The 1st quarter post WOD, what will the subs be at?

[Deleted]

And the rest lost ALL their subscribers ...

They didn't.

[BenBos]

They didn't.

They went free to play in order to hide them. So no officially subscribers anymore with this...

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/wow.../1100-6421191/

as the end result.

WOW dominating - as it did before. If you would take out the non western MMO's the % you would even reach far above 50%

The JOKE is that these western MMO's went free to play and still linguer far behind than a game where you need to pay 180 dollars per year to just access the servers ....

--------------------------------------------
On topic: my prediction is 8.5-9.5 million will be playing worldwide at the WOD launch.

Reason is simple: IF you really STILL want to play an MMORPG, there is only WOW (and EVE as an alternative). The rest is begging but in vain for most of us - we have seen it all.

The rest in the West is mostly playing non MMO games, from Dota games, to shooters, to iPads, to Diablo 3 and other Hearthstones and ditto Farmvilles.

It amuses me that GW2 with just a PAY to play price sold 3.5 million, while a very mediocre Diablo 3 stands at 20 million+ in about the same age bracket. Yep D3 already had an expansion, but it shows MMO play - even in B2P format - is simply shrinking.

[Deleted]

WOW dominating - as it did before.

Actually, on account of loosing half its player base, it's dominating at half the strength it did before.

[Deleted]

10 millions !
no questions asked!

[Super Kami Dende]

The thing I find funny about threads like these is People that enjoy WoW couldn't really give a fuck what the sub numbers are like.

the only people that truly care about sub numbers on these forums are the morons that "hate" WoW and need a way to be like "HEY HEY GUISES OTHER PEOPLE HATE WOW COZ SUBS ARE GOING DOWN HAI GUISES! SHIT GAME LOL"

- - - Updated - - -

Actually, on account of loosing half its player base, it's dominating at half the strength it did before.

Dominating is still dominating.

[Deleted]

Dominating is still dominating.

Pretending everything's peachy when you lose half the playerbase is still silly.

[BenBos]

Pretending everything's peachy when you lose half the playerbase is still silly.

I didn't say everything is peachy. I said in an industry that almost crashed (certainly in subscriptions), WOW is doing great as it still takes the Lion's share of the MMO market in revenue.

While others brag (sic) that Blizzard lost 30% of WOW revenue on average (depends if they launched an expansion that year), the others crashed down the Lane with the end result being WOW having even more market domination.

Which confirms the THEORY: you do need to look at the complete video game industry and the MMO part, to analyse the relative success of the game in question.

Blizzard can't do anything about the fact that MMO's are LESS played than other forms of on line play.

Period.

----------------IMPORTANT ----

that's also why they put Titan on hold and are NOW launching games like Hearthstone and Heroes...

... with the END result Blizzard's revenue in 2014 went UP by 247 million dollars in just the first 6 months of 2014, compared to 2013


I will repeat it: people who want to analyse WOW subscriptions without referring to the overall MMO and gaming industry are intellectual hishonest.

More than in any other thread - by this simple sentence in italics above - you can weed out the analists from the hate trolls.

[Morthulo]

We going to see a big gain or might it it remain current numbers? I suspect we see 8 million.

Nobody knows because we can't see into the future! Stop asking this ridicules questions...

[Deleted]

It amuses me that GW2 with just a PAY to play price sold 3.5 million, while a very mediocre Diablo 3 stands at 20 million+ in about the same age bracket. Yep D3 already had an expansion, but it shows MMO play - even in B2P format - is simply shrinking.

And this is another lie from the Warcraft-Boaster.

1. GW2 doesnt do expansions they release regular content updates, usually monthly.

2. Diablo3 and GW2 are in two completely different games categories, so comparing them is retarded.

3. GW2 has made very healthy profits and has not suffered any significant drop in players. In fact it still grows during some periods. That links back to the regular content updates. No subs mean players can leave it for a month and then drop back in when something new is introduced.

And just to show u how busy GW2 still is at this time heres a vid of the open PvP on a typical Friday night on my realm...



That is just a vid showing 1 location on 1 of 4 open world pvp maps. I know that our realms TS channel will have around 200 players online most nights of the week. Bear in mind only about 1 in 3 players use TS then that will give u a TRUE picture of how many people r playing GW2.

How many Wow realms even have this many players even online at this time?

NOTE: that vid was taken within the past 2 weeks and every nameplate u see is a player, both red and green.

NOTE2: also forgot to mention that my realm is a low-pop realm.

[BenBos]

And this is another lie from the Warcraft-Boaster.


How many Wow realms even have this many players even online at this time?

Since WOW has NOW connected realm play both in CRZ and real time connection mode, the number of WOW players playing together 24/7 is dozens of times more than 200...and so ... your remark is IRRELEVANT for WOW 2014.

You know WOW, the game with the OPEN world across zones play where players from different realms are joining other players from other realms without loading screens and complete seamlessly

It is only with such a post that you start realising how easy it is to score an own goal Ende ...



Now comes the FAT part Ende... : in WOD the open world PvP zone will be accessed throughout seamless phasing across servers ....

You read that right: no more loading screens for cross server instances in the open world play.

In fact Multi server players will not even be aware of this technology as everything is seamless.

Not bad this new backbone technology is it ? Now tell me when GW2 will launch such trivial things like mounts or real time phasing (on which this Cross Realm mechanic is based on) and then we will talk again. How about THIS for "content" as a change instead of hastely creating a new dude standing in a corner with a question mark above the head.

[Deleted]

Since WOW has NOW connected realm play both in CRZ and real time connection mode, the number of WOW players playing together 24/7 is dozens of times more than 200...

So in otherwords no.

Thanks for agreeing with me.

If ur gonna answer with complete bullshit instead of answering the question then dont expect to be taken seriously.

Your preaching that GW2 is dead is utter and complete bullshit, their realms are so much busier than Wows thats its not even funny. You have no data to prove any of your lies and invented crap.

Show me a video recorded of a busy location on your realm in the past 2 weeks and maybe we can discuss the reality of realm populations.

[BenBos]

So in otherwords no.

Thanks for agreeing with me.

If ur gonna answer with complete bullshit instead of answering the question then dont expect to be taken seriously.

Your preaching that GW2 is dead is utter and complete bullshit, their realms are so much busier than Wows thats its not even funny. You have no data to prove any of your lies and invented crap.

Show me a video recorded of a busy location on your realm in the past 2 weeks and maybe we can discuss the reality of realm populations.

Apparently you can't read: the number would be more than 2000 players playing together as connected realm play and CRZ, solves this kind of questions for good.

Across the 500 worldwide realms of WOW, this individual server population problem is solved per continent (US/EU/Asia/China).

Your argument does no longer make sense in 2014 for WOW.

I am not saying GW2 is dead, all I am saying is that your question has become irrelevant for individual WOW servers.

Your question comes almost 2 years too late.

I guess it is time to play WOW again to avoid further embarassement

[Deleted]

Apparently you can't read: the number would be more than 2000 players playing together as connected realm play, solves this kind of questions for good.

And like i said... your answer is bullshit.

IM ASKING HOW MANY ON YOUR REALM.

Thats one realm. ONE

Dodging the question makes u look like an idiot.

[Sansnom]

We going to see a big gain or might it it remain current numbers? I suspect we see 8 million.

What happened to Jaylock? I though he is the one who starts these post. And where is the poll. It is not the same without the poll.

[BenBos]

And like i said... your answer is bullshit.

IM ASKING HOW MANY ON YOUR REALM.

Thats one realm. ONE

Dodging the question makes u look like an idiot.

But play in WOW is now through cross realm play dude. That's not dodging the question. it is simply showing that our realms are Always CONNECTED, both in CRZ AND/ OR in connected play.

Do you think I am gonna manually count which avatar is from which server in Goldshire ??? Because "my realm" is connected to other realms seamlessly ALL of the time ... Got that dude ?

/who : 50 ... or the maximum that can be displayed in Elwyn Forest at 2 PM...
update: Hellfire: /who: 50(max displayable) (and only displaying Alliance), that's a TBC zone... more than 7 years old at 2.30 PM...

Your question was rendered IRRELEVANT because of the new backbone structure within WOW. Now THAT is why WOW is superior: Always the latest server technology even with a 10 year old Legacy system.

I think it is REALLY HIGH time you should enter Elwyn Forest and do the count yourself.

Next time when making comments on WOW ... in a WOW forum, at least enter the game...

[Deleted]

*snip*

U sir r useless at discussing anything like a sensible human being.

A simple question u refuse to answer. Its actually straightforward to establish a fair assessment of online numbers on a realm in Wow.

Congratulations on becoming the most ignored member of this forum.

[Pann]

The thing I find funny about threads like these is People that enjoy WoW couldn't really give a fuck what the sub numbers are like.

the only people that truly care about sub numbers on these forums are the morons that "hate" WoW and need a way to be like "HEY HEY GUISES OTHER PEOPLE HATE WOW COZ SUBS ARE GOING DOWN HAI GUISES! SHIT GAME LOL"

So why are you here?

[HamsterFabulous]

Thinking that WoD will bring numbers back in the 9 million mark is living in a fantasy world. If you check previous expansion numbers, yes, the releases have always marked a jump in subs - but never a jump over 10%. I'd say it's mostly around the 7-8% mark.

We know we're currently at 6.8 mil. However, those numbers won't stay put for three whole months. WoW will mostly likely continue to bleed for the next 2 months. After which, with the new patch, and hype for WoD, subscribers will slowly come back, peaking at release. I'd say it's likely that in the next two month, the game will likely lose another 100-200k subs.

So we'll be sitting at 6.6-6.7 mil when the hype truly gets stuff moving. I'd expect a 10% bump from WoD, and that's being generous. So I'd say 7.3 mil in the two first months after WoD is released.

Trying to guesstimate how the game will fare during WoD's lifetime is just too uncertain to discuss, really. It depends on the content and decisions Blizzard will take. We know it will decline, though, and past the two first months, most players who came back will get tired of the game. So while I won't make any predictions far in time, I'd say the new year will see WoW dip under the 7 million mark again.

[BenBos]

Thinking that WoD will bring numbers back in the 9 million mark is living in a fantasy world. If you check previous expansion numbers, yes, the releases have always marked a jump in subs - but never a jump over 10%. I'd say it's mostly around the 7-8% mark.

We know we're currently at 6.8 mil. However, those numbers won't stay put for three whole months. WoW will mostly likely continue to bleed for the next 2 months. After which, with the new patch, and hype for WoD, subscribers will slowly come back, peaking at release. I'd say it's likely that in the next two month, the game will likely lose another 100-200k subs.

So we'll be sitting at 6.6-6.7 mil when the hype truly gets stuff moving. I'd expect a 10% bump from WoD, and that's being generous. So I'd say 7.3 mil in the two first months after WoD is released.

Trying to guesstimate how the game will fare during WoD's lifetime is just too uncertain to discuss, really. It depends on the content and decisions Blizzard will take. We know it will decline, though, and past the two first months, most players who came back will get tired of the game. So while I won't make any predictions far in time, I'd say the new year will see WoW dip under the 7 million mark again.

The last expansion caused 900K plus at launch. The earlier ones (with already highest subs...) had an impact of zero to 500K...

However the situation is complete different now.

In 2012 there were still more subs, so the potential of adding % is bigger now.

Also the free to play waves that hit NEW recruiting in WOW was the biggest between early 2012 and mid 2013.

You see a much more stable subs number in the last 5 quarters.

--- > The 800K loss came after 4 quarters where nothing moved, which explains why the free to play games lost their effect already.

2 NEW hyped MMO's launched in that last quarter though: EOS and Wildstar. Both didn't break any pots, but it certainly HAD a limited impact.


The next WOD launch will appeal to a lot of players to return, more than in MoP. No new MMO's to launch and frankly everything that could have turned free to play WAS turned free over the years.


The last man standing (with subs) will play as an advantage as of now. Recruiting will come back as will the people who want to see the new expansion.

WOD could bring back a LOT of people.

And when these people will see just how good CRZ and cross realm play actually works, they will be surprised at how active WOW changed over the last 2 years.

After posting in another thread I just went to visit some world zones at 2.00 PM: 50 Alliance(the max displayable in Hellfire), 45 in the next zone of ... TBC ... a 7+ year old expansion ... If you imagine WOW has 100+ world zones and in some of these zones you now have MORE than MAXED out populations PER side on a working day ..., it is baffling.

I even participated in the world PvP ,in Hellfire around the 3 towers to help some early 60's. At one moment we had 8 Alliance fighting 5 Horde ... on 2.30 pm till 03.PM.

This was not even possible 3 or 4 years ago with 12 million subs ....

These inter realm mechanics WILL have their impact on returning players, both in instances and in world play.

The question is only: are people still interested in MMORPG's ? because if they do, they WILL return to WOW.

That's the core question really. WOW still has 36% of the market BUT ... frankly a LOT of those games in the top 10 are not even games that are much played in the West (L1, B@S, Tera,...) so if you count them out: you come to a 1 in 2 situation: 1 out of 2 plays WOW or more.

WOW is the MMO to go to for the long haul. The question is will it be the game for the long haul as MMORPG's are becoming niche again.

Like it was before WOW.

I found the answer already. Hearthstone is a success, Diablo 3 was great (at launch), I still log in every day to Farmville 2 but nothing beats WOW in the LONG run.

WOW is the game to return to, it is still very much THE reference for playing MMORPG's. But it is no longer the reference for all games (as it was in 2005-2008). But iPad games are soooooo hollow really ....

[Deleted]

On topic: my prediction is 8.5-9.5 million will be playing worldwide at the WOD launch.

If we take this accurate data below

BC; January 2007 - Q4 '06 to Q1 '07 - Net Gain of 500k
WotLK; November 2008 - Q3 '08 to Q4 '08 - Net Gain of 500k
Cata; December 2010 - Q3 '10 to Q4 '10 - No net gain
MoP; September 2012 - Q2 '12 to Q3 '12 - Net Gain of 900k

And add the % increases

BC - Gain of 500k - 8m-8.5m = +6%
WotLK - Gain of 500k - 11m-11.5m = +4.5%
Cata - No gain - 12m = 0%
MoP - Gain of 900k - 9.1m-10m = +10%

Benbos prediction - Gain 2.7m - 6.8m - 9.5m = +40%

And thats using the current Wow population when it will be lower because we have at least 1 more Conference Call between now and WoD release.