Iowa Caucuses tonight

[Xeones]

I know way to many votes for either of them.

You were expecting a better performance from O'Malley?

[Tragedia]

Hopefully turnout has been good enough for a Sander's win but otherwise he'll trail Clinton by a couple % points.

[Independent voter]

Yeah, if Bernie can't win New Hampshire it's over I'd say. The only thing that would save him is the FBI putting handcuffs on Hillary.

[Rukh]

Hopefully turnout has been good enough for a Sander's win but otherwise he'll trail Clinton by a couple % points.

According to 538, its mostly rural areas reporting so far. Sanders is expected to do better in Urban areas.

[Wells]

As do I. I'm pretty surprised actually at the results so far. Its still fairly early though...

IDK man, could kind of see this coming. I like Sanders and all but he's never polled very highly with minorities and his numbers coming into this weren't great either. He's done better than expected, but I don't see it being enough.

[AdrianCC100]

As do I. I'm pretty surprised actually at the results so far. Its still fairly early though...

It seems like people who get a lead in these polls tend to hold the lead.. Although watching this website https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state, Clinton is slowly dropping.. But not fast enough. =/ When do they normally declare a winner? At what percentage of the votes counted

[Tragedia]

According to 538, its mostly rural areas reporting so far. Sanders is expected to do better in Urban areas.

Yeah youth turnout is key for Bernie here. If he wins Iowa then media narrative will focus on his momentum.

[Ave07]

Sad to see her winning.

[Rukh]

It seems like people who get a lead in these polls tend to hold the lead.. Although watching this website https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state, Clinton is slowly dropping.. But not fast enough. =/ When do they normally declare a winner? At what percentage of the votes counted

Well, since it's proportional, there's never technically a winnder, as the race is individual for every precinct. So ~100%, I guess? :P

[Tragedia]

It seems like people who get a lead in these polls tend to hold the lead.. Although watching this website https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state, Clinton is slowly dropping.. But not fast enough. =/ When do they normally declare a winner? At what percentage of the votes counted

This can help.
http://www.politico.com/2016-electio...president/iowa

[Xeones]

Yeah youth turnout is key for Bernie here. If he wins Iowa then media narrative will focus on his momentum.

Well even CNN is doing attack pieces on him. If he wins Iowa expect the media to go into full on attack mode.

[Rukh]

Well even CNN is doing attack pieces on him. If he wins Iowa expect the media to go into full on attack mode.

Oh don't start playing victim. "The Media" isn't some monolithic illuminati.

[Slybak]

If he can't win Iowa that's a bad sign. Its a demographic that's already more favorable for him.

Losing by a few points to the second-most admired Democrat in the country isn't a bad thing, especially if its the same one who lost the Iowa Caucuses in 2008 and said "Yeah, that shit isn't happening again." He'll likely win in New Hampshire, but how he does in South Carolina will likely be the most realistic test of his campaign because the demographics there work against him; SC Democrats are largely urban and black voters, which isn't where Sanders draws his support. If -Clinton outright clobbers him there (in other words, he loses by less than 7-8 points), his chances of winning are effectively gone.

[Doctor Amadeus]

I love Benie and if he gets the nomination, I will donate to his campaign, and throw as much support as I can to him. However I am not going to be goaded into voting for him as someone I believe can win in the general election.

And so far the only people I see talking about voting for him are many people I wonder how dedicated they are do Sanders ideas or the Democratic party, however it is funny seeing a lot of conservatives and Republicans trying to get those voting for Bernie to do so.

[Wells]

Losing by a few points to the second-most admired Democrat in the country isn't a bad thing

It is when its in one of the most favorable demographic areas you're gonna get. I don't see him having any shot in SC. He needs some wins before then to carry him through.

[Tragedia]

I love Benie and if he gets the nomination, I will donate to his campaign, and throw as much support as I can to him. However I am not going to be goaded into voting for him as someone I believe can win in the general election.

And so far the only people I see talking about voting for him are many people I wonder how dedicated they are do Sanders ideas or the Democratic party, however it is funny seeing a lot of conservatives and Republicans trying to get those voting for Bernie to do so.

I don't see how someone like Trump can beat Bernie in the general. Bernie will have democrats behind him, and he can pull up independents since Trump is so hated.

[stomination]

Yeah youth turnout is key for Bernie here. If he wins Iowa then media narrative will focus on his momentum.

Most of the youth is voting for him atm according to cnn exit polls.

Right now Bernie is losing on woman and old people.

[Slybak]

According to 538, its mostly rural areas reporting so far. Sanders is expected to do better in Urban areas.

For absurdly expansive definitions of the word "urban." The largest city in Iowa has about 200k people.

[Shadoweye]

Im looking forward to a good showing from Rubio, hopefully Carson can get some decent numbers in tonight too.

[Rukh]

Cruz is up 3% over Trump, but 538 has said that the precincts he's strongest in are the most reported right now. i.e. the more religious, so that can change drastically.