Nuclear Catastrophe: How Much Risk are You Willing to Accept?

[Nadiru]

This video ignores the mechanisms and decision-making processes people use to prevent nuclear escalation. And as far as accidents go, it takes a lot to make a nuclear device go op in the proper manner. If an external explosive were to hit it, it'd probably just cause a localized "dirty" explosion rather than the full nuke going off. In fusion devices at least, the purpose of the internal explosive package is to create the kinds of pressure needed to get the fuseable material to fuse properly. Within a fission bomb it's more likely, but you'd still need the explosion to hit at juuuuust the right point with juuuuust enough force to dislodge the neutron pellet without blowing the tamper apart (while U238 is dense, a missile can cause serious damage to it.)

In most fission bomb designs, a missile striking the bomb would cause a hell of a radioactive cleanup, but it wouldn't necessarily cause a chain reaction. Then again, the video and I presume the book rely on the layman being, well, a layman. Ignoramuses eat this shit up, I guess?

[Kellhound]

There have been several aircraft explosions with nuclear weapons involved, some even resulting in the conventional explosives in the devices exploding. None have gone critical.

[truckboattruck]

take nukes from 3rd worlders
dont take them from the usa lol

you people know better

[Deleted]

Nuclear weapons arent that devastating really unless you carpet bomb the whole country with them. So an accident might render a small city inhabitable, a terrorist attack will most likely target a larger one with densely packed population. A disaster yes but more on the scale of natural ones, not an end of the world thing. The bigger problem is that they are "dirty" and pollute the area with radiation. Otherwise I think we should be more worried about meteor strikes, tsunamis, hurricanes and other larger scale natural disasters. Yellostone going supervolcano sounds a lot scarier.

[breadisfunny]

Nuclear weapons arent that devastating really unless you carpet bomb the whole country with them. So an accident might render a small city inhabitable, a terrorist attack will most likely target a larger one with densely packed population. A disaster yes but more on the scale of natural ones, not an end of the world thing. The bigger problem is that they are "dirty" and pollute the area with radiation. Otherwise I think we should be more worried about meteor strikes, tsunamis, hurricanes and other larger scale natural disasters. Yellostone going supervolcano sounds a lot scarier.

someone doesn't know what a nuclear winter is.

[Deleted]

someone doesn't know what a nuclear winter is.

Single nuke wont cause it.. even 10 wont.. if that happens, it will no longer be an accident but an all out nuclear war.

[Nadiru]

someone doesn't know what a nuclear winter is.

Someone doesn't know that we tested nuclear bombs extensively in the 1950s. Was 33 nukes insufficient? How about a 1.5 Megaton blast? What about all the dust that's supposed to kick off from these? No appreciable dust gathered in the atmosphere from these tests, insofar as I can find.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Castle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castle_Bravo
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Hardtack_I
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Hardtack_II

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba

[Deleted]

"Major nulcear catastrophe that would have consumed much of the state Arkansas in firestorms."

yeah no, this is what the 9megaton W-53 warheads, carried on the missile he mentions (biggest deployed warhead in US history) would do. http://www.nuclearsecrecy.com/nukema...310&ff=50&zm=7

aside from the whole fire doesnt set off nukes things ofcourse.

edit: ups forgot to set it to ground detonation instead of airburst. Less destruction but some nasty fallout. (the model doesnt accoutn for geography or actual weather so its prolly much more then reality)
http://www.nuclearsecrecy.com/nukema...t=1&ff=50&zm=7

[Dendrek]

How many Nuclear Bomb experts do we have on these forums? Should I be worried?

[Anium]

This doesn't scare me.
What is pretty terrifying for me is how advanced military groups such as Black ops are atleast 8 years ahead of everyone else in technology. Already being able to produce mind altering chemicals which they are using in present day, to spray on populations from drones to make them more docile and compliant.

If that shit right there doesn't scare the living crap out of you, i don't know what will.

[Becquerel]

Everyone sounding off about how explosions of the bombs or fires, read the book. It really is a great read, one of the best non-fiction books I've read (I'd only rate Emperor of All Maladies higher). Current nuclear weapons are safe, but older weapons were not 'one point' safe, and there was a significant potential risk on some of these weapons. Even just wiki'ing it finds data. "Out of 25 one-point safety tests conducted in 1957 and 1958, seven had zero or slight nuclear yield (success), three had high yields of 300 t to 500 t (severe failure), and the rest had unacceptable yields between those extremes."
Old design detonators also had X units that could be charged and detonate the bombs from a variety of sources. There were even a few accidents that involved a fully armed and engaged weapon.

Really though, don't dismiss it based on the video. The book is great, some of it's on google docs as well if you wish to check it out.

EDIT* On the talk of nuclear winter, SIOP, our nuclear war plan for 1960, included 3200+ warheads.

[Wilian]

someone doesn't know what a nuclear winter is.

Thousands of nukes have been set off during last 100 years. Well above 150 during single year in 60s.

Nuclear winter requires a bit more than just some random explosions.

[Masark]

someone doesn't know what a nuclear winter is.

Someone isn't aware of just how much boom that would require.

India and Pakistan simply don't have enough bombs to do anything other than relatively localized destruction.

[Deleted]

Always fascinates me to think about how nowadays we talk about destroying the world without any awe. I wonder how our ancestors would react if we told them the power we wield today.

[poser765]

This doesn't scare me.
What is pretty terrifying for me is how advanced military groups such as Black ops are atleast 8 years ahead of everyone else in technology. Already being able to produce mind altering chemicals which they are using in present day, to spray on populations from drones to make them more docile and compliant.

If that shit right there doesn't scare the living crap out of you, i don't know what will.

Dude, e careful...you are bending and flexing that line between normalcy, and people who believe in chemtrails.

We point and laugh at people who believe in chemtrails.

Don't believe in chemtrails. It makes you look silly.

[Wildtree]

Did I just watch an infomercial for a book?