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  1. #1

    Aftermath of the Scaling patch

    Disclaimer: All data taken from all MMR levels and only data sent to hotslogs is used.

    So, we've had a week to play around with the new scaling. Here's a brief look at the aftermath in hero league:

    Largest Movers

    Diablo has increased his win rate by 5.1% putting him at 56% global win rate and by far the highest warrior.
    Thrall has increased his win rate by 4.8% putting him at 54.9% global win rate.
    Anub'arak has increased his win rate by 3.8% putting him at 51.1% win rate.

    On the other side of the spectrum:

    Azmodan has decreased his win rate by 2.9% putting him at a 46.9% global win rate.*
    Li Li has decreased her win rate by 2.7% putting her at a 51.7% global win rate.
    Jaina has decreased her win rate by 2.6% putting her at a 48.4% global win rate

    Highest/Lowest win rate

    Tyrande continues to climb and is currently resting at 56.8% after gaining an additional 3.1%.
    Raynor now boasts 56.5% after gains of 2.2%
    Diablo is the surprise third best, as above he's currently at 56% after a huge gain of 5.1%

    All three are now over the threshold of acceptance (45%-55%), however Tyrande has been consistently pushing past this following her buffs a few patches ago. I would expect nerfs for her in the coming weeks.

    On the other side of the spectrum:

    Abathur continues dragging the bottom end of things, he's down 1% from previous to leave him with a lowly 41.8% win rate.
    Illidan hasn't moved at all which sadly still leaves him at 44.4% win rate.
    Zeratul has taken quite the beating recently, he drops another 1.6% leaving him at 48.4% win rate.

    I would expect some kind of Abathur changes soon. A reverse to the recent Uther changes, Blizzard will likely want to improve his lower level ability whilst leaving his higher level ability untouched.

    Talent changes for the movers

    Diablo
    • 1 - Many players now picking up Soul Feast on level 1. This talent has seen an almost 10% increase in popularity and dropping other level 1 talents by the wayside.
    • 4 - Demonic Strength has seen a -20% change in popularity but a 16% increase in win rate. Players seem to be wanting to stay with Fire Devil above all other talents, but Demonic Strength may be worth keeping an eye on, slows are becoming a big thing lately.
    • 7 - Battle momentum is the big thing here. It's seen a 35% increase in popularity, whilst not boasting much of a relative win rate increase. From the Shadows boasts the largest win rate increase this tier of 19%, though the sample size on this talent is still too small.
    • 10 - Both herocis seem to be doing well, 1% changes in popularity either way, both win rates steady at 56-57%.
    • 13 - Firestorm is the only talent to increase in popularity, all others are down. It's far and away the best win rate talent, but all others have made strong gains in their respective win rate here.
    • 16 - Rampage continues to be the most popular and boasts the highest win rate. However, Continuous Overpower has increased in win rate by 14% and is just barely behind Rampage now.
    • 20 - Bolt of the Storm is up by 30% in popularity and is now the strongest choice here statistically at 69% win rate. Lord of Terror is a close second.

    Thrall
    • 1 - Rabid Wolves has increased in popularity by 20% here, Block continues to be statistically the strongest choice here and is the only talent to increase in win rate.
    • 4 - Spirit Journey is up a whopping 44% in popularity and also boasts a 17% increase to win rate, Ride the Lightning is down 17% in popularity but is still statsitically the best choice.
    • 7 - Stone Wolves make an impressive 32% increased in popularity and back it up with a 9% increase to win rate. Follow Through is still the strongest choice, but is down 20% in popularity.
    • 10 - Earthquake has seen a massive 16% increase to win rate bringing it level with Sundering. Worth consideration.
    • 13 - Things are fairly steady at 13, no large movers in terms on win rate. There's been plenty more experimentation with Restless Wolves and win rates on this tier are almost all equal now.
    • 16 - Ride The Wind is up by 65% in popularity. Tempest Fury has fallen from the top spot to make room for Forked Lightning which is marginally ahead at this point.
    • 20 - Worldbreaker is up in both popularity and win rate, however strongest pick is Nexus Blades (those slows guys).

    Anub'arak
    • 1 - Persistent Carapace has seen a 17% increase in popularity while Regeneration Master is down 15%. Assault Scarab remains the most popular, despite Regeneration Master being statistically the better choice.
    • 4 - Many more players have started trying Mercenary Lord, up 25%, it sadly remains far and away the weakest choice here. Legion of Beetles remains the most popular and powerful talent choice.
    • 7 - Bed of Barbs continues the trend of snares increasing in popularity, up 8% in popularity. Leeching Scarabs remains the most popular choice despite Urticating Spines offering a statistically better alternative.
    • 10 - Locust Swarm is up 20% in popularity and remains the stronger choice in general offering a 6% lead over Cocoon.
    • 13 - Almost no change at 13, proportionally nothing has changed this tier. Burning Rage is still the top dog in popularity and win rate.
    • 16 - Beetle, Juiced rises 34% in popularity. However, Epicenter is up 16% and has taken the throne from Blood for Blood by becoming the strongest choice the tier.
    • 20 - Hive Master soars ahead in popularity, up 25% to match the level 10. It remains the strongest choice this tier. Hardened Shield has fallen by around 9% in terms of win rate.

    --------------------------------

    *Note, I believe there is currently a bug with Black Pool not working properly right now which may explain a lot of his fall.
    Last edited by Ryme; 2015-11-26 at 05:37 PM.
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  2. #2
    Bloodsail Admiral Sir Andy's Avatar
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    Who dropped the most?
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    Thx America for destroying Europe and world and all mess you cause bcs of your selfishness and only thinking abot yourself and of your interest, creating IS, killing in the name of democracy, etc etc...

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Andy View Post
    Who dropped the most?
    Oh, good point. It's Azmodan, Lili and Jaina. I'll update the OP in a sec.
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  4. #4
    Mechagnome Sezerek's Avatar
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    I guess Anubaraks push in win rate is because of his uber hardcounter against cho'gall. Funnily enough the new scaling makes Anub worse instead of better.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Ryme View Post
    Oh, good point. It's Azmodan, Lili and Jaina. I'll update the OP in a sec.
    Really? I've been having extremely good times with Jaina since the patch. Guess people overextend too much in this game.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Oh, and Azmodan has some bug where his Q stacks don't work properly with Black Pool. I guess some of the blame lies there.

  6. #6
    Titan Gallahadd's Avatar
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    Interesting post, thanks for the info! Just because she's my wife, do you know how the scaling has effected Johanna? (if at all)
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  7. #7
    My 2 cents on the OP:

    One posted has rightly pointed out the introduction of Cho'Gall - This is sure to shake things up. He duo are new, and their ower win rate, suggests that other heroes defo got a win rate boost at their expense.

    Diablo has likely been picked in a lot of games lately. Even when I play with friends, I've seen them pick him every now and then. One thing worth noting is that there might be many layers who own D3 and might have logged in before the free giveaway and therefore Diablo becomes very a accessible hero. That said, he is just a fun hero - and his tool kit is one that can get you some good kills, even if you are a new player. I mean who does not love overpowering poor chaps into your friends and then pushing them back further into their inevitable doom. The feels there are very strong.

    It might be worth looking at which talent is taken in tandem with battle momentum. I normally preferred the one in which fire eturns back, as many fire waves in a short amount of time = good damage.

    As for Thrall, I just want to say the Earthquake has its uses, the beefed up version at 20 is great - and will likely see more use in maps like Towers of dooms. It's also a useful talent if you want to help your team soak damage from terrors / large npcs in late game.

    I cant comment o Anub'Arak much as I have not played him. (I know, I know, Im missing out on this hero here, but eventually I'll get to try him out).

    Blizzard wont change Uther much - he is still very powerful. And I don't foresee any Abathur changes either as he rarely comes in the freerotation and the devs are ust ok with him having his niches - much like TLV.

    As for Jaina, I think it's just bad play that is responsible for the win rate drop - after the scaling, her Blizzard is very lethal. Been playing Jaina for free this week and noticed that the better Jainas (better than me , anyway) had their blizzards spot on and that was the difference between getting kills in a team fight. The moment I landed a decent Blizzard - I'd more likely that kill text flash on the screen in the next few moments.

  8. #8
    Hey all, thanks for the feedback!

    I have noted the bug with Black Pool, but I wasn't specific so thanks for that. It's also worth noting that many minion based AI bugs appeared with the Morales patch which affected his demon build faily substantially. Details can be found here/.

    Regarding Johanna: She's up 2.2% to a global win rate of 52.5%. Her talents are among the most cookie cutter in the game, excusing two outliers, none have shifted more than a few percent in popularity or win rate.

    The outliers:
    Righteous Smash at level 1 is down 18% in popularity but is up 7% in win rate. Knight Takes Pawn and Regeneration Master still jostle for the statistically best choice.
    Heaven's Fury at 20 is up 10% in popularity but is down 9% in win rate. Storm Shield has taken the top spot for this tier, finally toppling Indestructible offering a 3% increase over it.

    Regarding Battle Momentum for Diablo, the talent seemingly has no affect on the current most popular builds. It appears individually good.
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  9. #9
    Immortal Nikkaszal's Avatar
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    Not surprising that Anub is up, with the proliferation of Cho'galls for several days and his rising popularity in HL. As soon as I see a Cho'gall in HL I immediately disregard whatever pick I had and take Anub'arak, because Cocoon fucks him so very, very hard. It turns literally every teamfight into a 3v5 instantly, for 8 seconds.
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  10. #10
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    Cheers for the write-up. Apart from Tyrande - mostly played and skilled as a hybrid - not a single support among the top 15 heroes. Li Li still best with 51.7% win ratio before Morales with 50.5 and Uther with 48.1. Strange days.

    Even stranger when keeping in mind that all win ratios are inflated by Cho'Gall being reasonably popular and terrifyingly bad.
    Last edited by mmocabce60bc47; 2015-11-26 at 03:36 PM.

  11. #11
    Morales might deserve a section really, she's increased dramatically but more over time than other heroes. She's up around 10% since October, but there's so many factors affecting her performance it's hard to really draw any solid conclusions .
    Also she's my favourite hero <3
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  12. #12
    Titan Gallahadd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryme View Post
    Regarding Johanna: She's up 2.2% to a global win rate of 52.5%. Her talents are among the most cookie cutter in the game, excusing two outliers, none have shifted more than a few percent in popularity or win rate.
    Ah so she's still in a great spot, but not likely to be nerfed... Just where I want her to be! I have to agree about the hilarity of the Cookie Cutter nature of her build, I basically still use the same build I did on her release day and it still serves me oh so well. Interesting to see Storm Shield take top spot... For the very few games I hit 20 I tend to go for Indestructable... Might have to give Storm Shield a try. Is there any REASON why it's suddenly on top?
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  13. #13
    I like the post however you I assume are including all leagues. I never care or pay attention to what people are picking or winning with in the lower leagues because they are there for a reason. Game play at the top is totally different and after checking diablo and anubs talent picks they didn't change at all near the top.. just near the bottom. I think that's worth noting

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Gallahadd View Post
    Ah so she's still in a great spot, but not likely to be nerfed... Just where I want her to be! I have to agree about the hilarity of the Cookie Cutter nature of her build, I basically still use the same build I did on her release day and it still serves me oh so well. Interesting to see Storm Shield take top spot... For the very few games I hit 20 I tend to go for Indestructable... Might have to give Storm Shield a try. Is there any REASON why it's suddenly on top?
    Because newbs don't know how to play? If you change it to diamond/masters league only it isn't chosen at all and indestructible still is the top choice. Just lower leagues picking it and messing with the stats when you view "overall" instead of picking individual leagues. I can still how it would be useful in some builds or team comps but overall it wouldn't be the best option.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by smiteme12 View Post
    I like the post however you I assume are including all leagues. I never care or pay attention to what people are picking or winning with in the lower leagues because they are there for a reason. Game play at the top is totally different and after checking diablo and anubs talent picks they didn't change at all near the top.. just near the bottom. I think that's worth noting
    This was a deep consideration but the downsides to it were too extreme:
    1) The population sizes are too small
    2) The populations aren't representative of the global player base
    3) People in this population aren't likely to be experimenting much

    If it were possible to filter to something like 'this league and up', it would perhaps be better served.

    That said, I agree this should be stated in the OP and I'll update in a second.
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  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Ryme View Post
    Morales might deserve a section really, she's increased dramatically but more over time than other heroes. She's up around 10% since October, but there's so many factors affecting her performance it's hard to really draw any solid conclusions .
    Also she's my favourite hero <3
    It's just a case of statistics - more samples, and the result levels out. Win/Loss is discrete data, but we can assume that the relative skill level of players - if quantified - follows a normal distribution pattern. (it is not given here).

    Can anyone make a chart of all the contributors at HoTSlogs and their mmrs? (y = Number of players/x = mmr intervals)
    Last edited by ttak82; 2015-11-27 at 05:17 AM.

  16. #16
    Honestly I haven't even noticed it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nikkaszal View Post
    Not surprising that Anub is up, with the proliferation of Cho'galls for several days and his rising popularity in HL. As soon as I see a Cho'gall in HL I immediately disregard whatever pick I had and take Anub'arak, because Cocoon fucks him so very, very hard. It turns literally every teamfight into a 3v5 instantly, for 8 seconds.
    Sounds like a job for... HAYMAKER!
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  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Mormolyce View Post
    Honestly I haven't even noticed it.



    Sounds like a job for... HAYMAKER!
    Idd I used this to good effect against cho. Couple that with Muradins stuns and you have another aggressive counter to Cho'Gall. You still need some support though from team mates. Gall is still a menace. Best thing is stutterstep/dance around Cho so that the Gall player at east has to work a little bit to nab you. At level 20 you get 2 charges which is quite fun.

  18. #18
    Immortal Nikkaszal's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ttak82 View Post
    Idd I used this to good effect against cho. Couple that with Muradins stuns and you have another aggressive counter to Cho'Gall. You still need some support though from team mates. Gall is still a menace. Best thing is stutterstep/dance around Cho so that the Gall player at east has to work a little bit to nab you. At level 20 you get 2 charges which is quite fun.
    That's the thing though, VS Cho'gall you can do all that or land a solid Haymaker over a wall etc

    OR

    You can pick Anub'arak, Cocoon both of them brainlessly after you dive in and are simultaneously CC'ing others with Q, and your team can push forward for EIGHT SECONDS as a 5v3 vs all of their squishies. If they stay to break the web, they die.

    Hell, I even do it if it means forgoing a support (if I'm last pick). Its that strong.
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  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Nikkaszal View Post
    That's the thing though, VS Cho'gall you can do all that or land a solid Haymaker over a wall etc

    OR

    You can pick Anub'arak, Cocoon both of them brainlessly after you dive in and are simultaneously CC'ing others with Q, and your team can push forward for EIGHT SECONDS as a 5v3 vs all of their squishies. If they stay to break the web, they die.

    Hell, I even do it if it means forgoing a support (if I'm last pick). Its that strong.
    Ive not played as AnubArak so will have to wait till free rotation or maybe ill give him a spin in Try mode

  20. #20
    Immortal Frozen Death Knight's Avatar
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    Anub'arak was always fairly powerful since the bug fix of his trait. People stopped flocking to him once Blizzard nerfed the beetles, but he was good regardless from my own experience, even if Leoric and Johanna overshadowed every tank during the Eternal Conflict event. As a veteran Anub player he is fairly good after the scaling patch still, but he's very rarely picked from personal experience unless I do it myself. He may see a lot more play if Cho'gall actually manages to improve in winrate.

    Diablo I think is the biggest winner of the scaling patch. The stat boost in the early game makes him benefit so much more from his health boost talents and trait, since some of them are percentage gains. The more base stats Diablo has, the better he is.
    Last edited by Frozen Death Knight; 2015-11-27 at 03:32 PM.

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