Q1 2015 report discussion thread

[Arbs]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2891...pt?part=single

Robert Kotick :



Audio of the call :

http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/8syuj2kp

Listen from around the 6 minutes 36 seconds mark.

Rough Napkin math :

25/40 = 0.625
0.625 * $850 million = $531.25 million <---- my rough estimate of how much Hearthstone made last year.

After seeing what happened with Destiny. I cringe hearing that, but I don't expect anything less from Kotick.

[rda]

Rough Napkin math :

25/40 = 0.625
0.625 * $850 million = $531.25 million <---- my rough estimate of how much Hearthstone made last year.

Eek, you are assuming a player of Destiny brings as much money as a player of HS. This isn't the case.

[Arbs]

Jaylock is and was posting because he wanted responses, preferably tens of pages and more. I am and was posting because I want discussion.

Ya but Jaylock also had a funny sense of humor too, I miss him

[Dystemper]

2.5 to 3 million loss. The several realms I played on before i unsubbed were AS DEAD OR WORSE THEN THE END OF mop.

[Mafic]

1. Hearthstone will eclipse WoW as the money maker to fund other projects in the near future.

2. Blizz will continue to change WoW to stream line it to be more like Hearthstone in terms of simplicity.

Hearthstone is what they tried to do with WoW for so many years but failed to do so as retention rate of WoW mirrors other MMO's in the industry. Hearthstone has a much higher retention rate because it is simple and the tablet/app market is huge and growing.

PC growth is pretty much in its twilight at this point IMO.

[Arbs]

Indeed.

Hell, of course it'll go down. That's pretty par for the course for post-release sub numbers at this point, isn't it?

The only annoying part will be seeing all the, "I KNEW IT! SUB NUMBERS DOWN BECAUSE OF <thing I dislike>!!!!" posts for the next 12 months or whatever.

Sadly yes, but we all know what happens when they go up. *Crickets

[Deleted]

Nah, no sub loss to be reported.
Fanboi posts in this thread clearly prove people are even more stupid than that so...

[Sweetpeaz]

ITT: The Blizzard defense brigade shifts from 'the game's just old guys' to 'it's all good, because Hearthstone'.

Seems like it doesn't it?

I couldn't care less about Hearthstone, or any of their other games. I feel a bit burned by my D3 purchase and won't be giving Blizzard much money in the future if they don't do something to remedy this game.

I know for many people Blizzard the company is many things, but for me, it's only WoW now.

As for this quarter, I would say down 2.4 million. With them acknowledging that it will be lower next quarter as well.

[Kelimbror]

Sadly yes, but we all know what happens when they go up. *Crickets

This isn't true arbs, silly bear. A lot of people celebrate their sub numbers. When WOD first came out and I heard the numbers I was freaking stoked...but I heartily enjoyed MoP and looked forward to all of those empty 'promises' we got at Blizzcon. I don't think anyone is honestly going 'Ha ha! they lost subs, that will teach them' as much as everyone who isn't happy with the game likes reassurance that they aren't crazy and hopes that it will send a message to Blizzard to 'fix' the game.

I don't think there's anything wrong with that specific line of thinking, but I do think people don't know how to adequately represent that feeling on a public forum.

[Osmeric]

ITT: The Blizzard defense brigade shifts from 'the game's just old guys' to 'it's all good, because Hearthstone'.

What's interesting about that is that it means nothing for those defending the state of WoW. If WoW is performing below expectations they will make changes, even if Hearthstone is doing well.

[plantation]

1. Hearthstone will eclipse WoW as the money maker to fund other projects in the near future.

Hearthstone-like games are the future of Blizzard. Low development costs, easy entry for the consumer, and high profit yields. Especially if they keep cranking out expansions and build on the PvE aspect of Hearthstone.

[ihyln]

I think one thing is readily apparent and that is no competitor will kill off wow, blizzard will do that on its own due to their negligence and incompetence. which is a worse way to go

[melodramocracy]

Hearthstone-like games are the future of Blizzard. Low development costs, easy entry for the consumer, and high profit yields. Especially if they keep cranking out expansions and build on the PvE aspect of Hearthstone.

It's a shame that a company like Blizzard looks at Popcap as something to model themselves after.

[rda]

Why will HotS ultimately fail? If you can explain this without comparing it to other MOBAs.

I answered why I think that HotS will fail already, and, unfortunately, it's entirely related to other MOBAs - I don't see a killer feature. I don't see why people would play HotS rather than LoL or Dota2, both LoL and Dota2 are just better and they are already established. I might be wrong about it, obviously, but so far it looks to me that HotS will just be something small which some of the former Blizzard fans play for some time and then put down, that's all. The first tournament on HotS will be a big test.

[Traveler Voltin]

-4 million subs and a lawsuit

[BenBos]

Why will HotS ultimately fail? If you can explain this without comparing it to other MOBAs.
You can talk what will Overwatch offer comparing to other FPS games today and there is enough info for that.

Well as the OP got owned by some real figures for Hearthstone, I am glad his meager 150 million dollars came 300% short

As a matter of fact I predicted the 2014 ... 1.7 billion dollars revenue for Blizzard back in May just after the launch of Hearthstone and now I will do the same for 2015.

For the first time ... both free to play games Hearthstone and Heroes of the Storm combined will arrive at "nearly" the SAME revenue as WoW ... not quite, but very close indeed.

I expect the HS/Heroes combo to bring in around 600-650 million dollars for 2015, while WoW is probably going around 650-700 million dollars.

All Blizzard figures of course (not included here are the Netease earnings for WoW).

There you may bookmark it. Just like you did last year.

[rda]

Well as the OP got owned by some real figures for Hearthstone, I am glad his meager 150 million dollars came 300% short

Cute. Noone saw these *real figures*, but whatever.

- - - Updated - - -

For the first time ... both free to play games Hearthstone and Heroes of the Storm combined will arrive at "nearly" the SAME revenue as WoW ... not quite, but very close indeed.

I expect the HS/Heroes combo to bring in around 600-650 million dollars for 2015 ...

Yeah, this won't happen this year. Not unless they drop the ball on WoW completely. Want to bet?

[Sweetpeaz]

Why will HotS ultimately fail? If you can explain this without comparing it to other MOBAs.
You can talk what will Overwatch offer comparing to other FPS games today and there is enough info for that.

It won't fail compared to industry results, but it will fail compared to the standards that Blizzard titles do.

Blizzard gets a lot of money because they are Blizzard. With their most recent quality of games from D3 and WoW expansions, their name doesn't mean what it did before. Just my opinion though.

[Nosdrone]

ITT: Everyone on MMO Champion is a shareholder for Activision Blizzard, financial analyst, and can predict the future. Anyone who enjoys Blizzard games are wrong for having fun and should be ashamed of themselves.

[BenBos]

ITT: Everyone on MMO Champion is a shareholder for Activision Blizzard, financial analyst, and can predict the future. Anyone who enjoys Blizzard games are wrong for having fun and should be ashamed of themselves.

Well I had ATVI stock for 5 years. I sold as I think in the very near future the Activision part will not be very lucrative. Even Blizzard will not break any records this year (round 1.4 billion).

2016 could be better again. Too early to tell.