I don't understand Follower mission success chances

[Deleted]

People often misunderstand the chance of 99%. Its 99% chance to be victorious but still 1% of defeat.

Meaning that in 100 fights you'll lose about 1 fight.

So in 100 missions you will fail 15 missions (if every mission has 85% success rate)


Simple math and i can't understand why some strange sci-fi or rocket science calculation has to be included for this. If its not 100% success, be prepared to fail!

[Akropolis]

The big question is whether or not the group quests have individual rolls for each foe. The animation would lead me to believe they do, however I don't think it matches each foe against an individual group member as a poster before me thinks. i.e if it's a 3v3 mission with 90% success, I believe it's a 90% chance for each roll, even if you're carrying a low follower that would otherwise have a 0% chance of killing anything.

[Insomlol]

Ive had a 100% mission fail so yeah the game doesn't care bout the numbers

Unless you have proof (which of course you wont), i call bullshit on this.

[Dasani]

Sure you did.

It is possible to have a 100% chance of success mission to fail because there is a bug/exploit with missions where you can make it succeed and give you the reward regardless of success chance, but if done incorrectly it can cause you to fail, even with 100% chance of success. People who are unaware of this bug can very easily trigger it by accident.

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The big question is whether or not the group quests have individual rolls for each foe. The animation would lead me to believe they do, however I don't think it matches each foe against an individual group member as a poster before me thinks. i.e if it's a 3v3 mission with 90% success, I believe it's a 90% chance for each roll, even if you're carrying a low follower that would otherwise have a 0% chance of killing anything.

Pretty sure it's just one roll and the animation is there just for the lulz.

I've done quite a few missions that needed 3 followers and I just throw people in that shit at random because I want to level them quickly and usually dont care about the rewards (if they arent more follower XP). So a lot of my 3 peeps missions have 50% chance or less to succeed.

So i fail about 50% of the time, as you might expect. If it was a 50% chance per character, the failure rate would be significantly higher

[Very Tired]

Does anyone wonder why a level 100 can even fail at a 90 mission in the first place? They should really be overpowered for it.

[Jingoo]

http://i.imgur.com/JXNMj7D.jpg

Tell me about it.

[velde046]

Ive had a 100% mission fail so yeah the game doesn't care bout the numbers

*cough* BS *cough*

Anyway RNG is RNG I had the huge luck where I chose a mission with a 6% succes chance and it worked. Got me 12k XP for 2 followers. Then again had a few times where a 85% mission did fail.
Chance is chance, RNG is RNG...

[c313]

Finishes 8 missions. Completes all but 1 with an 85% chance of success

Claims bug in system. Really?

Sorry to break it to you bro but RNG is RNG. There is no problem with "math". You know those Warglaives of Azzinoth? They have a way higher chance of failing(not dropping) yet people still get them. If the world was controlled by you, anything over 50% would be a success

[Tzalix]

Why are people so surprised when they see a 85% mission fail? How would that equal some sort of failure of mechanics? Are people unaware of what the percent sign means?

85% means you have a 85% chance to succeed.
Not 100%.
85%.
That means there's a 15% chance of failure.
15 out of 100 85% missions will fail.

How is this hard to understand?

*cough* BS *cough*

I've actually heard many, many people say they've failed a 100% mission by now. Seems to be some sort of bug.

[Wengel]

Sure you did.

I've had a 100% mission fail too, it's not impossible.. it's a matter of rounding the number that is displayed. You see 100%, while it's actually 99,96% etc chance in the background.

[Deleted]

Its about trait counter I have won a lot of below 50% chance with right trait and lost a lot over 70% if traits dont match.

[Deleted]

I've had a 100% mission fail too, it's not impossible.. it's a matter of rounding the number that is displayed. You see 100%, while it's actually 99,96% etc chance in the background.

But the in-game system does not ALLOW .X%.. It's a strict 1-100 system for simplicity.. The ONLY issue I have found is people using Garrison Mission Manager experience miscalculations showing 100% on some 80%+ missions because of a flaw in the AddOn but that's it =S

[Wengel]

But the in-game system does not ALLOW .X%.. It's a strict 1-100 system for simplicity.. The ONLY issue I have found is people using Garrison Mission Manager experience miscalculations showing 100% on some 80%+ missions because of a flaw in the AddOn but that's it =S

This was before i even knew about the addons (it was very early on while levelling).
It's known that WoW uses display roundings in calculating i.e. uncritable (in the past) and for many other things in the character details overview, so why wouldn't it also have the 'hidden' calculations i the back for this?

Do we have any sort of confirmation that Blizzard does not calculate the % chance using decimals in the background or is it just an assumption you have? I'm fully aware that the decimals aren't shown in the overview ingame, but that doesn't mean they don't exist...

[schwarzkopf]

But the in-game system does not ALLOW .X%..

Each follower is rolled separately, each follower is exact integer %, but between three - it could end up being a fraction.

[ButterBeast]

alliance players lol

[Afrospinach]

I wasn't trying to criticize, just confused and wondering if follower traits or level played a bigger role in deciding if they'd succeed or fail beyond the success rate presented.

well I read somewhere that if you do not meet a counter you have a 27.5% chance to fail the bonus objective, even if you have follower traits that boost the chance of success.

[Sidewalker]

I don't see a mechanical issue with the system. I think you just have to play to your toon's traits and not just plug and chug. Not that you're doing that at all, but that's what I've found.

[powerstuck]

So it's purely luck then, it's not that traits play a bigger role or anything.

Traits do play a role. Lets say you do a rare 615 mission and the mob has 3 traits. Using 3 lvl100 followers each countering one trait and all 3 having ilvl615 or better will make your success rate 100%, thus impossible to fail.

[Delaios]

That "expedited mission complete" option, is it also available without an add-on? The cutscenes are starting to get annoying and don't add anything.

[Alvito]

85% chance of success = 15% chance of failure ...
60% chance of failure = 40% chance of success.

Whoa whoa whoa don't bring numbers, math and logic in here all willy nilly.

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Why are people so surprised when they see a 85% mission fail? How would that equal some sort of failure of mechanics? Are people unaware of what the percent sign means?

85% means you have a 85% chance to succeed.
Not 100%.
85%.
That means there's a 15% chance of failure.
15 out of 100 85% missions will fail.

How is this hard to understand?



I've actually heard many, many people say they've failed a 100% mission by now. Seems to be some sort of bug.

I have failed a 100 and a 98. Both were rather upsetting.