Mission completion %, how does it work?

[HappyLuckBox]

i keep getting conflicting reports about this:
say i have a mythic highmaul mission with an 86% completion rate.
does this mean i actually have an 86% to complete it, OR does it mean each follower (out of 3) has an 86% chance per swing?
if it is the latter that would reduce the overall rate to (.86)^3 = 64%

[Jellospally]

Its 86% chance per mob in the mission so its the 2nd way.

If you fail 1 of 3 you fail the mission.

[Count Zero]

No one but Blizz knows the answer for a fact. Folks will answer your question (you'll get answers on both sides and people will argue) but there just is no proof until Blizz says something.

[chazus]

No one but Blizz knows the answer for a fact. Folks will answer your question (you'll get answers on both sides and people will argue) but there just is no proof until Blizz says something.

No, we do know. Its been confirmed in a number of places.

Its 86% chance per mob. So 3 mobs = 86%, 86%, 86%. Three separate rolls. Anything under 90% is taking a gamble on 3 mobs. Thats not to say you wont win. You might win every damn time, but its still a gamble. Thats why people say.. if it isnt 100%, fix it.

1 Mob	2 Mobs	3 Mobs
100	100	100
95	90	86
90	81	73
85	72	61
80	64	51
75	56	42

[Count Zero]

No, we do know. Its been confirmed in a number of places.

Its 86% chance per mob. So 3 mobs = 86%, 86%, 86%. Three separate rolls.

Confirmed ? By Blizz ?

[chazus]

Confirmed ? By Blizz ?

I don't know, but it has certainly been reliably confirmed.

[Polarthief]

I don't know, but it has certainly been reliably confirmed.

If it's been reliably confirmed, surely you have a source.

Not that I truly care (because I can 100% counter pretty much any mission now), but just for knowledge-sake, I'm curious.

[chazus]

If it's been reliably confirmed, surely you have a source..

I've looked it up because I was curious. Theres tons of threads and math, people who do API work for the mods, etc.

I don't have anything to link because it's not worth it for me to spend 20 minutes to prove it, when you can spend 20 minutes to find the same thing.

[MrExcelion]

I think there's a disconnect between players and the game if is indeed 3 separate rolls of the mission success chance, or maybe it's just me, but I learned something new! Most of those folks that get frustrated at failing 90+% missions probably think its a single roll. Doesn't help that the garrison addons hide the roll animation

[chazus]

I agree that it is frustrating that this expansion in particular theres a LOT of hidden information, or very, very, very un-intuitive information. Things that you literally cannot know unless you look it up outside the game.

[huth]

I've looked it up because I was curious. Theres tons of threads and math, people who do API work for the mods, etc.

I don't have anything to link because it's not worth it for me to spend 20 minutes to prove it, when you can spend 20 minutes to find the same thing.

If you can't be bothered to actually back up your claims, why should we believe them? You made the claim, burden of proof is on you.

[chazus]

If you can't be bothered to actually back up your claims, why should we believe them? You made the claim, burden of proof is on you.

You don't have to believe them. I don't care if you do or not, really, it doesn't change the fact. It doesn't change my gameplay if you believe otherwise. I already proved it for myself, which is good enough for me. *shrug*

[Deleted]

You don't have to believe them. I don't care if you do or not, really, it doesn't change the fact. It doesn't change my gameplay if you believe otherwise. I already proved it for myself, which is good enough for me. *shrug*

Not that I don't believe you, but if it's been "confirmed" in numerous places and if there's "tons" of threads including maths and what not, surely it can't take you long at all to find just ONE, can it? This argument you just gave pretty much boils down to "I can claim whatever I want and don't need to back up that claim whatsoever." That's an absolute ridiculous logic to have any sort of meaningful discussion. I'll follow suit:

It's clearly overall 86% chance and not per mob. There's been numerous posts all across in the internet that prove it, math has been done and large sample sizes been investigated. I cba finding these threads anymore though, so you'll have to take my word for it. Or just look for yourself. There's definitly no way you're posting on this forum because you can't find any reliable source to begin with.

See? He said she said. Best discussions ever! It has about the same value as not posting.

[huth]

You don't have to believe them. I don't care if you do or not, really, it doesn't change the fact. It doesn't change my gameplay if you believe otherwise. I already proved it for myself, which is good enough for me. *shrug*

Fine. Just realise that this diminishes your general credibility, which, given your status, probably isn't the best of ideas.

[IxilaFA]

You don't have to believe them. I don't care if you do or not, really, it doesn't change the fact. It doesn't change my gameplay if you believe otherwise. I already proved it for myself, which is good enough for me. *shrug*

Theres only two ways you could know for sure. 1) you ran countless trackers of thousands of missions at varying degrees of success and counters and opposing minions or 2) you work for Blizzard. Anybody else who tries to claim otherwise is probably just guessing as well. You seem really hostile on this and try to understand that people aren't trying to attack you personally. You are definitely allowed to believe that the missions work one way or another. But when trying to argue logically and convince others of your viewpoint you need to provide sources or at least your own simulations of what you've experienced, otherwise its all just conjecture.

Me personally I haven't seen good arguments for one way or another and until someone comes out with a detailed simulation of all the factors involved I dont think we will know. For now your best hope is to balance your followers out in such a way that any mission you absolutely need to complete can be done 100% without question.

[aggixx]

I've looked it up because I was curious. Theres tons of threads and math, people who do API work for the mods, etc.

I don't have anything to link because it's not worth it for me to spend 20 minutes to prove it, when you can spend 20 minutes to find the same thing.

The problem with this statement is that I've read probably hundreds of posts, done a fair a bit of searching (probably more than 20 minutes), and not once have I ever seen something that even began to resemble meaningful evidence.

Sure there's several threads out there for calculating mission success chance, but not once have I seen such a thread provide evidence for how that success chance is actually applied. That's something that requires a large sample of evidence and nothing else.

- - - Updated - - -

Fine. Just realise that this diminishes your general credibility, which, given your status, probably isn't the best of ideas.

Maybe to you it does, I personally can't be assed to look up every damn thing every time somebody asks for a source so I totally understand where he's coming from.

[huth]

Maybe to you it does, I personally can't be assed to look up every damn thing every time somebody asks for a source so I totally understand where he's coming from.

It's more the general tone and mindset behind that statement that does it, not so much that he won't provide a source for everything. There's a difference between just relaying what you heard and stating something with absolute certainty and then acting all snooty when somebody questions it.

[Simulacrum]

I've done thousands of missions by now. If it's per follower then I have the best luck in the universe.

[Caelnir]

I believe it just works like /roll mechanic

[Deleted]

I'm pretty sure it's just what it says. 86% success chance means you have an 86% chance of success. Calculating it any differently wouldn't make sense and I succeed low percentage missions so often (>2000 missions done) that I find it hard to believe the actual win percentage is even lower.