11 chilling predictions for what the world will look like in 10 years

[Crispin]

Private intelligence firm Stratfor predicts many countries will experience chaos and decline in the coming decade

Russia will collapse ...

"There will not be an uprising against Moscow, but Moscow's withering ability to support and control the Russian Federation will leave a vacuum,"

... and the US will have to use its military to secure the country's nukes.

Russia's nuclear-weapons infrastructure is spread across a vast geographic area. If the political disintegration Stratfor predicts ever happens, it means that weapons, fissile materials, and delivery systems could end up exposed in what will suddenly become the world's most dangerous power vacuum.

The breakout of Russia's nuclear-weapons stockpile will be "the greatest crisis of the next decade," according to Stratfor.

Germany is going to have problems ...

Germany has an export-dependent economy that has richly benefited from the continent-wide trade liberalization enabled through the EU and the euro, but that just means the country has the most to lose from a worsening euro crisis and a resulting wave of "Euroscepticism."

... and Poland will be one of Europe's leaders.

Look a little to Germany's east, and things won't be quite so bad.

"At the center of economic growth and increasing political influence will be Poland," the report says.

There will be four Europes.

It wasn't long ago that European unity seemed like an unstoppable historical force, with political and economic barriers between countries dissolving and regionalism and nationalism disappearing from the continent's politics.

But in 10 years, that may all seem like a distant memory. The Decade Forecast talks about four Europes that will become increasingly estranged from one another: Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, and the British islands. They will still have to share the same neighborhood, but they won't be as closely connected as they were before.

Turkey and the US will have to be close allies, but for an unexpected reason.

"Turkey will continue to need US involvement for political and military reasons," the report says. "The United States will oblige, but there will be a price: participation in the containment of Russia. The United States does not expect Turkey to assume a war-fighting role and does not intend one for itself. It does, however, want a degree of cooperation in managing the Black Sea."

China will face one huge problem.

China may have a rough decade ahead as economic growth slows, leading to widespread discontent toward the ruling Communist Party. But the party will not liberalize, which means that its only viable option for controlling the gathering chaos while remaining in power will be to increase internal oppression.


Japan will be Asia's rising naval power.

"Right now [Japan] depends on the United States to guarantee access," the forecast states. "But given that we are forecasting more cautious US involvement in foreign ventures and that the United States is not dependent on imports, the reliability of the United States is in question. Therefore, the Japanese will increase their naval power in the coming years."

The South China Sea islands won't start a war, but there's a catch.

"Fighting over the minor islands producing low-cost and unprofitable energy will not be the primary issue in the region," the report predicts. "Rather, an old three-player game will emerge. Russia, the declining power, will increasingly lose the ability to protect its maritime interests. The Chinese and the Japanese will both be interested in acquiring these and in preventing each other from having them."

There will be 16 mini-Chinas.

China's economy will slow down, and growth in production capacity will flatline. That's actually good news for a handful of countries. The entry-level manufacturing jobs that China used to gobble up will migrate to 16 emerging economies with a combined population of 1.15 billion.

So while China's growth will stall, leading to unforeseeable political and economic consequences, Mexico, Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic, Peru, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, the Philippines, and Indonesia could see improving economic fortunes over the next decade as more manufacturing jobs arrive.

US power will decline.

With the world becoming an even more disorderly and unpredictable place over the next 10 years, the US will respond by being increasingly judicious about how it picks its challenges, rather than taking an active leadership role in solving the world's problems.

A growing economy, surging domestic-energy production, declining exports, and the safety of being in the most stable corner of the world will give the US the luxury of being able to insulate itself against the world's crises.

Thoughts on this? Imo they're really taking it to the extreme, I don't see the Russian collapse nor the European collaps within the next 10 years, it seems more like a worst case scenario imho.

I'd recommend reading the article, it's not terribly long, but didnt want to c/p it completely.

[Deleted]

It's hard to believe, considering the Stratfor compagny sells security advising and councelling, it's not surprising for them to foretell such a scenario

[Hana Song]

I don't like the things about Japan

[Bakis]

Stratfor that got hacked and kept client information such as passwords and creditcard info in plain text in their database.
That was good chuckle, as is this report of extreme outcomes by them.

[Afrospinach]

Russia will collapse ...and the US will have to use its military to secure the country's nukes.

Never really thought of that one, but good call imo. Probably not in a decade but at some point. How do you dismantle a nuclear country?

There will be 16 mini-Chinas.

Disagree with the African countries listed here. Good luck guys, the Chinese import their own workers to work in the mines these days for a reason. Africa has very little hope of being the next china in spite of checking a few interesting boxes. What needs to be done, will increasingly be done by more mechanised methods in more advanced, less corrupt, more reliable countries imo.

[apples]

b-b-but muh president

hes gonna raise/lower the military budget which will invariably effect us power

r-right?

[Xeones]

Poland will be one of Europes leaders, why? "Because"

Was this before or after the fears of fascism in Poland?

[Kalyria]

Still looking for "chilling" predictions in the post...
Most of what's listed is great and a few things are neither good nor bad.

[Deleted]

The world will definitely end when the sun goes out and turns into a red dwarf, and everything in the solar system will go dark and freeze at absolute zero temperatures.

[Breccia]

"US power will decline"

Oh thank God. I don't want us to think we're in charge of everything all the damn time anymore.

[breadisfunny]

here's my prediction if trump gets elected:

[Mahmeya]

Japan might develop a serious navy, but with the procreation rate (or more, lack of procreation), they will sooner be out of staff to operate it. In article I was reading recently they said that population of Japan is dying out by 1 million per year.

About Russia, not sure if they even have real control. Instead of fixing their own problems (especially alcoholism and people dying on the roads - internet is full of videos of drunken russians or russian car crashes) they create more, like their approach to sexual minorities (even making game like The Sims 18+ because it allows homosexual relationships while it's 12+ elsewhere - WTF?), attacking Ukraine or doing what looks like attempt to start new cold war and sometimes probably disagreeing with EU/US just for the sake of disagreeing...

EU: Russia, you are doing bad stuff, we're going to stop selling goods to you.
Russian government: Cool! We will stop buying stuff from you, just in case you'd like to sell us something
Result: politicians are happy, food prices surge up, because without import from EU the supply is not enough. But no problem, vodka is not imported...

[Gheld]

Any "article" that starts with a number and then proceeds to list things has 0 credibility.

[Independent voter]

Well the people who wrote the report seem legit. The US will decrease defense spending simply because there is no reason for a huge military in the future, the world has become a tamer place, less Wild West.

[Khaza-R]

Personally I don't see many of these happening within a decade. Probably only the one with the US military decrease and teh separate regions for the EU

Japan might develop a serious navy, but with the procreation rate (or more, lack of procreation), they will sooner be out of staff to operate it. In article I was reading recently they said that population of Japan is dying out by 1 million per year.

I was going to say this same thing. Japan is facing severe population decline in the future. The future of its economy is incredibly unstable because of this. I don't see a circumstance where they would spend the money and human capital to maintain a naval fleet.

[Reeve]

I don't see Russia's collapse happening in the next 10 years, like at all. Economic hardship? Sure. Collapse? Hell no.

[IIamaKing]

16 mini China's, Oo I want one.

[Kuntantee]

It's rather hard to believe Russia collapsing in 10 years. They will, eventually, just like USSR but 10 year seems a bit too early. However, the decisions to their collapse are being made during these days in Syria. Turkey is same as always, the proxy of USA. One thing I agree is the European prediction. "4 Europe" seems fit to the reality of Europe and the original vision of European Union.

[AeneasBK]

Friedman is certainly trying to push the "dissolution of the EU" line, or it's just coincidence I've seen a few things from him recently about it.

[ItachiZaku]

President Trump will unite the world.