies would be a nice change of pace.

So without any serious knowledge about future developments, no one can predict anything decently from data "of the past"'.

Or you might take the 1994 data of Azeroth to predict WOW too...

[Chingylol]

I don't think WoW will top 8 million again, even with the new expac. 7.5-7.75 is my guess.

I really can't see that many people coming back for WoD like we saw for MoP.