Nevada Republican Caucus Feb 23

[Rukh]

The Nevada Caucus is starting soon. Polling is very hazy at best right now due to expected extremely low turnout. This means that the confidence intervals are very wide. So far, people think Trump might win, but again, nobody is sure yet.

Once again, things that are big upsets would be something like Kaisich to drop out (not too likely) and Rubio to get a strong finish to get the establishment to believe in him.

As usual FiveThirtyEight has a good summary of points of interest, and even they are going ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...cuses-preview/


Results can be seen at:
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/nv/Rep

[ramjb]

Make America great again, guys! To any Nevadan forum members out there, I'm hoping you vote Trump.

[Rukh]

Also btw, Kaisich isn't even in Nevada tonight.

- - - Updated - - -

ome of the reports indicate more than the usual level of confusion. Mashable’s Emily Cahn is at Palo Verde High School in Las Vegas, and reports voters have told her that ballots were distributed without checking IDs, and that one claimed to have voted twice for Trump.

Might be an interesting night...

[Shadoweye]

The Nevada Caucus is starting soon. Polling is very hazy at best right now due to expected extremely low turnout. This means that the confidence intervals are very wide. So far, people think Trump might win, but again, nobody is sure yet.

Once again, things that are big upsets would be something like Kaisich to drop out (not too likely) and Rubio to get a strong finish to get the establishment to believe in him.

As usual FiveThirtyEight has a good summary of points of interest, and even they are going ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...cuses-preview/


Results can be seen at:
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/nv/Rep

I wouldnt call it "extremely low turn out" as ~10% (40-70k of the ~500k) of the registered Republican voters is expected, which is about average for Nevada.


Edit: I am looking forward to a good showing for Rubio tonight. HOPEFULLY Carson will dropout tonight or this week. I know Kasich wont, because he wants to get a 2nd place in Ohio, but thats just going to damage the party, and help get Trump closer to securing the nomination.

[Rukh]

I wouldnt call it "extremely low turn out" as ~10% (40-70k of the ~500k) of the registered Republican voters is expected, which is about average for Nevada.

FiveThirtyEight was expecting a low turnout, I think because it's a Tuesday night. However, according to The Atlantic, some sites have actually ran out of ballots. So it could be a surprise turnout after all.

[Xeones]

ome of the reports indicate more than the usual level of confusion. Mashable’s Emily Cahn is at Palo Verde High School in Las Vegas, and reports voters have told her that ballots were distributed without checking IDs, and that one claimed to have voted twice for Trump.

Might be an interesting night...

Sounds like a video from the other day on the democratic side where some dude messed up and starts going "No body leave!" after most of the people have left.

[Shadoweye]

From what i have seen in the past... they are on par for a normal turnout. Now if they are comparing to democrat turn out, well ofcourse it would be "low turnout". But as for the states registered republicans, and numbers that usually caucus, they are set to be right on average, or slightly above the 7-12% of the registered republican voters.

But thats neither here nor there, lol... Should not be fussing about turnout, just needs to get some Rubio action over in Nevada.

[Venant]

It's going to be very disappointing for Ben Carson if he can't even carry Carson City.

[Rukh]

Schedule:

[Krille]

Watching that map. My god i know so little about Nevada, hardly recognize any town on that map. Eureka is a great name for a town tho.

[Rukh]

Watching that map. My god i know so little about Nevada, hardly recognize any town on that map. Eureka is a great name for a town tho.

There's a Eureka California too, used to go there all the time when I was young.

[Shadoweye]

It's going to be very disappointing for Ben Carson if he can't even carry Carson City.

lol... well, having the same name as a city may carry some weight

[Independent voter]

I think Trump will win pretty big in Nevada. The big news will be if someone drops out, maybe Carson.

[Deleted]

You bet he will.

[Rukh]

I think Trump will win pretty big in Nevada. The big news will be if someone drops out, maybe Carson.

Trump is a Vegas candidate. Not surprising he's predicted to do well. Marry on Friday divorce on Sunday and all that type of stuff.

Carson hasn't dropped out yet, no reason for him to now! :P

[Damajin]

It's going to be very disappointing for Ben Carson if he can't even carry Carson City.

The only thing he's carrying is a bookbag full of his last release, he's been done in this race for at least a month.

[Rukh]

This is something I didn't remember hearing about last election:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1561220.html

Essentially the national Republican party set up a shadow party in Nevada because the state party wouldn't stop backing Ron Paul.

" At the state convention the Paul contingent filled 22 of the state's 28 national convention delegate spots with Paul supporters.

That was alarming enough for the RNC and for Mitt Romney's presidential campaign, which started officially working together in late April, after the party decided that Romney was the presumptive nominee. Team Nevada opened its offices on May 12. Then, on May 15, Paul backers in the Clark County GOP, the state's largest county, passed a resolution calling on RNC chairman Reince Priebus to resign for formalizing the RNC relationship with the Romney campaign.

The next day, reports surfaced that Team Nevada would be cutting the state party out of the loop entirely."

- - - Updated - - -

Here's the current nomination process after the national takeover:


Under the new system, ballots will be "sealed in envelopes and turned over to about 150 site managers, who will tally the results, phone them in to the county parties and send photos of the results through their smartphones."



- - - Updated - - -

"Trying to to catch all the fraud that's going on here would like trying to plug all the holes in the Titanic," Hughes (Nevada strategist for Marco Rubio) said in a telephone interview as he left his caucus site. "You fix one and another one bursts."

Nevada GOP: "There have been no official reports of voting irregularities or violations. #nvgopcaucus"

So this is going well. : )

[Tierbook]

Trump seems to have received 41% of the Hispanic vote, also 10k more people turned up this year over 2012

[Rukh]

Michele Fiore is on Cruz's state leadership team and running for Congress, I guess.

[Tierbook]

Can't Stump the Trump. It's already been called with less than .1% of the votes in.