WoW Subscriber estimates

[Granyala]

The free game time token is probably going to make subscribers numbers less accurate and overly inflated. The actual count might not be down by that much, but how comparable it will be to the previous figures is unknown. Down is a good bet though.

They are not free. EVERY token has been paid for by REAL money. In fact, if all of us would switch to token instead of sub, Blizzard would make MORE money compared to now.
Also, they have no impact on "active accounts" at all.
If token redeemed -> Account active.

[Gyrotex]

Activity is down a tremendous amount

Players care about this - not Blizzard. They care about $ at the end of the day.

Many people just let their subs continue on even when they stop playing.

They did for a long time, and it's super annoying, as this gives Blizzard no motivation to improve in any way (e.g. communications, speed of content delivery, etc).

HOWEVER,

Now that we have WoW Token, a lot of paying subscribers will stop paying and revert to their stashed gold - at least for a bit.

So sub numbers that we are going to get will be skewed by that trend of replacing one with another.

$ however will remain the same (or even MORE in Blizzard's favor), because even if you bought your game time from me with gold, I PAID for your subscription, plus gave them $5 extra.

It's all pretty smart really.

[Deleted]

Activity is down a tremendous amount, I don't know about subs though. Many people just let their subs continue on even when they stop playing.

My server really does feel dead again.

*sigh* Personal experiances, Im seeing far more activity still than I ever saw during MoP :P

However, I feel that the quality of WoD so far has lacked compared to previous xpacs, however 6.2 is looking to be one killer of a patch from what I've tested (didnt want to spoil myself to much).

I fully belive that WoD is the filler for something much bigger, at least I wish to hope so... Blizzard has the capability to be great once more, and I truly hope that the next xpac will be.... well, world of warcraft, these filler xpacs lack that personal feel abit :P

[Daerio]

Also, they have no impact on "active accounts" at all.
If token redeemed -> Account active.

You don't see the direct contradiction here?

I assume Blizzard will include wow token subscriptions in their numbers, (why wouldn't they, it makes the numbers higher?) and as a result there will be an increase in numbers, at least for a while. It means fewer people are paying more money, and that's all it means in the short term. That well will eventually run dry though.

[Talen]

They are not free. EVERY token has been paid for by REAL money. In fact, if all of us would switch to token instead of sub, Blizzard would make MORE money compared to now.
Also, they have no impact on "active accounts" at all.
If token redeemed -> Account active.

However, not every person behind the account will be "paying". People who might have quit if they had to pay for the content may very well stay if all they have to do is hand over gold.

Before, every active account was a paying account - the perosn holding the account paid. Now, it isn't. The ienvitable result is that subscriber numbers are going to remain high, even if activity within the game drops.

EJL

[Thetruth1400]

8.5-9 feels about right I'm thinking. Really tough one to gauge tho.

I don't see that playing a big factor because it came out after Q1 ended. Q1 ended March 31. Token didn't come out for a week and a half into April.

For me, I'd guess that we're going to see about 8.5 million to 9 million if Blizzard is lucky, but I expect to see those numbers down to around 5.5 - 6 million by expansion end. If they continue to deliver such lackluster content and so little of it, they're never going to hold numbers like they used to be able to do. If they want to earn those numbers, they have to earn them by releasing the same quality and quantity they used to, not just fair quality like they are now.

[Mafic]

I hope it's low. I hope people aren't satisfied with the shit they've been giving us. F2P games give more content with the same quality. WoW needs to step it up to justify the sub fee or go F2P.

Agreed.

It is almost like they are testing the waters with the token but going f2p seems to be on the table for them at some point in the future.

[tj119]

7.5-8 million. QTR 2 they will likely stabilize because of the token then Q3 and 4 the decline kicks back in. I'd bet they drop to 5.5-6 million before WoD is over.

[Silversorrow]

I hope it's low. I hope people aren't satisfied with the shit they've been giving us. F2P games give more content with the same quality. WoW needs to step it up to justify the sub fee or go F2P.

It is free to play now....at least for me it is. (Love those tokens lol)

[Crushima]

Huge loss for sure.

[Rhine101]

I'd say 8 mil.

Number surely dropped. Could be bad but even I would be shocked to see them at around 5 million.

[theostrichsays]

I imagine the 8.5-9M number to be the most likely. It could be under 8.5 million and closer to 7 million but I'm highly doubtful of that.

[cFortyfive]

The hype around wod was never justified so I wouldn't be surprised about the numbers going down a decent amount.

[Ticj]

The hype around wod was never justified so I wouldn't be surprised about the numbers going down a decent amount.

God damn, I was so hyped for WoD, and I know a lot of people were too. So yeah, I'm sure there are HUGE losses this quarter.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

I'm gonna say 8.8-9.3 million.

Odd range, but my gut yells at me if I go lower or higher than that.

[Alvito]

My feeling is it wont have moved, but Blizzard will not differentiate between wow token subs and paid subs.

Why would they they are paid more for a token sub then a normal one. Sure for people like me that spent just over 200k to buy up a years worth WoW time we gave them nothing. Somebody else however paid them 20 dollars a month for my sub time.

[Val the Moofia Boss]

Over 9 million at least.

[Mafic]

I am going to go with 8 million. They off set a lot of losses with the Asian market.

[Xilurm]

11 million. Because why the fuck not?

I was seriously surprised when they held that 10 million last time.

[Wrathonia]

Oh man, the blind faith some of you guys have in Blizzard and thinking that sub numbers will be steady or go up. Thanks for the laughs.