What the world economy will look like in 2050, by country

[Nadiru]

It won't look like that; forecasting economic growth out past 5 years is essentially folly. That said, extrapolating China's 8% growth to last another 40 years is overly optimistic. Chinese growth is likely to slow drastically over the next 40 years because it's run out of profitable infrastructure to build domestically, to the point where China is now trying to export infrastructure labor abroad.

[Xires]

This is another reason why conservatives cannot govern. We need MORE public spending and investment, not some hokey pokey checkbook "common sense" equivalency to the largest and most productive country in the world.

conservatives? Like the progressives are any better. Obama has spent more money that any other admin and he isn't conservative.

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The world will go on of two ways, the world economy will find an equalibrium where everybody learns to work together, both together and seperately, borders start to vanish, and things like a better standard of living is met world wide, OR Certain select interest will gain traction, exploit the world into more wars.

boarders will never vanish. Europe is starting to see the massive mistake that is "multiculturalism".

[Cyberowl]

My prediction:

China and many parts of the western world will be totally screwed, because massive population booms are followed by rapidly declining child births. Who is gonna pay for the rents? You can't maintain blooming economies based on that.

I'll try to save as much money as I can until my pension, it's going to be bad.

[Daelak]

conservatives? Like the progressives are any better. Obama has spent more money that any other admin and he isn't conservative.

Conservatives want us to have a balanced budget and no outlays for the coming decades. That is a surefire way to become a mediocre country.

[crazygamer420]

conservatives? Like the progressives are any better. Obama has spent more money that any other admin and he isn't conservative.

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boarders will never vanish. Europe is starting to see the massive mistake that is "multiculturalism".

Spoken like a true champ. Can't wait for an independent like good ole Bernie to become POTUS.

[TheTaurenOrc]

Yeh, but no. Robot labor is going to be an alternative long before 2050. All of a sudden you can manufacture anywhere in the world for the same cost. 0 after return on investment.

[Deleted]

That's nice except China will have serious civil unrest in the near future and how that will end up playing.. no one knows. With their current level of pollution they'll also have massive economic and societal issues looming in the horizon.

Things in the "countryside" are so bad people are literally ready to blow shit up. If the economy there even coughs a few times.. shit is going to hit the fan. Then Fan will hit Fan. Fan will then fan out. Ok I'll stop with the puns.

[Ravenblade]

Small error in the graphics: Germany will be called Pensionermany in 2050. It's Germany's family planning policies finally paying off.

[Puremallace]

Leave it to Bloomberg to cheer on China and utterly ignore it is a communist stronghold. No fucking chance China GDP ever gets that high. They are already starting to move into mechanizing their workforce and lay off thousands.

[Nadiru]

This, but also this:

Eight Out Of China’s Top Nine Government Officials Are Scientists
http://singularityhub.com/2011/05/17...re-scientists/

The only thing which would tilt this in China's favor is the fact that scientists are much more likely to follow rigorous updating techniques, like Bayesian updating. But scientists hardly have a lock on this; indeed, politicians are actually quite good at updating their rhetoric and policies.

[Rukh]

Leave it to Bloomberg to cheer on China and utterly ignore it is a communist stronghold. No fucking chance China GDP ever gets that high. They are already starting to move into mechanizing their workforce and lay off thousands.

You can't seem to see past your ideological fanatacism.

[Puremallace]

You can't seem to see past your ideological fanatacism.

No I can see Chinese GDP falling through the floor for the past 4 quarters. I see a country based on oppression pretending to build a middle class with no worker rights, no labor laws, no real wages, and no real environmental laws. It is insane to think China can maintain this illusion.

TPP pretty much do to China what NAFTA did to the US and I think Obama knows it.

[Nadiru]

That is true, but sometimes what they update to is not actually "correct" or is poll driven. You should do what is actually factually correct, then what is popular.

Which is why China is surpassing the US in green energy at this point.

China's surpassing the US in green energy largely because of Three Gorges Dam, which the US could match the output of if there weren't environmental concerns. So yes, China can do what it deems to be factually correct (hint: scientists who have to act as leaders still have the constraints that politicians acting as leaders have) but that doesn't make it right.

[chaotus]

This ignores quite a few problems with China right now. Lack of human rights, illusion of a middle class, sustainability of the environment, population control, domestic demand for labor. China can't sustain what it does right now to create the growth. The growth that was created has already caused long standing effects that will take generations to fix properly. You have towns collapsing into the ground from over mining. Entire cities vacant because of families creating ideological gaps between modernism and long standing cultural bias. The court systems are geared for efficiency and speed which creates quick judgements that have no bearing on the people involved. Death penalties given out for theft. Socially there is a lack of stable relationships, it's nowhere near the Armageddon levels of Japan but you have a mass generation of males growing up disenfranchised both fiscally and socially. China has to collapse, it cannot sustain its current growth or even level off while it switches from a production culture to a consumption culture. At it's size it needs to become a consumption culture to continue down this path like the US. Buying mineral rights in Africa is a good step, it's doing this in South America also. But that step from production to consumption is not going to be pretty with the way they have built their economy.

[THE Bigzoman]

Anyone that gives credibility to projections this far in the future are kidding themselves.

[TheTaurenOrc]

This ignores quite a few problems with China right now. Lack of human rights, illusion of a middle class, sustainability of the environment, population control, domestic demand for labor. China can't sustain what it does right now to create the growth. The growth that was created has already caused long standing effects that will take generations to fix properly. You have towns collapsing into the ground from over mining. Entire cities vacant because of families creating ideological gaps between modernism and long standing cultural bias. The court systems are geared for efficiency and speed which creates quick judgements that have no bearing on the people involved. Death penalties given out for theft. Socially there is a lack of stable relationships, it's nowhere near the Armageddon levels of Japan but you have a mass generation of males growing up disenfranchised both fiscally and socially. China has to collapse, it cannot sustain its current growth or even level off while it switches from a production culture to a consumption culture. At it's size it needs to become a consumption culture to continue down this path like the US. Buying mineral rights in Africa is a good step, it's doing this in South America also. But that step from production to consumption is not going to be pretty with the way they have built their economy.

^^ Exactly. I would also add to that a lack of any initiative in the common people for even the most mundane things. Their culture is so beaten down to respect authority.