Using Google Trends to predict WoW subs

[Kokolums]

Here's an interesting experiment in determining WoW subs. Let's search Google Trends for "World of Warcraft" and match it up with known sub counts.





There actually seems to be a bit of a correlation here.

1. I'm not sure what happened in August 2014 but there was a large spike of interest.
2. Both show a dip in mid-late 2014.
3. Both show a large spike giving us our 2015 spike.
4. Both show the dropoff right back down to old levels.

But Google Trends shows us what has happened since then.

1. The last major change in interest was when the 10th anniversary event ended. Interest in WoW dropped by a considerable margin once they removed the 10th event.
2. Interest in WoW has been mostly flat since the loss of 3 million subs.
3. Patch 6.2 has NOT resulted in a spike of interest in the game. There's been a slight rise but its barely noticeable.

I'd hazard a guess that subs are mostly flat. We're still around 6 million.

[Zka]

Nice experiment, do we have older data for trends to compare with sub numbers?

[Kokolums]

Nice experiment, do we have older data for trends to compare with sub numbers?

There seems to be less of a correlation before the decline in wow subs began during cata.

- - - Updated - - -

BTW, the LAST time Grinding Gear Games boasted about peak concurrency for Path of Exile was in September 2014. They said they had 154k users on at once at peak times. I would assume that, had that number gone higher, they'd keep boasting about it. September 2014 is also a peak for path of Exile in Google Trends. If September 2014 was a 100, its currently at 55. It might be fair to guess they have around 80k peak concurrency at the moment.

[akris15]

Looking at weekly player activity on wow census is showing a level to small gain also. I assume with 6.2 and wow token allowing some players to "play for *free" that the actual sub count will be even to small gain for q2 much to the dissatisfaction of the doomsayers on this forum. I mean it was expected anyways that 6.2 HAD to come out before 6/1 to have the new raid minimize the assumed retention in Q3 and allow the hype from Blizzcon and new expansion to carry in Q4.

[Kokolums]

Here's an interesting experiment: hearthstone vs WoW vs Path of Exile vs League of Legends



Currently the trend compare has it as:

PoE 6
WoW 13
Hearthstone 42
League of Legends 68

If a score of 13 = 6 million active accounts, then

Path of Exile has about 2.8 million active accounts.
Hearthstone has 19 million active accounts.
League of Legends has 31 million active accounts.

Disclaimer: I don't know how those figures match up with reported numbers.

[Sinnerlol]

1. I'm not sure what happened in August 2014 but there was a large spike of interest. = Warlords of Draenor cinematics and release date

[Ratyrel]

I know little about statistics, but what about the search term itself? WoW can also very well be searched for as "WoW"

[Ryme]

Or you can use this, which has followed the sub gains and losses pretty well since as long as I can remember.

[snuzzle]

I'd hazard a guess that subs are mostly flat. We're still around 6 million.

Which is incredibly disappointing, because it gives them no motivation to change. They stated they're perfectly fine with 6 million subs, and expected a loss. Not because of their shitty content and mishandling of the game, but because of its age.

[Deleted]

Ah, statistics. I don't think we can infer a lot from it, not until Blizz reveals some proper time-series data we could actually work with.

I was interested in two things here: the interest each expansion generated, and the overall visibility of Blizz games.

Mists of Pandaria was the least hyped/anticipated expansion of them all:

All the more impressive then how steady sub numbers were during MoP. (Purple BC, Green Wotlk, Red Cata, Yellow MoP, Blue WoD)
But also shows how massive the Cataclysm hype was. I am surprised to see it higher than LichKing, but it could simply be a function of number of people with access to the internet, as well as the much larger subscription base pre-cata compared to pre-LK.

But compared to wow overall, none of the expansions reversed the overall trend*:

*BC removed here as Google allows for max 5 search terms


Then I wondered,given all the claims about Blizz focussing their other games, how that correlates with google searches:

Apart from the Diablo launch, wow reigns unsurprisingly supreme, even at its low interest today.

[DeadlyConqueror]

You people got nothing to do the whole day, if you waste time on useless things like predicting wow subs, lol

[Deleted]

You people got nothing to do the whole day, if you waste time on useless things like predicting wow subs, lol

Stop wasting your time bashing things other people find interesting. And read up on the difference between descriptive and inferential statistics.

I forgot to add the top 5 MMO trends (based on current player base numbers). Pretty obvious to see that FF and Wow both have a slight up in July thanks to newly released xpac/patch.

2004-today


And a zoomed in version, 2011-today


I think we know more in a few months time, before Blizzcon. I.e. will FF rise more, and Wow decline? I'm curious how it'll play out. An announcement of a new expansion at Blizzcon would obviously push google trends up again, but not necessarily be related to sub gains.

[anakin57]

Here's an interesting experiment: hearthstone vs WoW vs Path of Exile vs League of Legends



Currently the trend compare has it as:

PoE 6
WoW 13
Hearthstone 42
League of Legends 68

If a score of 13 = 6 million active accounts, then

Path of Exile has about 2.8 million active accounts.
Hearthstone has 19 million active accounts.
League of Legends has 31 million active accounts.

Disclaimer: I don't know how those figures match up with reported numbers.

I believe LoL has upwards of 68 million active users last I read, but the "active" part is really anyone's guess.