Can Dark Conduits target same player twice?

[Dracodraco]

The math is 1/14, not (1/14)^2. Probability of one conduit is always 100%, now you're asking for the probability of conduit happening on the same player which is 1/14.

I guess that actually makes sense when thinking about it, my bad entirely. It also means that as there's 2x conduits on the third spawn, the rate of success will be even higher then (which I didn't really factor in at all, as the second set would obviously have been 2/14 if an explosion hadn't occured). Thinking of them as sets of potentials having to happen screwed me up there, and in that case, yea, it really should happen pretty freaking often (and does explain why I felt that we had awful RNG with double-spawns during progress; As the tank I got to look at the grid while crossing my fingers the dps wouldn't overlap, and the amount of times the same guy got hit twice in a row was significantly higher than every 30+ pulls).

[Deleted]

It's not 1/14. The conduit being able to spawn and hit a player a second time presupposes that it's already hit that person once, which is a (1/14)^2 probability if you're just looking at one "spawn pair" of conduits.

You're correct that it's 1/14 for every successively spawning conduit if we just assume that the player has already been hit by one conduit, but the probability of one player being hit twice over the course of one 3-conduit spawn cycle is essentially:

P(conduit1) * P(conduit2 or conduit3) = P(conduit1) * (Pconduit2 + Pconduit3 - P(conduit2and3))

This amounts to

1/14 * (2/14 - (1/14)^2) = 0.01

The statistical probability of any given player first getting hit by the first conduit, and then proceeding to get hit by either the second or the third conduit in a spawn cycle, should thus be roughly 0.01.

Disclaimer: It's a while since I last took a statistics course and I can't rule out that I've made some humorous oversight somewhere.

[Overdispersion]

Think of it as a pair of dice. The probability of rolling of doubles is 1/6. Or 6*(1/36) if you wanna look at it that way. Same with conduits. Doesn't matter whom it hits first. Sure, the probability of hitting me is 1/14, which makes the probability of the second conduit hitting me aswell (1/14)^2 but there are 14 players and the multiplication rule of probability makes it 14*(1/14)^2 = 1/14.

[ThePants999]

Dispersion is entirely correct. What's more, with 3 conduits, as well as the 1/14 chance that the second will choose the same person as the first, there's also a 2/14 chance that the third will pick one of the same people as the first two. The chances of getting three different targets picked is less than 80%.

[Deleted]

If I'm not entirely incorrect here, I think essentially both "camps" are doing the math right here, but we're not dealing with the same issue.

I agree that Overdispersion is entirely correct that the probability of any given person in the raid getting hit in the way he specifies is what it says he is, but I'm also relatively certain that my math is correct in the case of one specific player.

Edit: To further the dice analogy, I'm pretty sure Overdispersion is answering the equivalent of "what is the probability of rolling doubles" whereas I'm answering the equivalent of "what's the probability of rolling snake eyes?"

Edit 2: This of course also means that my original post was incorrect in terms of assessing how often simply standing still as an entire raid would cause a wipe, but the number should be true for how often any given specific individual player ought to cause one.

[Sonrisa]

Getting hit is H, not getting hit is N

0 Hit = N*N*N
1 Hit = H*N*N*3
2 Hit = H*H*N*3
3 Hit = H*H*H

The 3's in 1 and 2 Hit come from the different combinations (3 choose 2 and 3 choose 1 which are both 3)

That's just for one conduit phase which is 3 casts, Conduit will happen 3-4 times depending on DPS, maybe 5? Here's a spreadsheet since I was kinda bored. You can edit the cells in yellow and see your % of success when not moving, which let me tell you, is not great. Even with best case assumptions like only 3 conduits or 14 ranged (which seems on the high side for me)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...xab6nks2IQcbDU

EDIT: made it so anyone can go ahead and just edit cells in yellow without needing to copy the sheet

[Dracodraco]

Not going to add anything to the math-y part, but 3 conduits is the maximum you should see nowadays. Even before Ilvl upgrades, you never saw the fourth conduit unless your dps was really, really bad (or you had to use bloodlust in P1/2 instead of P3. Which I guess comes back to bad dps, but hey).
You get one at start.
One after second engulfing (straight after).
One during the fourth set of infernals.
And then one *during* the clusterfuck that is the fifth wave that all guilds tried to beat (Engulfing+Infernals+Conduits all happening at the same time).

Fourth essentially ment either "Play perfectly or wipe", I can't even recall ever seeing a fifth.

[CausalXXLinkXx]

Assuming 2 tanks, 4 melee, and 0 Mistweavers, it's roughly a 0.005 probability - a probability so low that a simple "spread out and stand still" strat should only cause an explosion once every 200 pair-spawns of a Dark Conduit, or once every 33 P3 pulls assuming a guild currently progressing on the fight averages two Dark Conduit casts before wiping.

Statistics, of course, is a fickle mistress, and it's still advisable to perform the minimal, trivial amount of movement required to ensure that it never happens when this is entirely within your own control.

The guild I'm currently in has an unlisted youtube vod of it happening. They were laughing about it and such. I'll try to find it.