Page 1 of 18
1
2
3
11
... LastLast
  1. #1
    Deleted

    Predictive Curve for the future of WoW Subscriptions



    My prediction is that come Q3 2015 (around the 2 million mark) WoW will stop subscriptions and start releasing patch sized 'Expansions' with the frequency of current Patches and charged for.
    Last edited by mmocd841b653eb; 2014-09-12 at 10:25 AM.

  2. #2


    Mod Edit: Please add something constructive to the discussion.
    Last edited by mmoc99cfbcce04; 2014-09-10 at 09:12 AM.

  3. #3
    The Patient Merpish's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    Merpland
    Posts
    345
    Quote Originally Posted by Thirdofherne View Post
    It's all in the mathematics...


    My prediction is that come Q3 2015 (around the 2 million mark) WoW will be made Free-To-Play and patch sized 'Expansions' will be released with the frequency of current Patches and charged for as such.
    Why would WoW go free to play with 2 MILLION people still subbed, that's still a huge profit for Blizzard, the only time it would ever go f2p is when the sub numbers drop well below a million.

    Why was SWTOR considered a success at 1 million, but WoW a failure at 2 Million?
    Everyone on the internet is a dishonest actor.

  4. #4
    Titan Gumboy's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Lost in Space
    Posts
    11,649
    Why do you have them at zero subs in 2016? Do you actually believe that? Even if they went "Free to play" they would still have a sub option :P

    - - - Updated - - -

    By the way, math does not take into account things like "Hardcore fans" that will pay til server shut down, things like "People that don't care about 15$ a month" (you know, people that have jobs and are not in financial trouble, things like that)
    You're a towel.

  5. #5
    Scarab Lord Lime's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Over There
    Posts
    4,453
    WoW will have 0 subs in 1-2 years? Hahaha!

    This is exactly what's wrong with these graphs/charts people keep making.

  6. #6
    The Patient Merpish's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    Merpland
    Posts
    345
    Quote Originally Posted by Gumboy View Post
    By the way, math does not take into account things like "Hardcore fans" that will pay til server shut down, things like "People that don't care about 15$ a month" (you know, people that have jobs and are not in financial trouble, things like that)
    This, I am one of those people. I'm very secure financially and $15 a month is nothing for me when it comes to my entertainment budget. I've been playing for so long, just stopping seems dumb, 10 years of my life is a long time, and I'll be here until they take the servers down.
    Everyone on the internet is a dishonest actor.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Gumboy View Post
    Why do you have them at zero subs in 2016? Do you actually believe that?
    There's no way will WoW be over in 2016. I don't think it would have gained many subs and may even have significantly less players... but zero? I really don't see it.

  8. #8
    The Lightbringer Hottage's Avatar
    15+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    The Hague, NL
    Posts
    3,835
    Yea... no. Not really, no.
    Dragonflight: Grand Marshal Hottage
    PC Specs: Ryzen 7 7800X3D | ASUS ROG STRIX B650E-I | 32GB 6000Mhz DDR5 | NZXT Kraken 120
    Inno3D RTX 4080 iChill | Samsung 970 EVO Plus 2TB | NZXT H200 | Corsair SF750 | Windows 11 Pro
    Razer Basilisk Ultimate | Razer Blackwidow V3 | ViewSonic XG2730 | Steam Deck 1TB OLED

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by det View Post
    Time to bookmark this and come back in 12 months, eh? Can you predict if you have a high paid job in the industry because you can make such accurate projections?
    His curve is somewhat accurate. WoD is predicted to lose atleast 3 million subs if the trend from cataclysm and MOP holds true. That puts us at atleast 3.5 million subs, with it most likely going lower. There is only evidence that sub loss will accelerate after the first month of so of the new expansion.

    Cata - 2 million subs lost
    MOP - 3 million subs lost
    Wod - 3-4 million subs?

    There will most likely be a stabilizing curve towards the 2 million mark however, with the 5th expansion only losing maybe half of WOD will lose.
    Last edited by cityguy193; 2014-09-09 at 02:14 PM.
    Chronomancer Club

  10. #10
    Hey guys, I just made my own graph. Hope you like it.

    http://www.destination360.com/north-...teway-arch.jpg

    Infracted. Removed the [IMG] coding as well.
    Last edited by Lochton; 2014-09-17 at 10:43 PM.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Lime View Post
    WoW will have 0 subs in 1-2 years? Hahaha!

    This is exactly what's wrong with these graphs/charts people keep making.
    Learn to comprehend a graphic imo.
    The graphic says 0M as in under 1 million.Can very well be 999.999.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by TheJewishMerp View Post
    This, I am one of those people. I'm very secure financially and $15 a month is nothing for me when it comes to my entertainment budget. I've been playing for so long, just stopping seems dumb, 10 years of my life is a long time, and I'll be here until they take the servers down.
    No you wont. If the game ends up in a state that you no longer find entertaining, then you will leave, as all sane-minded people will. Any false notion of "loyalty" is completely moronic.
    Chronomancer Club

  13. #13
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Thirdofherne View Post
    It's all in the mathematics...
    Yeah, let's extrapolate data without knowing its behaviour. It could just as well taper off slowly or do whatever. I strongly doubt you understood any mathematical concept beyond kindergarten level.

  14. #14
    Except that things don't always work out that way. Most people predicted Apple Computer would be dead over the same kind of time-scale with a virtually identical curve applied to their stock price, product sales, etc. But look at what happened there.

    Not everything in life is simple and linear and predictable. Sure, WoW might well go this route, but there's a chance that the downward spiral will level off rather than continuing to decline.

    Sometimes what's old becomes new and interesting again (the trick is not throwing it away during the "it's old and busted" period), or it's possible that WoW will achieve such a huge critical mass of content that people are able to keep them selves occupied almost indefinitely. Or maybe Blizzard will get bored with it once revenues fall below "only" a billion dollars a year or something and they'll make a disastrous attempt to make a WoW II or something.

    I don't know how it will go, but what I'm most certain of is that it won't be as simple as this graph suggests.

    PF.

  15. #15
    Herald of the Titans Daffan's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Computer Chair
    Posts
    2,763
    Guys i am a scientist and through my extensive knowledge and use of the hubble telescope it looks like as soon as they nerfed heroics in cata subs started dropping, coincidence with easy 5 mans in mob and dropping subs? i think not
    Content drought is a combination of catchup mechanics and no new content.

  16. #16
    The Patient Merpish's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    Merpland
    Posts
    345
    Quote Originally Posted by cityguy193 View Post
    No you wont. If the game ends up in a state that you no longer find entertaining, then you will leave, as all sane-minded people will. Any false notion of "loyalty" is completely moronic.
    Fair.

    But I have an extremely hard time believing that Blizzard is going to make the game "bad." The community on the other hand, may be the only reason I'll ever leave this game. If the change from F2P has shown us anything it is this: F2P doesn't meant the death of a game (most games do well after going F2P and are more profitable than they were when they are subbed) but it is the death of the games community.
    Everyone on the internet is a dishonest actor.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Reliefpfeiler View Post
    Yeah, let's extrapolate data without knowing its behaviour. It could just as well taper off slowly or do whatever. I strongly doubt you understood any mathematical concept beyond kindergarten level.
    There is no evidence indicating that subs will taper off. Dunno why people keep saying it will, its been a trend for 4 years now.
    Chronomancer Club

  18. #18
    The Lightbringer Hottage's Avatar
    15+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    The Hague, NL
    Posts
    3,835
    Quote Originally Posted by Daffan View Post
    Guys i am a scientist and through my extensive knowledge and use of the hubble telescope it looks like as soon as they nerfed heroics in cata subs started dropping, coincidence with easy 5 mans in mob and dropping subs? i think not
    Now this is a guy whom I can have faith in. What are your science predictions?
    Dragonflight: Grand Marshal Hottage
    PC Specs: Ryzen 7 7800X3D | ASUS ROG STRIX B650E-I | 32GB 6000Mhz DDR5 | NZXT Kraken 120
    Inno3D RTX 4080 iChill | Samsung 970 EVO Plus 2TB | NZXT H200 | Corsair SF750 | Windows 11 Pro
    Razer Basilisk Ultimate | Razer Blackwidow V3 | ViewSonic XG2730 | Steam Deck 1TB OLED

  19. #19
    The Patient Merpish's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    Merpland
    Posts
    345
    Quote Originally Posted by cityguy193 View Post
    There is no evidence indicating that subs will taper off. Dunno why people keep saying it will, its been a trend for 4 years now.
    And we can't know that this trend will continue. It's impossible to know if this trend will continue, especially if the 1 expansion a year comes true, which may very well boos overall sub numbers over a period of time.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Fincher View Post
    I think it doesn't take into account the Warcraft Movie which will probably boost sales.
    Unless the movie is terribad.
    Everyone on the internet is a dishonest actor.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by TheJewishMerp View Post
    Fair.

    But I have an extremely hard time believing that Blizzard is going to make the game "bad." The community on the other hand, may be the only reason I'll ever leave this game. If the change from F2P has shown us anything it is this: F2P doesn't meant the death of a game (most games do well after going F2P and are more profitable than they were when they are subbed) but it is the death of the games community.
    "Bad" is completely subjective to the audience playing. What was praised amazing a few years ago, such as raids only being for the hardcore, is now viewed as "bad" now. Lets say that WOD is completely catering to the hardcore, hypothetically, so all casual players leave. At this point, the audience only likes hardcore raiding now. In the next expansion, would it be better for blizzard to make only hardcore raids again, or to make casual raids too?

    At that point, it would actually be detrimental to "fix" their mistake they made in WoD, because the audience they have left will actually leave. Because its been shown that player retention actually leads to more subs than new players or old players coming back, blizzard would be shooting themselves in the foot in what the community would consider "bad" at that point.

    You can replace hardcore raids with whatever you want.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by TheJewishMerp View Post
    And we can't know that this trend will continue. It's impossible to know if this trend will continue, especially if the 1 expansion a year comes true, which may very well boos overall sub numbers over a period of time.
    But we cannot assume that the long trend will not continue, because that has never happened. There was never a sustained boost in subs for the entirely of the 2nd half of the game. The only logical thing is to assume that it will continue, atleast on the basis that it will be the most probable outcome.
    Chronomancer Club

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •