I don't understand Follower mission success chances

[MonsieuRoberts]

They make no sense. What kind of formula is being used? Are traits prioritized far more than level? I want as many salvage boxes as I can get, so I send every follower on missions, even if the success chance goes down to the 60s and 50s. I see shit like this several times a day:



So even if the success chance is low, I'll keep sending them, because clearly the system doesn't give a flying fartsicle about math. Or maybe it does? I don't know, it doesn't make sense to me.

Why do I sometimes fail missions with 85%, even 90, I've seen a 90 fail, and then succeed with missions in the 60s and 50s? Is it really just flipping a coin 100 times and counting?

[Deathgoose]

An 85% Success chance is still a 15% Failure chance.

You rolled poor RNG on one, that's all.

[schwarzkopf]

TWhy do I sometimes fail missions with 85%, even 90, I've seen a 90 fail, and then succeed with missions in the 60s and 50s? Is it really just flipping a coin 100 times and counting?

85% chance of success = 15% chance of failure ...
60% chance of failure = 40% chance of success.

[testsubjectzz]

I think the trait counters play a big part. Ive hard high level characters that couldn't counter anything have a success rate of 86% fail but then someone that counters it with a lower success % succeeds. Or it's a coin flip.

[Ganador]

Because 85%-90% does not equal 100%

A small chance to fail is still a chance to fail.

[Vishy]

Hey....How did you make yours look like that :O

[MonsieuRoberts]

So it's purely luck then, it's not that traits play a bigger role or anything.

[Imperviable]

It's kind of funny that you criticize Blizzard's system while simultaneously posting this. For some reason, statistics is one of the most misunderstood areas of math on the internet.

[Raugnaut]

I've had a 99% chance to succeed fail before. The chances of me failing that is the same chances of me getting a mount off Elegon or something.

[Jakexe]

Hey....How did you make yours look like that :O

Addon called 'Master Plan'.

[MonsieuRoberts]

Hey....How did you make yours look like that :O

Garrison Mission Manager, Master Plan and Breeze.

[ocis]

Traits do play a big role in your overall success rate, especially when you have to set up a group to counter targets with multiple affixes. You just have to deal with the fact that a success isn't guaranteed unless it's at 100% and you aren't going to automatically fail unless the chance is at 0%.

[MonsieuRoberts]

It's kind of funny that you criticize Blizzard's system while simultaneously posting this. For some reason, statistics is one of the most misunderstood areas of math on the internet.

I wasn't trying to criticize, just confused and wondering if follower traits or level played a bigger role in deciding if they'd succeed or fail beyond the success rate presented.

[Tyranastus]

Hey....How did you make yours look like that :O

It's an Add-on called "Master Plan"

Great add-on that reshuffles mission order based on success % and shows you the best followers for each mission.

[Firebert]

Addon called 'Master Plan'.

You can also use Garrison Mission Manager for more information about things like follower traits and things. I run both and haven't had any conflicts yet.

[clevin]

Counters are critical. If you send a follower on a mission and that follower counters the trait of the NPC *AND* your follower is the same level or higher, you have 100% chance to succeed. If your follower is a low-level than the mission you have some chance to fail... the farther below the mission level the less chance of success.

Conversely, if you can't counter something but can send a high level on a low level mission you'll be more likely to succeed than if you sent a same level follower.

The other thing is that some followers have traits that aren't apibility counters but that give them a better than average chance against certain mobs. I think it's Mialli that has a trait that increases her odds against orcs. Some have better odds against elementals, etc.

[Pancunchi]

I wasn't trying to criticize, just confused and wondering if follower traits or level played a bigger role in deciding if they'd succeed or fail beyond the success rate presented.

Followers who counter abilities increase success rate. All missions have a chance to fail but those without counters have a higher chance to fail

[xcess]

Ive had a 100% mission fail so yeah the game doesn't care bout the numbers

[Feali]

Ive had a 100% mission fail so yeah the game doesn't care bout the numbers

Sure you did.

[Ahhdurr]

I typically prioritize missions that I need (weapon/armor upgrades, stones, epic gear). Then I prioritize bonus exp to lvl. Then if I have left over followers I send them on worthless missions (gold/resources). This ensures you get what you need, lvl followers the fastest, and lose the least important missions.

Edit: I've had 80-90% missions fail and 50% missions succeed. It all about maxing your gains and limiting your losses. If a mission is important wait until you can get 100% chance, if it's not important throw someone on it and eh.