Nevada Republican Caucus Feb 23

[McCulloch]

I'm not sure all of Cruz's support would go to Rubio. Cruz voters and Trump voters are pretty similar in my eyes.

I agree, but it's the establishments best chance. It's not a guaranteed victory if Cruz drops out, but Rubio's odds do increase greatly if he does.

[Tierbook]

I'm not sure all of Cruz's support would go to Rubio. Cruz voters and Trump voters are pretty similar in my eyes.

Not only that but Carson's 6-8% would likely go Trump, apparently he and Cruz got in a fight.

[Matchles]

I agree, but it's the establishments best chance. It's not a guaranteed victory if Cruz drops out, but Rubio's odds do increase greatly if he does.

I think the best chance Rubio has is for Kasich to drop out ASAP and for Cruz and Carson to stick around as long as possible and further split the potential Trump vote.

[ringpriest]

I'm surprised, as an outsider, to see such a low turnout.

A lot of people in Nevada work evenings.

[Krille]

I think the best chance Rubio has is for Kasich to drop out ASAP and for Cruz and Carson to stick around as long as possible and further split the potential Trump vote.

It's.. All... I mean in the end you're just trying to fool yourself that the voters actually don't want Trump when it quite clearly shows different. Arguing that this and that politician should drop out in favor of another so that one can beat Trump is pointless really. If there was a better candidate, surely that person would get the votes, regardless of dropoffs.

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A lot of people in Nevada work evenings.

Makes sense.

[Rukh]

I have to admit though, its amazing how spectacularly impotent the GOP establishment has been!

[Matchles]

It's.. All... I mean in the end you're just trying to fool yourself that the voters actually don't want Trump when it quite clearly shows different. Arguing that this and that politician should drop out in favor of another so that one can beat Trump is pointless really. If there was a better candidate, surely that person would get the votes, regardless of dropoffs.

I'm not fooling myself. I have no dog in this race, as I'm voting for the Dem.. I'm just trying to look at what would objectively give Rubio the best shot. I'd actually be pretty surprised if Trump doesn't get the nomination at this point.

[Krille]

I'm not fooling myself. I have no dog in this race, as I'm voting for the Dem.. I'm just trying to look at what would objectively give Rubio the best shot. I'd actually be pretty surprised if Trump doesn't get the nomination at this point.

Rubio got more votes among the ages 17-29, always something, some small hope for the future.

[Matchles]

It would have been interesting to see how Rubio would have fared if he actually got an endorsement from Romney. Romney was huge in Nevada pulling the Mormon vote.

[Tierbook]

Rubio got more votes among the ages 17-29, always something, some small hope for the future.

At this rate Trump will probably end up around double Rubio's votes, minimum. Currently Trumps at 46.7% vs Rubios 23.5%, and the lead is increasing.

[p291u]

I have to admit though, its amazing how spectacularly impotent the GOP establishment has been!

The GOP proper had severely underestimated Trump from day one. They viewed him as a joke to be ignored and now it's, quite frankly, too late. The Trump machine is in full gear and about to steam roll right over them. If you look across the aisle, the democrats are making the exact same mistake; especially Hillary. If people think she made a mistake underestimating Bernie's support, they are going to be in for a rude awakening when she goes up against Trump.

[Matchles]

The GOP proper had severely underestimated Trump from day one. They viewed him as a joke to be ignored and now it's, quite frankly, too late. The Trump machine is in full gear and about to steam roll right over them. If you look across the aisle, the democrats are making the exact same mistake; especially Hillary. If people think she made a mistake underestimating Bernie's support, they are going to be in for a rude awakening when she goes up against Trump.

I don't think it would be wise for Clinton or Sanders to address Trump right now. Let him continue on and quietly gather ammunition for the general. The far right might love his middle finger to the world attitude. But I'm not sure that will play with independents.

[p291u]

I don't think it would be wise for Clinton or Sanders to address Trump right now. Let him continue on and quietly gather ammunition for the general. The far right might love his middle finger to the world attitude. But I'm not sure that will play with independents.

Trump is an independent. That's the whole point. Watch right wing media and they are all having a meltdown over the fact that republican voters simply don't care about Trump's left wing policies. By running as and eliminating the GOP field and giving them a bone... Trump is essentially an independent, with defacto support from half the spectrum, running a race against a democrat.

[Matchles]

Trump is an independent. That's the whole point. Watch right wing media and they are all having a meltdown over the fact that republican voters simply don't care about Trump's left wing policies. By running as and eliminating the GOP field and giving them a bone... Trump is essentially an independent, with defacto support from half the spectrum, running a race against a democrat.

He can be whatever he wants. He doesn't appeal to any voters from the center-right to the far left. That is like 2/3rds of the country.

[Guy4123]

He can be whatever he wants. He doesn't appeal to any voters from the center-right to the far left. That is like 2/3rds of the country.

Are you saying that because he doesn't appeal to you, or do you have some poll data of some sort that says this? I've never actually looked into it.

[p291u]

He can be whatever he wants. He doesn't appeal to any voters from the center-right to the far left. That is like 2/3rds of the country.

Are you a representative of every voter from the center-right to the far left? You cannot possibly make that statement with any level of accuracy. Also, Trump has shown to be very adaptable. His current campaign strategy is designed specifically to win the GOP nomination. When June rolls around and Trump has his nomination, his gears will shift and his message will be another one meticulously crafted to target support outside the mainstream GOP base.

[Matchles]

Are you saying that because he doesn't appeal to you, or do you have some poll data of some sort that says this? I've never actually looked into it.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ection-voters/

But Trump would start at a disadvantage: Most Americans just really don’t like the guy.

Contra Rupert Murdoch’s assertion about Trump having crossover appeal, Trump is extraordinarily unpopular with independent voters and Democrats. Gallup polling conducted over the past six weeks found Trump with a -27-percentage-point net favorability rating among independent voters, and a -70-point net rating among Democrats; both marks are easily the worst in the GOP field. (Trump also has less-than-spectacular favorable ratings among his fellow Republicans.)

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Are you a representative of every voter from the center-right to the far left? You cannot possibly make that statement with any level of accuracy. Also, Trump has shown to be very adaptable. His current campaign strategy is designed specifically to win the GOP nomination. When June rolls around and Trump has his nomination, his gears will shift and his message will be another one meticulously crafted to target support outside the mainstream GOP base.

You talk as though video doesn't exist. Every thing he says now is available to be used against him in the general. And I can say that he is unpopular amongst independents and democrats, see the 538 article above.

[p291u]

You talk as though video doesn't exist. Every thing he says now is available to be used against him in the general. And I can say that he is unpopular amongst independents and democrats, see the 538 article above.

Cruz had the same idea with video of Trump going on record to say things like he supports single payer healthcare and that he is "pro choice in every respect". Two things you would expect to implode your campaign within the republican field. Problem is that the voters simply didn't care. Trump has an uncanny ability to control conversation and withstand this kind of stuff. And let's not forget that the Clinton's have some pretty massive skeletons in their closet. The point here is that Hillary is salivating at the idea of running against Trump because she thinks the exact same thing the GOP establishment did 6 months ago.

[SidFwuff]

You talk as though video doesn't exist. Every thing he says now is available to be used against him in the general. And I can say that he is unpopular amongst independents and democrats, see the 538 article above.

That's from before the first primaries and assumed Trump would lose though. Check the date.

He's winning. CNN interviewed people that are voting for Trump- they're not GOP, but independents. Many of which voted for Obama

If you read virtually any news articles (doesn't matter from who), they explain that Trump isn't campaigning as Cruz and Rubio are: He's going after the independents and people who don't typically vote. He's gotten many of people to sign up for the primaries that have never done so before- look at the New Hampshire Primary where they had a record turnout despite a snow storm.

Rubio has the typical GOP vote. Cruz has the Teaparties and Evangelicals.

Trump's got independents and people that don't typically vote- and is starting to sway more and more GOP to his side as time goes on- he got a lot of the Evangelical votes in South Carolina.

At least, that's my understanding (I'm not American). You can link articles which say Trump doesn't have a shot because most Americans won't vote for him.

On the other hand, that's what all the news articles and people here on MMO-C said months ago when Trump announced he was running. I'm reading now he's gotten more votes from Nevada than Cruz and Rubio combined

[Matchles]

Cruz had the same idea with video of Trump going on record to say things like he supports single payer healthcare and that he is "pro choice in every respect". Two things you would expect to implode your campaign within the republican field. Problem is that the voters simply didn't care. Trump has an uncanny ability to control conversation and withstand this kind of stuff. And let's not forget that the Clinton's have some pretty massive skeletons in their closet. The point here is that Hillary is salivating at the idea of running against Trump because she thinks the exact same thing the GOP establishment did 6 months ago.

Cruz's mistake is believing that facts matter in the GOP primary. The right created this with their fact-free, opinion-based media that just exists to confirm the biases of their viewers. That won't play in the general.