Saudis enter the fray: Yemen (GGT)

[StayTuned]

Let them do whatever they want down there if they are so bored with their lives.

[Teaon]

Well, we're providing air support for Iranian forces at the moment around Tikrit in Iraq.

hence why i said "logistical", ISIS is world enemy, that doesn't make Iran US buddies, they still hate eachothers and would take the chance to weaken eachother

[Deleted]

Well, we're providing air support for Iranian forces at the moment around Tikrit in Iraq.

Today friends, tomorrow enemies.

[Korgoth]

It all comes down to this, from google

"The group now known as Sunnis chose Abu Bakr, the prophet's adviser, to become the first successor, or caliph, to lead the Muslim state. Shiites favored Ali, Muhammad's cousin and son-in-law. Ali and his successors are called imams, who not only lead the Shiites but are considered to be descendants of Muhammad."

Didn't Dr Seuss do a book with a similar theme?

Wait so is there a distant relative the Shiites believe is the true successor of Muhammad, and a distant relative the Sunni's do, because you'd think an argument over who should have led 1000+ years ago wouldn't cause such a divide without a modern day power struggle.

[Tierbook]

We keep getting into conflicts in the ME because that is our main energy supplier. When we shift to using something other than fossil fuels, I have a feeling we will let them destroy each other, until either the Shiites or Sunnis come out on top, or they actually come to an understanding like the Protestants and Catholics have.

Actually Canada is our main energy provider after US resources themselves anyway. The ME isn't that useful to us

[Tierbook]

OPEC would disagree.

But, in general, yes, we are slowly shifting away from ME oil.

Doesn't matter what OPEC says they don't provide the most oil to the US, that's a fact

[Independent voter]

Ok, so the question then is, how much oil do they provide the world? And can the world take OPEC stopping production?

Oil is what they call fungible. Oil producers sell their oil to a broker and that broker sells to everyone, that's why there is one price for oil no matter which country it comes from.

That said, the US gets most of it's oil from Canada, Venezuela, Mexico and surprisingly, the United States.

Just because they are closer or we have the proper refineries for their oil, etc.

Currently the US is flooding the world with oil, it's very cheap atm.

[Tierbook]

I understand, but the question remains. If ME countries stopped producing oil, today, what are the consequences?

To the US? Not all that bad. The increase in price for oil would help the US in fact as we are a large producer, even if you use most of it ourselves

[Tierbook]

To the world economy.

Why should I car about that so long as the US benefits?

[Independent voter]

I understand, but the question remains. If ME countries stopped producing oil, today, what are the consequences?

Many people in the US would get crazy rich.

[Independent voter]

If we lived in a vacuum, yes. Unfortunately, (or fortunately), we live in a connected world. We buy and sell a lot to and from other nations.

US is the number one producer of oil currently, if OPEC shut down, some companies in the US would make insanely huge profits. We might even see the worlds first trillionaires.

[ringpriest]

Looks like the "ISIS with a crown" regime in Saudi Arabia (and friends) is managing in just a couple days to accomplish what was previously unimaginable - the people of Yemen are uniting to reject foreign meddling (and killing) in their nation. So far, its looks like the Saudi's Gulf Cooperation Council is pulling about 1 sortie per day (per aircraft) which is... pretty unimpressive logistically, but may be enough to give them air superiority over what's left of the Yemeni Air Force. The US and UK are giving big "thumbs up" to the aggresive military response. Russia, China, and Iran are calling for an immediate end to military operations and a diplomatic solution.

There are rumors of an impending Saudi expeditionary force landing at Aden, and a stupidly huge number of Saudi soldiers on the Yemeni border. The Saudi Army has a total strength of 150,000. If that's actually all been moved to the border with Yemen (highly doubtful, even though the Saudi's themselves have apparently made the claim ), then look for ISIS to come rolling in from the north - the Saudis would basically be hanging out a sign reading "ISIS invaders welcome" by focusing their entire military on Yemen.

Things look like they're going to move very fast, at least for a while, and the mainstream news is probably going to be both outdated and inaccurate. If anyone has links to reputable sources on the ground, please share. (I'm still trying to find any such reporting myself - as such, everything in this post is just my opinion.) Keep in mind that news of any sort coming from the Saudi regime or its puppets is completely and utterly unreliable (which won't stop Western "mainstream" news media from reporting it slavishly) Saudi PR makes the worst of Ukraine, Donbass and Russian (or US) PR look like the BBC, when it comes to accuracy and verifiability.

Anyone following this is going to hear the word 'Houthi' until their ears bleed. It's... not particularly accurate. (But the Saudis love it, because it conveys the idea that they're fighting one group of "rebel" tribesmen.) At this point a better definition/translation of 'Houthi' would be, "Pretty much every Zaidi in Yemen (about a third of the population), plus a majority of the rest of the Yemeni people" (it's amazing what airstrikes and the threat of an invasion from a terror-supporting, ultra-conservative religious dictatorship will do for national unity).

The accusations of Iranian support are (mostly) BS. I've yet to see any evidence of significant support; heck, the only real claims of anything beyond minor assistance come from the Saudis. Does the government of Iran dislike the government of Saudi Arabia? Absolutely. Will they (Iran) provide some help to anyone in Yemen opposed to Saudi Arabia? Absolutely. Will the Iranians cheer if the Saudi's are dumb enough to stick their dick Army in the meatgrinder that an occupation of Yemen would be? Absolutely. Are the 'Houthis' an Iranian puppet force? Nope, they're far more independent of Iran than Syria. Syria is pretty important to Iranian interests - Yemen is just a chance to poke the Saudi dictatorship in the eye with a stick, and the Yemenis are sick and tired of outside interference.

There are numerous other factions, including a southern Yemen seccession movement, supporters of the current/ousted (Hadi) and former (Saleh) presidents, along with ISIS, Al-Qaeda. For now, the Saleh supporters seem to have joined up with the Houthi, and who knows who else will be pushed into unity by the Saudi threat. Hadi is being touted as the "legitimate" government of Yemen - at this point he's a little more legitimate than Yanukovich is in Ukraine. (When you flee the country because everyone in it wants to kill you, you're really not "representing" them in any way, shape, or form. But it gives the Saudi dictatorship and its allies a fig-leaf of legal cover.)

In case its not clear from my thoughts above, I'm completely and utterly opposed to this violent idiocy. I'm ashamed that my government is supporting a murderous, fanatical regime like the Saudi dictatorship, and its even worse that we're helping them go to war with their neighbors. If Obama gets the US directly involved in this, I think he ought to be impeached. (Of course, I think he ought to be impeached anyway, but not on what the Republicans would probably impeach him for.) The situation in Yemen has already gone from bad to worse - I don't see any way this ends well.

One other thing to think about - there's no way in hell this was pulled together in the last 72 hours. A lot of thought and planning went into this, including from the US. But it wasn't mentioned anywhere until Hadi was finally ousted, and then it all started moving.

[Independent voter]

- the people of Yemen are uniting to reject foreign meddling (and killing) in their nation.

Wow, you wrote a lot. I'm not sure how you can be so divorced from reality. Suicide bombers killed over 100 Shiites today, some think they are al Qaeda. The country is split along Sunni Shiite lines with the Saudis backing the Sunnis and the Iranians backing the Shiites.

Is it just that you don't want to believe this so you made something up?

[ringpriest]

Wow, you wrote a lot. I'm not sure how you can be so divorced from reality. Suicide bombers killed over 100 Shiites today, some think they are al Qaeda. The country is split along Sunni Shiite lines with the Saudis backing the Sunnis and the Iranians backing the Shiites.

Is it just that you don't want to believe this so you made something up?

Ad hominem, ad hominem, tangent, flat out wrong, and another ad hominem with an appeal to incredulity.
/golfclap

This is not a Sunni-Shi'ite fight (although it might be possible to turn it into one, to the detriment of everyone but Iran). From Politico, yesterday: What We Get Wrong About Yemen - Foreign intervention in a local fight would be the worst course anyone could take.

With reports Wednesday that besieged President Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi might have fled his palace, Yemen appears closer to collapsing into a total failed state. Meanwhile the headlines have started to lump the conflict in Yemen—a country that President Obama only last September portrayed as an anti-terrorism success story—together with the sectarian fighting in Iraq and Syria; “Shia rebels” are said to be battling “Sunni tribesmen,” allegedly taking support from Iran as they fight Yemen’s Saudi Arabia-backed Sunni president. The implication is that the conflict-ridden Arabian country is just another front in an emerging, region-wide Sunni-Shia war, and that someone had better do something fast!

The truth is far more complex, and the solution right now should be more along the lines of: Just stay out of it. While the chief combatants in the civil war are certainly playing the sectarian card to some degree, there is reason to think that Yemen will not necessarily become part of some regional sectarian conflict. Regardless of their foreign ties, both the Shiite Houthis and their Sunni opponents are deeply rooted in Yemen, and they are motivated primarily by local issues.

The Saudi-led, US-supported airstrikes are only going to succeed in uniting the public of Yemen. "The most ardent anti-Houthi activists in Sanaa #Yemen are all literally saying, "F*** Saudi Arabia" right now."

[Kruncholyo]

This is my fav take on the situation:
https://twitter.com/iowahawkblog/sta...88919235035137

David Burge
‏@iowahawkblog
US peace partners Egypt & Saudi Arabia ready to invade US peace partner Yemen to fight US peace partner Iran

[ringpriest]

Look like a ground invasion is going to happen, possible at the same time at troops land in Aden - Warships shell Houthis outside Yemeni city of Aden -witnesses.

Also,
Humanitarian workers: Air strike hits area of Yemeni refugee camp, killing 21