When will human-level AGI be created?

[Kontinuum]

I agree. Watson is probably smarter than the majority of people. One might even argue that perhaps a simple Bayesian, bag of words, etc. algorithm hooked up to the WWW is smarter than some people...

Basic calculator is at superhuman level in a very specific domain. We're talking about AGI.

[Velaniz]

AGI with the same capacity to learn from errors and grow in intelligence like we do, but with few of none of our most crippling limitations would probably not stay "human-level" for very long .

[Gheld]

It depends if and when it can be made profitable for the private sector.

[Vash The Stampede]

Good example of someone that has consumed far too much science fiction in their life.

Sure bud, real life will be just like Alien and Fallout.

“If you want your children to be intelligent, read them fairy tales. If you want them to be more intelligent, read them more fairy tales.” ― Albert Einstein

It takes a strong imagination to conjure up the technology we use and will use. Of course science fiction is all fun and games and we have to get a grip with reality vs fiction but there is a very good reason to have robots in the future with AI. Right now the computer industry is looking to advance AI as fast as possible. The sexbot is real and disturbing. Humans and all living creatures are just machines that arose organically.

Why you think Einstein said to read fairy tales? Humans need to exercise their imagination in order to understand and figure out the universe. Nothing I said was impossible. Eventually we will create machines to do manual labor and have sexy time with. Beyond that we will go from wires and silicon chips to cells with proteins and DNA, and we will be able to do just that. They did make an artificial ribosome that can process DNA so it's not like organics is going to stay a mystery forever.

[Rukh]

I think we're over thinking it. What we're making is a replication of our experience with other people. We don't actually SEE other people's consciousness. We take it for granted it exists, but what we're trying to make is a machine that mimics the results of a conscious mind. i.e. it takes inputs and compares them to contextual knowledge and responds.

The thing is, we really don't see THAT much of a response from other people. When you're walking on a sidewalk, what are the queues you take to say that other guy is a living and breathing human? Well, he looks like me, he's upright and seems to look out at his environment, and that's about it. He might say "Hi" to my approach as we pass by.

None of those things are that difficult to replicate.

Now of course, we're talking about much more than that, but we already have programs that people can't tell aren't real humans. At this point its just a scaling level. There's no remaining technological leap.

[Tijuana]

AGI = Artificial General Intelligence
I'd say it will be 2075-2100.

We already achieved this. It was called Windows 9/Skynet. Unfortunately, John Conner had to time travel back to 2014 to prevent it from happening, because the robots took over.

[Vash The Stampede]

I think we're over thinking it. What we're making is a replication of our experience with other people. We don't actually SEE other people's consciousness. We take it for granted it exists, but what we're trying to make is a machine that mimics the results of a conscious mind. i.e. it takes inputs and compares them to contextual knowledge and responds.

The thing is, we really don't see THAT much of a response from other people. When you're walking on a sidewalk, what are the queues you take to say that other guy is a living and breathing human? Well, he looks like me, he's upright and seems to look out at his environment, and that's about it. He might say "Hi" to my approach as we pass by.

None of those things are that difficult to replicate.

Now of course, we're talking about much more than that, but we already have programs that people can't tell aren't real humans. At this point its just a scaling level. There's no remaining technological leap.

True AI would be like you and me where we use the sum of our experience to make a choice. Like driving a car. Self driving cars for example mimic our intelligence by specialization. Computer senses car, computer responds with predetermined action. The car won't stop for a hitch hiker. The car wouldn't work off road or on grass. Anything that isn't expected to be found on a typical road it can't react to it. Humans can because we have the ability to learn. That's probably the biggest difference right there between real AI and mimic AI. Real AI can learn and apply that knowledge.

If we make a robot, it would only be able to buy groceries or walk the dog because some people is Silicon Valley that coded that algorithm based on what can be expected. Things that are unexpected it can't deal with.

[Deleted]

10 years ago prob or 20

[anntheman]

Basic calculator is at superhuman level in a very specific domain. We're talking about AGI.

Very much the point, given the context of the comment I referenced.

[Deleted]

The difference between dumb humans and smart humans is much smaller than the gap between apes and (dumb) humans.

hmmm... I don't know. I think I could use an ape how to use a mobile phone and just sit on it all day.