Serious droprate question

[Tezha]

10 years 5 chars only half a TF.

2 tickets lots of begging and a lot of salty tears

Welcome to the club of never getting what we want :|

[apples]

get in game and roll 1 10000

look at what number came up

the chance that the number that just came up, actually did come up, is .01%, less than your mount drop chance

but it actually came up

thats how its possible

[swaggers]

You know those people who say they got it 1st try? Congratulations, you're the universe balancing that out.

[Deleted]

Thanks to all of you for your explanations and encouraging replies,

made me wanna keep on trying even after those hundreds (thousands?) of hours,

Cheers MMO-C community !

[FuxieDK]

Hi there, this is a serious topic, not a complain of some sort,

I play for nearly 11 years, got 300+ mounts, I know how the droprate works, RNG is RNG, random is random, how to grind hard to get rare things etc...

BUT,

I just did my 802 kill on Yogg Saron to get Mimiron's head, 802 attempts, with 15 char / week at the moment, years of farming every week.

According to the calculations on this website : http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/13/d...e-probability/

With 802 attempts for 1% droprate : "There is a 99.96842 percent chance of the item dropping in the given number of runs."

That means that, there's ONLY 0,04% chance that I didnt see even 1 mount drop out of the 802 attempts,

Is this true ? How is that possible ?

Thanks math people for your answers

You calculation is correct, you are just unlucky.. Not extremely unlucky though..

I fished 3600 times during WotLK for the turtle mount, and by now have turned 6000 registered fishing attempts.. That damn turtle still eludes me..

6000 attempts at 1% each and still unsuccessful.... I don't even care for the math anymore...

[Jewsco]

You calculation is correct, you are just unlucky.. Not extremely unlucky though..

I fished 3600 times during WotLK for the turtle mount, and by now have turned 6000 registered fishing attempts.. That damn turtle still eludes me..

6000 attempts at 1% each and still unsuccessful.... I don't even care for the math anymore...

have you tried fishing in twilight highlands for it?
I fished all of wotlk was over 10,000 attempts never got it.
did twilight highlands in cata got it in 10 minutes.

[judgementofantonidas]

Hi there, this is a serious topic, not a complain of some sort,

I play for nearly 11 years, got 300+ mounts, I know how the droprate works, RNG is RNG, random is random, how to grind hard to get rare things etc...

BUT,

I just did my 802 kill on Yogg Saron to get Mimiron's head, 802 attempts, with 15 char / week at the moment, years of farming every week.

According to the calculations on this website : http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/13/d...e-probability/

With 802 attempts for 1% droprate : "There is a 99.96842 percent chance of the item dropping in the given number of runs."

That means that, there's ONLY 0,04% chance that I didnt see even 1 mount drop out of the 802 attempts,

Is this true ? How is that possible ?

Thanks math people for your answers

Blizzard maths work differently than in the real world. By Blizzard calculations if you have a 99.96842 chance of something happening that means you have a 250 percent chance of it not.

[Cerus]

That isn't how % chances work. In a large enough sample size you'll average 1%. Of 10,000 kills you could expect to have it drop 100 times. Could be in the middle, end, beginning or spread all over. More kills does NOT equal higher chance. 1% is always 1%.

[FuxieDK]

have you tried fishing in twilight highlands for it?
I fished all of wotlk was over 10,000 attempts never got it.
did twilight highlands in cata got it in 10 minutes.

I have... I have fished EVERYWHERE where elsanglin.com and other sites have stated it's possible to catch it..

And your story is just luck.. You might as well have said, you caught it in 10 attempts after eating a pot roast your mother cooked.. It would have equal influence on the drop..

[Deleted]

Yeah, you have been really unlucky indeed.

I was in your same bandwagon until I said "F***k this" and farmed gold to buy it from the BMAH.

And i know theres a special feeling of success when you see the drop but working on a goal and seeing progress is rewarding too.

I have seen a winning bid in the BMAH for less than 400k (although dont expect those prices nowadays) and I have seen several goldcaps bids. I won it on 700k so in the end its just a matter of how fast you can make gold.

Now I know that if you dont have 10+ garrisons working on full production its gonna take some time but the ammount of time you have invested in it clearly shows you are determined in getting the mount and you are not affraid of the effort needed.

Just a kind suggestion